The Cubs have hung in there over their first 38 games, with a 22-16 record while playing only one team — the Pirates — that is currently under .500. (Yes, even the A’s, who the Cubs swept, are 20-18 and only two games out of first place in the AL West.)

They’ve got one more good team to face, the Mets this weekend, before the schedule eases up a bit.

For more on the Mets, here’s Chris McShane, managing editor of our SB Nation Mets site Amazin’ Avenue.

The Mets are off to a 24-14 start, leading the National League East, and — at the time of this writing — tied for the fourth-best record in baseball. For much of April, they were owners of the best record in the sport, but they’ve gone 5-5 over their past ten games to cool off just a bit.

This series will be an interesting one even from the perspective of a neutral observer. While the Mets’ offense has been solid despite its frustrating tendency to be inconsistent, the team’s pitching staff and defense have truly excelled. The Mets have given up just 3.21 runs per game, just a shade behind the Padres and their 3.17 runs allowed per game for the lowest rate in baseball. And as you surely already know, the Cubs’ offense leads baseball with 5.87 runs scored per game.

The Cubs will miss Kodai Senga, who leads Mets pitchers in ERA and pitched the series finale in Arizona, but the three pitchers they’ll see have all been very good so far this season. The starting pitcher experiment with Clay Holmes (2.95 ERA) has gone well thus far, and Tylor Megill (2.50 ERA) and Griffin Canning (2.50 ERA) are in the upper tier of starting pitchers by ERA this season. If there’s cause for concern on the pitching side of things, it’s that the Mets’ bullpen hasn’t been quite as effective over the past two weeks as it was to start the season. And A.J. Minter and Danny Young, the team’s best and second-best left-handed relievers, are out for the season with injuries that require surgery.

But what might impress me most about the Mets right now is that they’re sitting in this position with a very good record despite the fact that Juan Soto hasn’t really gotten going yet. The bar he’s set for himself is incredibly high, and a two-home run game in the series finale in Arizona brought him up to a 143 wRC+. When he inevitably goes on a tear, it’s going to be fun to watch, and the way Francisco Lindor and especially Pete Alonso are hitting this year, that trio should be one of the best in baseball atop the Mets’ lineup.

Fun facts

The Cubs are three wins shy of 400 against the Mets since the rivalry began in 1962. Their 397 wins are by far the Cubs’ most against any expansion team. They have won 337 vs. the Astros, who began play the same year as the Mets but moved to the American League after 2012. The Cubs have lost 375 games to the Mets and tied two, for a total of 774 games. The difference between the teams in runs scored? One, with Mets leading, 3,334 to 3,333.

At home, the Cubs are 212-179 vs. the Mets, compared to 185-196 on the road. They were 146-165-1 at Shea Stadium but are 28-23 at Citi Field, which opened in 2008. They are 26-17 there since 2011, including a four-game sweep in 2018 and three-game sweeps in 2015, 2019 and 2022. They were 1-2 in 2023 and 2-2 last year.

(Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)

Probable pitching matchups

Friday: Jameson Taillon, RHP (2-1, 3.86 ERA, 1.034 WHIP, 4.10 FIP) vs. Clay Holmes, RHP (4-1, 2.95 ERA, 1.282 WHIP, 2.19 FIP)

Saturday: Cade Horton, RHP (MLB debut) vs. Tylor Megill, RHP (3-2, 2.50 ERA, 1.167 WHIP, 2.81 FIP)

Sunday: Matthew Boyd, LHP (3-2, 2.75 ERA, 1.347 WHIP, 3.75 FIP) vs. Griffin Canning, RHP (1-1, 2.50 ERA, 1.389 WHIP, 3.37 FIP)

Times & TV channels

Friday: 6:10 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network, MLB Network (outside the Cubs and Mets market territories)

Saturday: 6:15 p.m. CT, Fox-TV (regional — coverage map)

Sunday: 11:05 a.m. CT, Roku (how to watch)

Prediction

The big news here, of course, is the MLB debut of the Cubs’ 2023 No. 1 pick, Cade Horton. He has dominated Triple-A batters but the Mets will certainly be a challenge.

Mets pitchers for this series have been very good. The Cubs also have good pitchers going this weekend. Of course, the minute I say it’ll be a low-scoring series, the bats will probably come out and demolish these pitchers.

Also, despite having a higher OPS vs. LHP (.839) than RHP (.761), the Cubs have a better record vs. RH starters (17-12) than LH starters (5-4), so maybe it’s good that they are facing three righthanders this weekend.

The Mets have been a streaky team this year. After starting 2-3, they went 19-6 to open up a 4½-game lead in the NL East. But since then, they’re 3-5. Perhaps the Cubs are catching them at the right moment.

I like saying the Cubs will win two of three, so that’s what I’m going to call for.

Up next

The Cubs return to Wrigley Field to begin a three-game series against the Marlins Monday evening.

Poll
How many games will the Cubs win against the Mets?