Heading into the season, the Baltimore Orioles were widely expected to be the Yankees’ biggest competition in the American League East. Although their rotation was expected to take a step back due to the loss of Corbin Burnes to the Diamondbacks in free agency, their young offense was expected to mash them to victory.
But as sometimes happens with young teams, a whole bunch of guys took a step back. Adley Rutschman and Ryan Mountcastle have been below average at the plate; both are currently hurt, too. While nobody would say Gunnar Henderson is having a bad season, it’s a step down from a 2024 campaign that was MVP-caliber in a normal year (one where Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr. didn’t go berserk). Taken together, the offense that led the AL with a 117 OPS+ last season has regressed to a 100 OPS+ — not bad, but not good enough to carry a pitching staff whose 4.86 ERA is better than only the Athletics in the Junior Circuit.
Since the start of June, the Orioles have played a lot closer to expectations, posting a 13-9 record under interim manager Tony Mansolino. Their 107 wRC+ in the month of June ranks 10th in baseball, but it’s surprisingly been their pitching staff behind the turnaround: their collective 3.4 fWAR this month has been the best in baseball. Still, despite this recent success, they simply dug themselves into too deep a hole with their 16-34 start. For the first time since 2021, Baltimore heads into the deadline as clear sellers (though they did unload Trey Mancini and Jorge López during an overachieving 2022).
With a bunch of young talent and a strong farm system, don’t expect the Orioles to blow everything up and start a rebuild. Realistically, only players on expiring contracts will be available, and the organization is more likely to prefer to trade them for pieces who are close the Majors. Still, should Baltimore decide to punt on the rest of the 2025 season — which is no guarantee — there will be some useful pieces available.
Offensively, despite the overall youth of the lineup, the O’s have a couple of bats they could dangle at the deadline. Whether the Yankees would consider them fits for this roster, however, is up for debate. Cedric Mullins is a serviceable bat, but he bats from the left side, and reports suggest that if New York adds an outfielder, it will be a right-handed bat to platoon with Jasson Domínguez. Although Ramón Laureano has been impressive, Baltimore may prefer to hold onto him unless they’re blown away by an offer since they hold a team option for 2026. Ryan O’Hearn, the presumptive starting DH in the All-Star Game for the American League, may be the best rental bat on the market, but the Yankees already have a number of 1B/DH types.
The most prominent recent deal between the Yankees and the Orioles was in 2018 for closer Zack Britton, who became a setup man in New York. Chances are, if the two teams link up on a trade, it will once again be for a pitcher. While Baltimore’s starting pitching options are less than stellar — Zach Eflin, who the Yankees roughed up for six runs last week, and veteran rookie Tomoyuki Sugano are the two best options, and both come with question marks — they have a small army of middle relief options. Seranthony Domínguez or Gregory Soto have both been decent bullpen arms (though Phillies fans with a good memory might caution you from trusting them too much), and the Yankees might see Yennier Cano a prime candidate for the Matt Blake renaissance treatment.
At the end of the day, the Orioles don’t match up as well with the Yankees as they frequently did during the late 2010s (when we were inundated with Manny Machado articles every other deadline). Still, there’s room for a deal to be had — assuming Baltimore looks to sell in the first place. If anything, the O’s might take the approach of a strategic sell-off, only unloading impending free agents while keeping an eye on ‘26, and the fit might simply not be there.