Last year’s Rizzo Award winner, Shōta Imanaga, returned and threw five scoreless innings. A Cubs bullpen coming off of one of their worst stretches of the year stopped the momentum on a dime and didn’t allow a run in this series. The bullpen came up huge in this series. They kept Tuesday’s game competitive and gave the team a chance for a comeback that came up short and then they closed out two wins to close the series. The pitching shows up and suddenly this team looks like a well oiled machine again.
Let’s take the high level look at things. The Cubs are in a stretch of 13 consecutive scheduled games. They did get a rain out early in the stretch. It was placed in one of the worst spots. They ended up with two out of three days off to start this stretch. They are 3-5 since the rainout and 4-5 otherwise. They are also in a stretch of 26 scheduled games in 27 days. Again, that one rain out in the stretch. The team was 37-22 before this started. They are now 48-33, an even .500 over this stretch. Three games remain, against the Astros and then an off day.
Totally for reference and not any confusion about relativity, the 2016 Cubs won 51 of their first 81 games. This team is just three games behind that team’s pace. One other reference point. Imanaga’s last game was a loss, and the team dropped to 21-14. That’s a 97 win pace. While he was out, the team was 26-19. That’s just shy of a 94 win pace. Despite the magnitude of that loss, this team held their own. Until the very end, they actually had increased their success. As it is, they are on pace for 96 wins.
Just for reference, it’s not perfect, but in the modern era the best teams tend to perform better in the second half than the first. Many more teams than ever before pick a lane and recognize when they are out of it. When teams are playing out the stretch, they tend to have less fight than a lot of teams did when us older timers were coming into our fandom.
For Cubs reference on that last point, in 2024 the team won 37 in the first half and 83 total. In 2023, it was 38 and 83. Even in 2022 it was 33 and 74. 2021 was the last time the Cubs won fewer games in the second half. Before that, 2018 was 46 and 95. In 2017 it was 40 and 92. In 2016, it was 51 and 103. Most of you will remember the 2015 team and 44 and 97. When this team has been at all good, it was better in the second half.
At this point, I expect this team to make a run at 100 wins and I don’t think I’m insane. If they don’t win 95, I’ll be disappointed and that’s why I’ve been unwavering in my belief in this team. Put together a competitive team and then improve it at the deadline. That’s the formula. I believe this organization will get it right and I believe this team will be there at the end.
A quick hit on the talking points from the struggles:
Poor Starting Pitching: Gone again. What a difference a strong start makes.
Poor Relief Pitching: Already covered above. The bullpen was excellent in this series.
Homer Happy Offense: Two of the three runs scored not on homers, including the straight out theft of a run with a Little League play. Three walks, only one extra base hit, no steals (technically), and a caught stealing. They didn’t do a lot extra, and it shows with only three runs.
Third Base Production: I didn’t see all of this one, but the reports I saw said the plate appearances looked good. One hit in four at bats. No strikeouts. Of course, this was a good matchup against a reverse split righty.
Dansby Swanson: In the fifth spot. One hit in four at bats, saw the play that more or less ended with PCA stealing home.
Pitch Counts:
Cubs: 151, 34 BF
Cardinals: 156, 37 BF
The Cubs made the Cardinals work nominally harder. Nothing striking. But I did see most of the first half of the game. Andre Pallante had to work very hard, throwing 94 pitches over five innings. That was a strong approach and really made Pallante work hard. He threw just under 19 pitches per inning. Anything over 20 is usually dominating. 15-20 is very effective.
Only Kyle Leahy had to throw a lot of pitches out of the Cardinals pen, but he did it over two innings. While Leahy has very strong numbers, he hadn’t worked in the series and had only thrown in two games over 11 days. So even if he isn’t available for the Cardinals Friday, not a major loss. The Cubs did not leave the Cardinals worse for wear, save the frustration of losing four days of the calendar and gaining no ground while at home.
The Cubs used four relievers, none of whom threw the day before. Only Daniel Palencia threw over 20 pitches. The Cubs probably have a full bullpen available Friday but you wouldn’t want to use Palencia aggressively. Two hits, two walks, a hit batter over four innings. This was a little less dominant that earlier games in the series, but the results were the same.
On to Houston and I think the team is positioned to get to two more wins and split this 12 game stretch.
Three Stars:
Shōta Imanaga. Five scoreless innings, one hit and one walk. Set the tone for this game. All of the way back as far as I could tell, a welcome sight.
Michael Busch. Two hits, one a homer.
Caleb Thielbar. Four batters, four outs. So quietly dominant.
Game 81, June 26: Cubs 3, Cardinals 0 (48-33)
Fangraphs
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
Superhero: Shōta Imanaga (.284). 5 IP, 17 BF, H, BB, 3 K (W 4-2)
Hero: Caleb Thielbar (.109). 1⅓ IP, 4 BF
Sidekick: Ian Happ (.108). 1-4, BB, RBI
THREE GOATS:
Billy Goat: Kyle Tucker (-.127). 0-4
Goat: Seiya Suzuki (-.063). 0-3, BB
Kid: Matt Shaw (-.059). 1-4
WPA Play of the Game: Michael Busch’s solo homer with two outs in the second. (.113)
*Cardinals Play of the Game: Willson Contreras was hit by a pitch with a runner on second and no outs in the ninth. (.085)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Poll
Who was the Cubs Player of the Game?
0%
PCA (H, R, stolen run)
(0 votes)
0%
Daniel Palencia (IP, 5 BF, H, HBP, 3 K, SV)
(0 votes)
0%
Someone else (leave your suggestion in the comments)
(0 votes)
0 votes total
Yesterday’s Winner: Matthew Boyd received 159 of 185 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
Kyle Tucker +28
PCA +15.5
Shōta Imanaga +14
Matthew Boyd +12
Jameson Taillon/Miguel Amaya +11
Matt Shaw -9.33
Julian Merryweather -15
Seiya Suzuki -16
Ben Brown -17
Dansby Swanson -24.33
Up Next: Houston also played Thursday, winning at home against the Phillies. This will be a matchup of teams with 48 wins. Cade Horton (3-1, 3.73, 41 IP) will make the eighth start of his young career. He was not helped by his defense last time out and the line looks a bit unsightly as a result. He’s been better home (3.38) than away (4.12). The eye test says he’s improved over his time in the big leagues. This is a big league challenge. He’s had many so far.
It seems like forever since the Cubs faced an unheralded pitcher. 28-year-old Brandon Walter (0-1, 3.80, 23⅔ IP) was a 26th round pick of the Red Sox in 2019. A late drafted, college pitcher who would also have had a weird 2020 interrupting his first full pro season. Walter exceeded expectations by reaching the majors, further exceeding them by making four starts this year. All things equal, he hasn’t pitched badly either. He’s been used somewhat sporadically, but has now started the last time through the rotation. In three June starts, he’s completed the sixth three times, recording two outs in the seventh the time before last. That was a start at home and his only other start. His first three were quite good but the Angels really roughed him up last time.
The Cubs continue to excel against right-handed starters and they would be well served winning this game. This is probably the most winnable matchup.