MY INTERNAL VOICE: Kate, just because it’s Pride Month, you do not have carte blanche to say whatever you want. If you ever want that BBWAA card, you must maintain a sense of decorum. You must provide some steely-eyed analysis of the biggest in-season trade, to date. You must Meet The Moment.
MY FINGERS ON THE KEYBOARD: DEVERS DIVA DOWN!
If you were off celebrating Dads and Grads yesterday, or just off in general, you might have missed the late-breaking news that the Red Sox traded away a keystone of their offense, and the last remaining fixture of their Old Guard, as Rafael Devers joined Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts as the latest high-profile Red Sox face cashing in the last points on his Dunkin’ Rewards card before moving westward. It’s a split that’s been a long time coming, ever since Devers was reportedly unhappy this spring when the team brought in Alex Bregman to play third base, and relations devolved from there. The Devers-devoid Red Sox, fresh off the highs of a sweep against the Yankees, now come into Seattle, fresh off their own sweep of the Guardians.
At a Glance
Red Sox
Mariners
Red Sox
Mariners
Game 1
Monday, June 16 | 6:40 pm
RHP Lucas Giolito
RHP LOGAN GILBERT
35%
65%
Game 2
Tuesday, June 17 | 6:40 pm
RHP Walker Buehler
RHP Bryan Woo
39%
61%
Game 3
Wednesday, June 18 | 1:10 pm
LHP Garrett Crochet
RHP Luis Castillo
51%
49%
*Game odds courtesy of FanGraphs
Team Overview
Overview
Red Sox
Mariners
Edge
Overview
Red Sox
Mariners
Edge
Batting (wRC+)
106 (5th in AL)
111 (2nd in AL)
Mariners
Fielding (OAA)
-3 (10th)
-10 (11th)
Red Sox
Starting Pitching (FIP-)
101 (7th)
103 (8th)
Red Sox
Bullpen (FIP-)
84 (4th)
106 (13th)
Red Sox
The Red Sox, like the Mariners, are clinging to a record just above .500, but they’re stuck in a much tougher division, having been surpassed recently by Tampa Bay and Toronto, who are both on some good runs of late, Tampa Bay especially. They made a big swing with the Devers trade, bringing in the thing they don’t have in their vaunted system by acquiring Kyle Harrison, a young, frontline lefty starter (YOUNG, like 23 years old young, put your Crochet comparisons away), and will supplant around Harrison with the rest of their young core as they build into the next version of the team. If this sounds a little like Dipoto’s “soft reset” of 2019, well, that’s a fair comparison, albeit with higher-powered prospects to bring in the next wave.
Red Sox Lineup
Player
Position
Bats
PA
K%
BB%
ISO
wRC+
Player
Position
Bats
PA
K%
BB%
ISO
wRC+
Jarren Duran
LF
L
335
23.9%
6.3%
0.153
101
Abraham Toro
DH
S
106
16.0%
2.8%
0.228
141
Carlos Narváez
C
R
209
23.9%
11.5%
0.178
132
Roman Anthony (Triple-A)
RF
L
265
21.1%
19.2%
0.203
147
Trevor Story
SS
R
286
29.7%
4.5%
0.126
73
Marcelo Mayer
3B
L
54
31.5%
7.4%
0.245
99
Kristian Campbell
2B
R
256
26.6%
11.3%
0.126
90
Romy Gonzalez
1B
R
94
23.4%
5.3%
0.172
135
Ceddanne Rafaela
CF
R
254
20.5%
5.5%
0.142
90
After eschewing Devers, the longest-tenured Red Sox is…. Pitcher Tanner Houck, who debuted in 2020. This is a lineup that is either extremely Young (recently-promoted top prospect Roman Anthony, ROY-adjacent Kristan Campbell, 2021 first-rounder Marcelo Mayer) or Expensive (old frenemy Alex Bregman, Coors Field escapee Trevor Story); also, Abraham Toro and his intense eyes are here, much to the delight of staffer Jake Parr.
Probable Pitchers
David Butler II-Imagn Images
Game 1 Pitching Matchup
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Lucas Giolito
39.2
17.9%
8.1%
12.8%
40.2%
5.45
4.54
Logan Gilbert
30.1
37.6%
5.1%
16.7%
51.5%
2.37
2.15
RHP Lucas Giolito
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
47.1%
93.3
83
83
112
0.350
Changeup
27.0%
82.3
102
63
125
0.397
Curveball
3.3%
79.2
Slider
22.6%
87.1
85
74
63
0.446
After a fantastic three-year run from 2019–21, Lucas Giolito has struggled through a couple of disappointing seasons and then a major elbow injury that wiped out his entire ‘24 season. He’s finally returned to the mound but his stuff is pretty diminished from his peak. The velocity is mostly there, but his arm angle has dropped by nearly ten degrees which has affected the shape of his pitches. Instead of inducing a ton of carry on his four-seamer, his arm angle has reduced the amount of ride on that pitch, turning it into a pretty mediocre heater. He hasn’t found his feel for his changeup or slider either, which means the whole package is pretty lackluster.
Game 2 Pitching Matchup
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Walker Buehler
55.2
20.9%
7.4%
19.3%
44.0%
5.01
5.10
Bryan Woo
82.1
22.1%
3.7%
10.9%
39.5%
3.39
3.57
RHP Walker Buehler
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
23.0%
94.0
98
63
88
0.47
Sinker
18.1%
93.8
91
91
108
0.299
Cutter
16.9%
90.3
94
70
101
0.406
Changeup
9.5%
90.0
78
Curveball
11.1%
77.8
107
50
65
0.375
Slider
12.2%
87.7
109
78
118
0.311
Sweeper
9.2%
80.6
109
The Red Sox signed Walker Buehler to a one-year deal this offseason, adding another starter coming off a significant arm injury to their rotation. He missed nearly two calendar years after undergoing his second Tommy John surgery in August 2022 and struggled in his final season in Los Angeles last year. Things haven’t gone much better in Boston. The thought was that the Red Sox pitching lab would help Buehler transition away from his diminished four-seamer in favor of his deep repertoire of secondary pitches. His four-seam usage is the lowest of his career, but the quality of all the rest of his pitches hasn’t been good enough for him to rebound to his previous ceiling.
Game 3 Pitching Matchup
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Garrett Crochet
96.1
30.6%
7.3%
10.7%
48.1%
2.24
2.73
Luis Castillo
79.1
20.0%
7.8%
8.9%
40.0%
3.29
3.88
LHP Walker Buehler
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
43.0%
96.1
109
144
101
0.320
Sinker
12.9%
95.5
101
150
79
0.375
Cutter
28.9%
91.0
120
108
119
0.292
Changeup
4.9%
88.7
88
Sweeper
10.3%
82.8
149
124
124
0.142
From a previous series preview:
Garrett Crochet was Boston’s big offseason acquisition and the team wasted no time in signing him to a massive six-year, $170 million extension that kicks in next year. After starting his career as an elite high-leverage reliever almost immediately upon being drafted by the White Sox, Crochet underwent Tommy John surgery in early 2022, costing him almost 18 months of development time. He moved to the rotation upon his return and was absolutely dominant last year. All five of his pitches had a whiff rate over 30% which is absolutely bonkers. He very quickly developed into a frontline ace and has as high a ceiling as any pitcher in baseball.
The Mariners handed Crochet one of his worst starts of the season back in late April. He allowed four runs on five hits and five walks in five innings, though he did strike out nine.
The Big Picture:
AL West Standings
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Recent Form
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Recent Form
Astros
41-30
0.577
—
W-W-W-W-W
Mariners
36-34
0.514
4.5
L-L-W-W-W
Rangers
36-36
0.500
5.5
L-W-W-W-W
Angels
33-37
0.471
7.5
W-W-L-L-L
Athletics
29-44
0.397
13.0
L-L-W-W-W
AL Wild Card Standings
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Recent Form
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Recent Form
Blue Jays
38-33
0.535
+1.5
W-W-L-L-L
Rays
39-32
0.549
+2.5
L-L-W-W-W
Mariners
36-34
0.514
—
L-L-W-W-W
Twins
36-35
0.507
0.5
W-L-L-L-L
Red Sox
37-36
0.507
0.5
W-W-W-W-W
It was a wild weekend of baseball: every team listed in the two tables above either swept or was swept by their opponent. The Astros, Athletics, Mariners, Rangers, Rays, and Red Sox all came up on the positive end while the Angels, Blue Jays, and Twins tumbled down the standings. Fresh off a pair of walk-off wins over Minnesota, the Astros will travel to Sacramento this week for a big four-game series. Meanwhile, the Twins will limp into Cincinnati having lost eight of their last 10 games. The Rangers have climbed back to .500 with their sweep of the White Sox and will host the reeling Royals this week. The Rays will host the Orioles while the Blue Jays host the D-Back this week — both of those AL East teams will be looking to extend their recent hot streaks and put some distance between them and the rest of the Wild Card field.