The San Diego Padres (38-31) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (36-34) wrap up a 3-game series at Chase Field in Phoenix Sunday. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Padres vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Diamondbacks lead 2-0

The Padres have had a tough time in the desert, dropping each of the past 2 games in Phoenix by a combined score of 13-8. San Diego has dropped 3 in a row, while going 3-7 in the past 10 games since June 4. The Under is on a 6-3 run in the past 9 games.

The Diamondbacks have picked up 5 consecutive victories, winning 2 series in a row. Arizona has won 6 straight at home, with the Over hitting in 3 of those 6 games. The Over is 7-3 in the Diamondbacks’ last 10 overall.

Arizona held off San Diego 8-7 in Saturday’s game. 1B/OF Gavin Sheets ended up 3-for-3 with a double and solo home run with a walk and 2 runs scored in Saturday’s loss, while 3B Manny Machado finished 1-for-4 with a double, walk and 2 RBIs. For Arizona, 3B Eugenio Suarez had a 3-run homer, the 20th of the season, while SS Geraldo Perdomo went 2-for-4 with a triple, 2 runs scored, a walk and 3 RBIs.

Padres at Diamondbacks projected starters

RHP Nick Pivetta vs. RHP Merrill Kelly

Pivetta (6-2, 3.48 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 72 1/3 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 4 ER (5 R), 8 H (1 HR), 2 BB, 3 K in 8-7 home loss in 10 innings vs. LA Dodgers Monday2025 road stats: 1-2, 4.94 ERA (31 IP, 17 ER), 5 HR, 1.45 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 in 6 startsLast appearance vs. Diamondbacks (relief): 3 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 3 K in 4-2 road loss May 28, 2023Career vs. Diamondbacks: 1-1, 4.63 ERA (11 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.71 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 in 2 starts (3 appearances)

Kelly (6-2, 3.18 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 0.99 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 82 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 8-4 win in 11 innings vs. Seattle Mariners Monday2025 home stats: 3-1, 2.59 ERA (41 2/3 IP, 12 ER), 5 HR, 0.98 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 in 7 starts2024 vs. Padres (1 start): Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 5-3 home setback Sept. 27Career vs. Padres: 9-4, 3.36 ERA (88 1/3 IP, 33 ER), 11 HR, 1.21 WHIP, 8.8 K/9 in 16 starts

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Padres at Diamondbacks odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:35 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Padres +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Diamondbacks -135 (bet $135 to win $100)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-190) | Diamondbacks -1.5 (+155)Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)Padres at Diamondbacks picks and predictionsPrediction

Diamondbacks 4, Padres 3

The DIAMONDBACKS (-135) are worth a play in the series finale behind Kelly. Arizona goes for the series sweep, and a sixth consecutive win. It has also won 5 of the past 7 meetings with San Diego. The Snakes have been a major thorn in the side of the Padres recently.

San Diego is 17-19 on the road and just 3-7 in its past 10 games. The Padres have also dropped 4 of Pivetta’s last 6 starts, including a loss to the lowly Colorado Rockies. Back Arizona.

The Padres +1.5 (-190) will cost you nearly twice your potential return if you’re looking for a little insurance, but taking them straight up just isn’t justifiable.

If you absolutely, positively have to bet the run line, Arizona is 4-1 on the run line in the past 5 as a favorite, although it failed to cover in Saturday’s 1-run win as a moderate favorite (-160), so be careful.

PASS.

UNDER 8.5 (-105) is worth playing lightly in Sunday’s matinee game.

The Under is 2-1 in the past 3 games for Arizona, but remember that the Over is 7-3 in the past 10 home games for the Diamondbacks, so go lightly.

For San Diego, the Under is 6-3 in the past 9 games, while going 10-5 in the previous 15 games since May 30.

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