The Phillies have their strengths and weaknesses. They carry the best starting rotation in baseball, where they’ve thrown out seven different options who have all almost always put together at least a competitive outing. The infield still carries Bryce Harper and Trea Turner.
The bullpen hasn’t been a big strength for the entire season but has seen some recent developments that look encouraging.
On the surface, Orion Kerkering is one of them. Since May 1, Kerkering has worked in 14 games and 12 innings pitched. He has a 0.75 ERA in that span and opposing hitters are hitting just .195.
He has not allowed a lot of hard contact either, with an average exit velocity of just 83.5 mph and a hard hit rate of 21.9%.
All of that is great and part of the appeal with Orion Kerkering but some concerns make it hard to believe he is back to being the same reliever he was a year ago.
Kerkering has taken a massive step back from a swing-and-miss standpoint this season. He is striking out just 19.4% of hitters he’s facing, well below average for right-handed relievers, and carries a whiff rate of 23.5%.
Since May 1, both of these numbers have gotten worse. His strikeout rate is down to 18.4% and the whiff rate is down to 18.7%. His sweeper has not been the swing-and-miss pitch it was advertised to be.
It is not like Kerkering has adjusted to throwing consistent strikes. Part of what made him so good in 2024 was that he had strong control with a good strikeout rate. He is walking 12.8% of hitters he’s facing overall, and that has gotten worse since May 1.
What has made Kerkering work as of late is because of how much weak contact he generates but given his erratic command, it is hard to feel comfortable with how many balls in play he’s allowing, combined with the free passes.
All of this is to say that Kerkering isn’t back to being the same caliber of reliever he was in 2024, the one that allowed them to justify letting Jeff Hoffman in the offseason.
Kerkering’s whiff rate is down four percent from last year, K-rate is down nine percent, and his walk rate is down six percent. There are too many signs of someone who’s bound for regression if the command and stuff don’t start playing up in the future.