Box Score
Bailey Ober: 7 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
Home Runs: Trevor Larnach (10)
Bottom 3 WPA: Bailey Ober (-.283), Harrison Bader (-.147), Kody Clemens (-.141)
Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

chart(65).png.446aaad2a950dcef33a3af64e40550df.png

Early results favored Minnesota. Trevor Larnach found a 2-0 fastball to his liking and obliterated the pitch 421 feet out to right center to start the scoring. He made the great right-center wall look tiny.

The next frame, Brooks Lee singled sharply and Royce Lewis blasted a double into left-center to place two men in scoring position. Kody Clemens grounded out productively. Christian Vázquez smoked a run-scoring double. The Twins’ offense was moving; it seemed like the team was going to roll into a straightforward victory.

 

An uneventful third begat a fortune change. That 3-0 lead—appearing even greater thanks to a feeling of untapped potential—lost potency in a second. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was hit by a Bailey Ober pitch, which looked innocuous enough; Addison Barger’s two-run homer the very next pitch completely altered the tenor. Suddenly, Minnesota’s lead looked slim. The good vibes from earlier were completely gone.

One inning later, Ober allowed a single and a frankly catchable double that Matt Wallner bailed on to place two runners on. Bo Bichette—famous for his contact and unusual swing choice—dropped the droopiest single man could conceive into center to plate both Blue Jays. Those three previous runs never felt further away. 

A George Springer homer extended Toronto’s lead to two. All the while, the frames for Minnesota’s hitters melted into themselves; the Blue Jays “starter,” Paxton Schultz, gave way to Eric Lauer, who gave way to Mason Fluharty, who gave way to [insert every other pitcher here] with each subsequent reliever holding the once seemingly potent offense scoreless. And then the Blue Jays plated a sixth run in the eighth. Sure. 

The Twins finally fought back. At least a little. Larnach and Ty France reached base, auguring Rocco Baldelli to pinch-hit Ryan Jeffers against the lefty Brendon Little. He worked the count full before a curve below the zone inspired umpire Jordan Baker to punch him out. The pitch wasn’t a strike. The only solace Jeffers could take was in offering his displeasure to Baker. He was then ejected. So it goes. Royce Lewis later singled to bring the game within two, yet the sense of missed opportunity hung over the team as the game lurched into the ninth inning.

That sense was well-placed: Minnesota never offered a legitimate threat on the lead again. Jeff Hoffman walked one on his way to striking out the side to send the team home wondering what happened to the feeling they conjured after such a successful start to the game. 

Notes: 

Lewis, whose slump has increasingly become a concern in Twins Territory, may have broken out of it tonight. Lewis was 3-3, with a double, an RBI and scored a run. 

Attendance for the Toronto series is typically high, as Canadians often travel to Target Field to see their team. With the ongoing trade dispute with Canada, there was some question if that would be the case this year. If it slowed visitors down, it’s not apparent. Tonight’s attendance was 26,847, and the Friday night game for last year’s Blue Jays game, on August 30th, was 24,623. 

Post-Game Interview:

 

What’s Next?
The Twins and Blue Jays continue their melee with a Saturday scrum starting at 12:10 PM. Chris Paddack will start opposite Kevin Gausman. 

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

Screenshot2025-06-06200519.png.8f00202191981eceee583443784e0dcf.png