Daily MLB Home Run Prop, Thursday 6/19 originally appeared on Athlon Sports.
Everyone knows fans dig the longball — so every day I post my favorite Home Run calls for a fun, low-risk approach to baseball betting. Make sure to bookmark our Athlon Sports Betting tab to be first on who’s going yard today.
Advertisement
Homers continue trending downward leaguewide, so finding the perfect spot’s more important than ever…
👎🏼 Elly De La Cruz didn’t go deep for us last night, but we’re right back on the grind today.
START TIME: Astros at Athletics 10:05 pm EST, Sutter Health Park in Sacramento
At this point in the season, we’ve established our basic foundation for sniffing out home runs. Identify the pitchers working up in the zone with limited stuff against hitters that lift and pull batted balls in above-average contextual environments.
Speaking of ideal hitting environments, the Sacramento Athletics, formerly of Oakland by way of Las Vegas, spend half their games in AAA Sutter Health Park — and the results match your likely expectations. The A’s minor-league home is a top-5 ballpark this season in terms of home runs (109), home run-to-flyball (17.7%), and barrel-to-home run rates (52.9%).
Advertisement
Tonight’s temperature’s forecasted around 80° F and my favorite sport meteorologist Kevin Roth’s bullish the prospect for offense, saying “Not nearly as toasty as last night, but winds are blowing out to left at 10-15mph, and it’s still decently warm. I like it for bats (as I almost always do)”.
The Athletics host Houston’s Colton Gordon, a 26-year-old rookie LHP with a track record for homers in the upper levels. Topping out at 91 mph, Gordon lacks swing-and-miss (19.5% Whiff, 98 Stuff+), instead relying on top-flight command metrics (30.9% Ball, 3.6% BB) to get by. Bottom line is the ball’s frequently in play (88% Zone-Contact), getting lifted (65% Flyball/Line Drive), and struck extremely well (40% Hard Hit, 10% Barrel). Checking boxes one at a time…
Enter Sacramento’s premiere bat, Brent Rooker… masher of southpaws. The big righty’s killed just about everyone this season but lefties should especially be on the lookout for his cartoonish production against LHP — 68 PA; .328 BA, 1.082 OPS, 43% Hard Hit, 41% Flyball, 43% Pull, 12% Barrel, .425 xwOBA, 4 HR. Giddy up.
LAGHEZZA’S LEAN:
Who’s coming with me for a BRENT ROOKER HOME RUN (+300) on Fanduel?
Advertisement
Thanks so much for reading — If you’re interested in upping your analytical game, come check out my best-selling MLB/NFL Betting & Fantasy Data Substack page.
Don’t be shy — DM me anytime on X @JohnLaghezza and I’ll hook you up with a free trial..
This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jun 19, 2025, where it first appeared.