With the trade deadline approaching, what are the Rays’ biggest needs?

TAMPA — Depending on your choice of algorithms, the Rays are somewhere between a good bet and a near-lock to make the playoffs.

That’s what you get when you win nearly three out of every four games from mid-May to late June. It doesn’t mean things can’t go wrong in the coming months, but the Rays have put themselves in an enviable position as the season approaches the halfway point.

And that leads to an obvious question as the calendar creeps forward:

What should they do before the July 31 trade deadline?

The easy answer is to buy. Of course, you buy. Certainly, you buy. Heck yes, you buy.

But what aisle should team president Erik Neander be shopping in? And how much should he spend?

The Rays have emerged as dark-horse contenders because they have one of the most balanced rosters in the American League. They began this week third in the AL in runs scored. They were sixth in starters’ ERA and second in bullpen ERA. Also, they were tied for second in defensive efficiency. The only other AL team in the top half-dozen in all of those categories was the Yankees.

The point is, Tampa Bay could improve its roster in any number of ways, but there is no glaring weakness that absolutely needs to be addressed.

Think about it. The Rays are getting All-Star-caliber production at first (Jonathan Aranda), second (Brandon Lowe) and third base (Junior Caminero). They haven’t gotten much offensive help at shortstop, but Ha-Seong Kim is on the way. Designated hitter Yandy Diaz is on pace for 25 homers and 91 RBIs. Catcher Danny Jansen got off to a brutal start but has a .774 OPS with six homers in his last 27 games, and Matt Thaiss has a .395 on-base percentage since being acquired from Chicago.

The rotation is tied for the AL lead in quality starts, and the bullpen has a 3.29 ERA.

Not a lot to complain about, huh?

ESPN recently listed its top 30 trade candidates with a handful of potential fits for each player. The Padres, for instance, were listed as a possible destination for 14 of the 30 candidates. The Phillies were listed 11 times, the Blue Jays and Cubs 10 each.

The Rays came up zero times as a potential fit.

That might have something to do with Tampa Bay’s budget policies, but it also speaks to the lack of obvious needs.

Maybe you could point to the back end of the rotation where Taj Bradley and Shane Baz have been maddeningly inconsistent, but the Rays potentially could welcome ace Shane McClanahan back sometime in August and still have Joe Boyle and his 1.83 ERA waiting in the wings at Triple-A Durham.

A team typically needs only four starters in the postseason, and between Ryan Pepiot, Drew Rasmussen, McClanahan and Zack Littell Tampa Bay could have one of the better rotations in October.

If there is one spot where the Rays could theoretically upgrade, it’s in the outfield. But even that might be tricky.

Josh Lowe doesn’t have great numbers (.230/.317/.381) since coming off the injured list in mid-May, but team officials consider him a long-term building block. With Kameron Misner heading back to Durham, Jake Mangum appears to be the No. 1 centerfielder and brings solid defense with good bat-to-ball skills and great speed. That leaves Chandler Simpson and Christopher Morel as a potential leftfield platoon.

Morel’s overall numbers have been dragged down by his work as a pinch-hitter/designated hitter (0-for-16), but he’s been fairly productive (.246/.320/.449) when playing in leftfield.

The Rays could certainly boost the offense with another bat in the outfield, but would the cost be worth the actual upgrade? ESPN listed Adolis Garcia, Taylor Ward, Luis Robert and Cedric Mullins as possible trade candidates, but their numbers are only marginally better — and in some cases worse — than Morel/Simpson/Mangum. Boston has a glut of outfielders, and Jarren Duran might be available but would probably come at a high price.

None of this means the Rays are going to stick to the status quo. Injuries and slumps could change things, and other names will almost certainly emerge. Come August, it would be surprising if Tampa Bay had not made a move or two.

Right now, there is chatter that closer Pete Fairbanks could be available. Considering his 2026 option could easily top $10 million based on his number of appearances in the season’s second half, there is some rationale for thinking that way. But Manny Rodriguez’s injury, and the struggles of Edwin Uceta and Mason Montgomery could make that a dangerous proposition.

So, yes, the Rays are in a position where they could/should be looking to enhance their roster for the stretch run.

Figuring out how is the tricky part.

John Romano can be reached at jromano@tampabay.com. Follow @romano_tbtimes.

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With the trade deadline approaching, what are the Rays’ biggest needs?

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