The Orioles’ big win on Sunday felt like a therapeutic release for an offense that may (finally) be rediscovering its groove. They used 12 hits, including three home runs, to score 11 runs, beat a good left-handed starting pitcher, and secure yet another series sweep, their third in the last two weeks. At last, the Orioles are looking like the fun, offensive team they expected to be.

Over the Orioles’ last 20 games, they are 14-6. Much of that is due to drastic improvements from the pitching staff. But the offense has been better too. In that stretch, they have averaged 4.3 runs scored per game and have a 105 wRC+. Prior to that turnaround they were averaging just 3.8 runs per game and had a 97 wRC+.

It has not been a monumental shift, at least not yet. But the lineup has gone from slightly below average to slightly above average, and things are trending even further in the right direction.

Dynamic Duo

Don’t look now, but Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson are playing a lot like organizational cornerstones again. Those promising peripheral stats Rutschman has had all season are finally turning into concrete numbers. He’s hitting .366/.438/.561 in June. Henderson’s rocky April made way for a solid May, followed by an MVP-esque June. He’s got a .383/.442/.489 line this month. So, are the contract extension talks back on?

Jokes aside, the Orioles have been particularly hard-headed about Rutschman’s performance this season. Yes, his batted ball data has looked intriguing, but it wasn’t translating into actual hits the last few months. And yet, Rutschman was installed as the second or third hitter in the Orioles lineup on a daily basis anyway. Now that things are clicking, there’s nothing to complain about.

Back to Work

There is no doubt that the lineup is getting healthier too.

Jordan Westburg, Colton Cowser, and Gary Sánchez have all returned within the last two weeks. The trio has combined for seven home runs in just 58 total at-bats in that time. Getting back your everyday third baseman and left fielder, along with a backup catcher that you would like to use multiple times a week, is an understandably big boost.

Cedric Mullins and Ramón Laureano came back from much shorter IL stays recently as well. Mullins carried this lineup early in the year, and seems to have a hot hand again. He’s got an .872 OPS in June so far. Laureano has been a pleasant surprise, a capable fill-in at all three outfield positions. His presence lengthens the lineup or bench in a crucial way.

Growing Pains

On top of that, hard questions that were being asked of some of the Orioles young hitters are being answered lately, for better or worse.

Jackson Holliday has not reached his star potential yet, but the progress is clear. He has held down the leadoff spot for the Orioles until recently, and owns a 108 wRC+ on the season. He’s in a bit of a rough patch right now (76 wRC+ in June), something his manager Tony Mansolino has wisely given him some space to work through by lowering him in the order and handing him a day off. Regardless, the worst case scenario that some may have feared after his struggles in 2024 seems like it will be avoided.

Coby Mayo has experienced even more dramatic growing pains, optioned back to Triple-A twice last season and twice already in 2025, if you include spring training. His overall numbers remain ugly (.527 OPS), but things are looking better. Mayo is 8-for-19 over his last six games, with three doubles, five strikeouts, three walks, and a stolen base. And his defense at first base, a relatively new position for him, has looked solid as well. With Ryan Mountcastle on the IL, Mayo is taking advantage of regular playing time.

At the same time, Heston Kjerstad may have reached a crossroads in his career. The 26-year-old was given an extended run in the team to begin the season. He had two months to show what he could do, but ultimately failed to break through. Over 54 games the former number two overall pick hit .192/.240/.327 with four home runs, six walks, and 45 strikeouts. And both the eye test and the advanced metrics tell you that he’s not a very good fielder either. The Orioles mercifully optioned him to Norfolk last week, where he can hopefully reset and rediscover his stroke at the plate.

The Long and Winding Road

It was not supposed to take this offense so long to find its footing. The Orioles scored the fourth-most runs in MLB last year, and brought back almost an identical lineup. The thinking from within the warehouse had to be that with another year of experience their homegrown core would take another step forward and lead this team to its third straight postseason appearance.

Everything that Mike Elias and the front office did this winter indicated that they believed in their lineup completely. Tyler O’Neill was signed to replace Anthony Santander, space was left for Holliday to take on the second base job full-time, and any other changes were on the fringes of the offense. While an effort was made to improve the starting rotation, the ultimate outcome saw the Orioles sign older, theoretically safer, arms that lacked upside but would provide stability. This would be a team built on offense. All the pitching had to do was not screw things up.

Welp. Through two months of baseball, both parts of that plan failed. And while the Orioles have played better as of late, they are still 10 games under .500 and six games out of a playoff spot. Their odds at making the postseason are remote.

Elite Offense or Bust

But while the Orioles should continue to push for a playoff spot until they can’t, that no longer feels like the most crucial pursuit of what’s left in this season. Instead, the focus should be on what the team’s offense looks like from here on out.

That’s because Elias’ entire theory of building a competitive baseball team centers on the offense. He has made it clear in his drafts, forays into free agency, and deadline trades that he values young, controllable position players above all. He has been more likely to hold onto hitting prospects too long rather than trading them at their peak. And he has built a lineup almost entirely out of his own draft picks.

That looked like a stroke of genius coming into 2025. The Orioles were an explosive squad that had a relatively cheap lineup with years of control. Just a few tweaks here and there, and they were a World Series contender, baby!

Then this past April happened, and it all felt like a grave miscalculation. Maybe the Orioles’ hitting development process wasn’t as good as we thought. Maybe they should have traded some of their prospects. Maybe they had this all wrong. Brandon Hyde paid with his job in May, and at this rate Elias would be right behind him in October.

Moving Forward

Many of those worries will go away if this offense proves that the process by which they were built was right all along. The Orioles don’t necessarily have to make the playoffs either. But the lineup needs to show that Elias didn’t luck into a good offensive season in 2024. The first two months of the season can be chalked up to injuries, or poor clubhouse management, and the organization can move forward.

Rather than looking for a GM this winter, their current one—who has been crucial to rebuilding and modernizing this organization since 2018—can take his bruised ego and learn from his mistakes. A season like this can be spun as a positive, the year that made players, coaches, and executives take some medicine and understand that their methods have room for improvement.

Before we get too far down the road, let’s see how this all plays out first. June has been a lot of fun. The best players are healthy, and the Orioles are a worthwhile watch again. But we have more than three months left to decide if Elias’ theory of team building is right beyond 2025.