The Yankees have rebounded from a frustrating weekend series against the Boston Red Sox with two strong wins in Kansas City. Tonight, they’ll go for the sweep at Kauffman Stadium, looking to secure the first season series sweep of the Royals in 24 years, when they went 6-0 in 2001.

Will Warren is on the mound for the Yankees, looking to get back to the strong baseball he played in May. After a nightmare start at Chavez Ravine on May 31st, Warren started strong against the Red Sox on June 6th, before struggling with command and making a once-blowout too close for comfort. Despite that, he improved to 4-3 on the season. Warren enters play with a 5.34 ERA (76 ERA+), 3.34 FIP, and 1.41 WHIP in 57.1 innings. The incredible disparity between his ERA and FIP is a good sign, but he’ll need to shake off recent command woes tonight after walking four in each of his last two starts.

The Royals’ offense is a nice respite after facing the Dodgers and Red Sox, as their 85 wRC+ as a team ranks 26th in baseball. Through the first two games of this series, they’ve scored just five total runs, with three of them coming in the ninth inning yesterday in a colorful inning. Kansas City strikes out less than everyone but Toronto, so he might not be racking up the K’s tonight.

Seth Lugo takes the bump for the Royals for his second start of the season against the Yankees. On April 14th, Lugo rolled early but was swarmed by four solo home runs and took the loss despite pitching into the seventh. In a season where he has not garnered much run support, Lugo is 3-5 with a 3.46 ERA (120 ERA+) and 4.86 FIP in 65 innings over 11 starts, managing to put together a strong season despite a career low in strikeout rate and his highest walk rate since he was a reliever on the Mets.

The 35-year-old right-hander’s profile screams regression, as he’s allowing way too much hard contact, not getting nearly enough whiffs, and his velo is steadily declining. He’s likely managed to stay afloat thanks to his one-of-a-kind repertoire, which always keeps hitters guessing. Look at this mess.

Baseball Savant

Expect more curveballs and changeups to this Yankee lineup, chock-full of lefties. Lefties are slashing .266/.327/.489 off of Lugo with an average exit velocity of 92.0 mph. Not to mention, these numbers are below expectations.

Speaking of the Yankees’ lineup, it’s the first one of 2025 without Aaron Judge, as the history-making slugger will get a day off amidst a brutal stretch where the Yankees will play games on 16 consecutive days, the longest streak of the season. Judge has historically struggled against Lugo, so it’s not a bad idea (it’s also right around the time of his first rest day last year). Trent Grisham and Ben Rice bat at the top, while J.C. Escarra will fill in and bat seventh after Austin Wells’ strong first two games. Pablo Reyes will make just his second start in the last month, batting eighth and playing second base. No Jazz Chisholm Jr., but it looks like he avoided a major injury after leaving each of the last two games early. Also note that the Yankees made a small roster move, swapping out Brent Headrick for Scott Effross in the ‘pen.

KC puts out a lineup with all their regulars, as Salvador Perez gets the half-day at DH, and they continue to rotate Jac Caglianone between first base and right field. Freddy Fermin is behind the plate, and Nick Loftin will make his first start of the series, batting seventh in left field. Drew Waters will come off the bench.

How to watch

Location: Kauffmann Stadium — Kansas City, MO

First pitch: 7:40 pm ET

TV broadcast: YES, FanDuel Sports Kansas City, MLB Network

Radio broadcast: WFAN 660/101.9 FM, WADO 1280 / Royals Radio Network

Online stream: Gotham Sports App, MLB.tv (out-of-market)

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