Flip your calendars back to March, Orioles fans, because it’s spring training all over again.
Well, not really. It’s just going to feel like it is. The Orioles will spend the next four nights taking on the Tampa Bay Rays at Steinbrenner Field, the spring training home of the Yankees. The Rays have taken up residence at the 11,026-seat ballpark this season after Hurricane Milton inflicted extensive damage upon their usual home stadium, Tropicana Field, last October. The O’s have played here before — most recently on March 11 — but never in the regular season.
So far, Steinbrenner Field has played as essentially a neutral ballpark, with an exactly league-average 100 Park Factor according to Statcast. Neither pitchers nor hitters have the advantage here. The Rays seem to be acclimating to their new digs just fine. A whopping 20 of their first 23 games this season came at home, during which they went 9-11, but they’ve since improved to 23-20 at Steinbrenner. They went 5-1 in their most recent homestand.
The Rays are on a roll, no matter where they play. Since bottoming out to a 21-26 record on May 19, they’ve ripped off an 18-6 hot streak in their last 24 games. Their calling card, as usual, is their pitching, particularly the bullpen, whose 3.05 ERA is the best in the American League. Closer Pete Fairbanks, Manuel Rodríguez, and ex-O’s prospect Garrett Cleavinger form a daunting late-inning trio, with each currently sporting an ERA+ of 162 or better.
While the Rays’ offense is middle of the pack overall, they do one thing quite well: steal bases. They’ve racked up an MLB-leading 97 steals in 119 attempts, an 81.5% success rate. Infielder José Caballero leads the majors with 25 swipes, and speedster Chandler Simpson had 19 steals in 35 games before being optioned back to the minors.
First baseman Jonathan Aranda has been the team’s best hitter, bringing a .902 OPS into the series. The offense has also been buoyed by 21-year-old star-in-the-making Junior Caminero as well as veteran infielders Yandy Díaz and University of Maryland alum Brandon Lowe. Díaz and Lowe have each been with the Rays for seven or more years, which is practically a century for a team that’s known for trading off its stars after relatively short stints.
The Orioles, coming off a sweep of the mediocre Angels, face a tougher task in trying to continue their momentum against an always tough Rays squad. Can the O’s keep their foot on the gas?
Game 1: Monday, 7:35 PM, MASN 2
RHP Zach Eflin (6-2, 4.08) vs. RHP Ryan Pepiot (3-6, 3.31)
The Rays have had a stable rotation this year, using the same five starters for all but one game, and the best of them will pitch in this series. First up is Pepiot, now in his second year with Tampa Bay after the club acquired him in the Tyler Glasnow trade in 2023. The 27-year-old has settled in as a solidly above average starter, working five or more innings in all but one of his 14 outings this year. Pepiot has a 2.72 ERA since April 20 and has amped up the strikeouts of late, with 17 Ks in his two June starts.
The Orioles will counter with the ex-Ray Zach Eflin, making his third start against Tampa Bay since they traded him to the Birds last July. He dominated the Rays for seven shutout innings Aug. 9 but lost Sept. 7, giving up homers to Díaz and Taylor Walls. Eflin looked a bit shaky early after his return from the IL in May, giving up 15 runs in his first three starts, but has stabilized with a 1.83 ERA in his three outings since. If the O’s don’t pull off a miraculous run by the trade deadline, it’s a good bet that Eflin could be dealt mid-season for the second straight year.
Game 2: Tuesday, 7:35 PM, MASN 2
RHP Dean Kremer (5-7, 4.99) vs. RHP Zack Littell (6-6, 3.84)
The O’s got unconventional with Kremer last time out, using opener Keegan Akin to handle the top of the order in the first inning before Kremer came out of the bullpen. It worked well enough, as Kremer ended up pitching seven strong frames, but one bad inning — two dingers, four runs — gave him no shot at outdueling Tarik Skubal. Kremer has had quite a bit of success versus the Rays recently, tossing six scoreless innings against them last year and 11 innings of one-run ball in 2023. He has particularly dominated Díaz (1-for-16).
The Rays previously worked their pitching magic on Littell, a journeyman reliever whom they claimed in 2023 and converted to a starter with promising results, but this year he’s been more hittable. His FIP is 5.41 and he’s coughed up a league-worst 21 home runs in 14 starts. The O’s offense has a chance to flash its power in this game, particularly Gunnar Henderson, who has homered twice off Littell as part of a 7-for-15 career performance.
Game 3: Wednesday, 7:35 PM, MASN 2
TBD vs. RHP Taj Bradley (4-5, 4.35)
The 24-year-old Bradley, in his third major league season, has shown flashes of brilliance but is yet to emerge as a dependable starter for the Rays. This year he’s been held back by a lack of command, averaging nearly four walks per nine innings, so expect the O’s offense to work some deep counts. His June performance has been all over the map, as he followed up a seven-inning, 10-strikeout masterpiece against the Astros by getting bombed for seven runs in four innings by lowly Miami. The Orioles historically have hit Bradley well, tagging him for 14 runs in 19.1 innings (6.52 ERA) in four career starts.
Although Wednesday would normally be Charlie Morton’s turn to pitch on regular rest, he is listed as Thursday’s starter instead, leaving a hole in the O’s rotation. The Orioles could try to cobble together a bullpen game started by someone like Akin or Scott Blewett, or they might summon Trevor Rogers from Triple-A. Rogers has put up middling numbers for Norfolk but pitched a gem in his one start for the Orioles this year, tossing 6.1 scoreless innings in Boston.
Game 4: Thursday, 7:35 PM, MASN 2
RHP Charlie Morton (3-7, 6.05) vs. RHP Drew Rasmussen (6-4, 2.55)
I gotta admit — a month ago I didn’t think there was any way Charlie Morton would still be on the Orioles’ roster in June, but here we are. Morton has started to turn his season around with three strong starts in his last four (mixed in with a clunker against the Athletics). His most recent start was his most dominant yet, as he racked up a season-high 10 strikeouts in five innings versus the Angels, and almost surely would have had more if a rain delay hadn’t ended his night early. He’s facing one of his former teams in the Rays, for whom he was an All-Star in 2019.
The finale will represent the toughest test for the O’s offense in Rasmussen, who’s been far and away the best Tampa Bay starter this year. His 2.0 WAR and 153 ERA+ lead the club, and he boasts a sub-1.00 WHIP. At one point this year he threw four consecutive scoreless starts of five innings or more. While he’s not a huge strikeout guy, he throws an excellent, high-spin fastball that’s very difficult for hitters to square up. In eight career games against the Orioles, Rasmussen has never lost. This might be a good day for the O’s to rest Cedric Mullins and Ramón Urías, who are a combined 0-for-22 lifetime against Rasmussen.
Poll
How many games will the Orioles win against the Rays?
5%
4 (Orioles sweep!)
(2 votes)
0%
0 (Orioles get swept)
(0 votes)
38 votes total