The Braves decided yesterday to start Grant Holmes today. Chris Sale, who was scheduled for today, has been pushed to the Mets’ home series opener on Tuesday. It shows a lot of confidence for a 31-38 team. Maybe the Braves feel that they are closer to the 37-32 pace that their expected win-loss record says they should be.
How confident are you in a Braves win today? Confident enough to push Chris Sale to Tuesday? Any other year where the Braves are facing maybe the worst team in 100 years in terms of record this would be a gimme. ESPN Bet, who hasn’t updated their scheduled starter for Sunday at this time of writing, had the Braves win a 82% win expectancy. Fangraphs has them a 70% favorite with Holmes. But they also have the Braves as a favorite in each Mets game, even Thursday’s Bryce Elder versus Clay Holmes matchup. I like their chances probably more than I should, but Fangraphs’ baked-in numbers are fanboy level.
Yes, the Rockies are generationally bad, and if you are trying to give yourself the best chance to rejoin the playoff picture, you probably have to do this. The Braves have moved around their starters versus the Mets before, but usually for late season meetings. On the other hand, the Braves have proven that the ability to lose any game, no matter how large their lead. And they probably need Chris Sale to appear as often as possible.
Well, there’s your choice today. Are we balling or not?
Daily Notes
Record: 31-38
Yesterday’s wOBA and xwOBA: .441 / .345 Friday | .288 | .218 Saturday (Season rank: 15th | 12th)
Yesterday’s opponent wOBA and xwOBA: .433 / .397 Friday | .140 / .160 Saturday (Season rank: 13th | 12th)
Yesterday’s homers: 2 | 1
Yesterday’s homers allowed: 1 | 0
Record when out-xwOBAing: 20-16 (League: 763-279)
Record when out-xwOBAed: 10-22 (League: 279-763)
Record when out-wOBAing: 28-7 (League: 873-170)
Record when out-wOBAed: 4-31 (League: 170-873)
Record when outhomering: 17-7 (League: 561-162)
Record when outhomered: 5-19 (League: 162-561)