CINCINNATI (WKRC) – The promise and potential of top baseball prospects always brings with it plenty of optimism, but unless that turns into consistent production teams like the Reds will continue spinning their wheels in the mud of mediocrity, which is where they currently find themselves: a team full of promise and potential with not enough players with bona fides.
Remember the promise second baseman Matt McLain showed in 2023 when he slashed .290/.357/.507 in 403 plate appearances? Injuries robbed him of his 2024 season and he has been a mess at the plate so far this season with a slash line of .161/.295/.291. It’s fair to wonder if McLain’s career path will take an upward trajectory again let alone ever come close to what he did in 2023.
First baseman Christian Encarnacion-Strand flashed real potential in 2023 as well when he slashed .270/.328/.477 with 13 homers in 241 plate appearances. The last two seasons have been a myriad of injuries that have helped lead the way to a .508 OPS in 183 plate appearances.
Third baseman Noelvi Marte looked like he was turning the corner after his disastrous 2024 season, but after a 16 for 34 stretch raised his average from .083 to .370, he is 4 for 24 since (and now on the injured list). Take the hot stretch out and he 5 for 36 otherwise.
Spencer Steer put together a solid 2023 season in his first regular stint as a Major League starter with a .271/.356/.464 slash line with 23 homers in 665 plate appearances. Those numbers dipped to .225/.319/.402 with 20 homers in 656 plate appearances, and this season he is at .193/.270/.307 with three homers in 126 plate appearances. Sure, some of the issues this season can be traced to a shoulder problem has he has been dealing with, but it also shows a player with a declining form.
Then there is mercurial shortstop Elly De La Cruz. He is the epitome of a shooting star where the times he flickers his brightest it is special, but unfortunately those flickers go by quickly and it leaves you scratching your head wondering if he is going to be the superstar he was projected to be. For all of the prodigious power he has flashed — three of his career homers are 450 feet or longer — he has all of 43 homers in 1,285 career plate appearances and is on pace to hit 22 this season. Good for sure, but not great. For all of the speed he has shown there are also the confounding baserunning blunders. Then there’s his performance in the field where he makes some spectacular plays that frankly only he can make, but there is also the league-high seven errors this season after a league-high 29 last season.
Some of the promise and potential has panned out or is panning out. There is starting pitcher Hunter Greene, who has emerged as one of the top pitchers in the National League, and both Andrew Abbott and Nick Lodolo are quality pitchers when healthy.
Brady Singer has been a welcome addition to the rotation and his current WHIP of 1.14 and ERA of 3.66 are almost identical to last season with the Royals (1.27 WHIP and 3.77 ERA in 32 starts). It’s safe to assume barring injury he will be a solid performer this season.
Unfortunately, some of those who have compiled bona fides have only done so at an average to below average level, so if they get hot they will eventually gravitate back toward the mean.
Remember when Gavin Lux led the National League in batting average just nine days ago? Alas, he’s been in a 1-for-21 slump since and has seen his average plummet from .352 to .295 as of May 7. Why, you wonder, did things go sideways so quickly? Well, in addition to the obvious that slumps happen in baseball, it’s because his career slash line, in addition to this season, is .255/.331/.385 in 1,620 plate appearances. In other words, his bona fides achieved over a lengthy period of time suggest an average hitter at best.
Center fielder TJ Friedl had a hot stretch that his batting average get as high as .307 and his OPS as high as .760, but he is currently hitting .264 with an OPS of .670. That is coming off a season in which he hit .226 with an OPS of .690.
Jake Fraley is a fourth outfielder at best, who has seen his OPS go from .812 in 2022 to .783 in 2023 to .716 last season and is currently at .678 this season.
Then there is the bullpen where Alexis Diaz was expected to be the closer heading into spring training, but he pitched so poorly there that he lost the closer role, and then was demoted to Class AAA Louisville.
Manager Terry Francona tried Ian Gibaut in that role and it lasted all of one game, and he since turned it over to 34-year-old Emilio Pagan, who had 13 saves over the previous four seasons combined. Pagan has saved eight games, but has also blown two saves, which is tied for sixth-most in MLB.
It’s now the third season since that class of prospects came up and brought excitement and optimism back to Great American Ball Park and the Reds should spend this season allowing them to sink or swim.
If they don’t start to cash in on that potential and promise, it’s time in the next offseason to get better talent evaluators and then attain players with enough bona fides to compete for the playoffs.