Truth be told, this article would have worked better if the Cubs hadn’t been shut out Sunday and limited to one run Wednesday.

But this idea’s been floating in my head for a while, since the Cubs have been leading MLB in runs per game for much of the 2025 season, already scoring in double figures eight times (they had 22 such games all of last year).

And since the Cubs begin Thursday still leading MLB in runs per game at 5.87 and total runs with 223, I figured I’d take a look at this anyway, a good off-day topic.

In the Modern Era (since 1901), the Cubs’ record for runs in a season is 998, in 1930. That number can almost immediately be discounted from any meaning, since 1930 was an outlier of an offensive season because the baseballs were made differently that year, with lower seams. The entire National League hit .303 (!) that year and four of the eight teams scored 900+ runs. The 998 runs didn’t even lead the league — the Cardinals did, with 1,004.

Even the second-best Cubs run figure in the Modern Era, 982 in 1929, is from a season where offense was elevated throughout baseball. Two NL teams scored 900 runs and two more just missed, with 897 each.

After 1930, the Cubs scored 800 or more runs in 1931 (828), 1935 (847) and 1937 (811). Just one of those three (1935) was a pennant-winning year. After 1937, they didn’t cross the 800 mark again until 1970.

And so a more realistic view of recent good Cubs run-scoring seasons is from the Expansion Era, since 1962. Over that span, six Cubs teams have scored 800 or more runs:

2008: 855
1998: 831
2017: 822
2023: 819
2016: 808
1970: 806

Probably not coincidentally, four of those six teams won 90 or more games and made the postseason, and of course the 2016 World Series champs are one of them. The 2023 Cubs had an expected W/L record of 90-72, allowing 723 runs, and with some better bullpen work could have made the postseason. The 1970 team fell short of its expected W/L mark by even more. They allowed 679 runs and their expected W/L was 94-68. Again, bad relief pitching (Phil Regan had nine blown saves and the bullpen had a 4.63 ERA, third-worst in the NL) was their undoing.

What about this year’s team? At 5.87 runs per game, if they kept up that pace, the Cubs would score 951 runs.

I am going to say right now that’s not going to happen. In the Expansion Era, just 10 teams have scored 950 or more runs, and while this Cubs offense is good, I don’t think it’s that good.

Could the Cubs score 900 runs? That would be 5.56 per game, and given their hot start, it’s not impossible. It would require scoring 677 more runs over the 124 remaining games, an average of 5.46 per game.

More realistic is the possibility that the 2025 Cubs could overtake the 2008 team and score the most runs for any Cubs team in the Expansion Era. To score 856 runs this year — which would also be the most since 1930 — the Cubs would need to score 633 more runs in 124 remaining games, or 5.1 per game. That seems possible.

In any case, it’s been fun to see all the run-scoring and if the Cubs can keep it up along with getting some good bullpen work, this could be another postseason year on the North Side.

Poll
How many runs will the Cubs score in 2025?