The Mariners extended their series winning streak to nine, their longest as a franchise since 2001, and are in the midst of their best start to a season since 2003. They’re two games behind the Tigers for the best record in the AL and FanGraphs thinks they have a two-in-three shot at winning the division and 83.3% odds of making the playoffs. Baseball Prospectus is shockingly more optimistic, putting their division odds at 71.7% and their overall playoff odds at 91.5%. Suffice to say, they’ve been one of the best teams in the majors through the first quarter of the season.
This six-game homestand should prove to be a little interesting and a gauge of their relative strength. Traditionally, when the Blue Jays and Yankees visit Seattle, the series have felt like away-at-home games. I’m honestly not sure what to expect from our Canadian neighbors for these first three games.
At a Glance
Blue Jays
Mariners
Blue Jays
Mariners
Game 1
Friday, May 9 | 6:40 pm
RHP Kevin Gausman
RHP Luis Castillo
45%
55%
Game 2
Saturday, May 10 | 6:40 pm
RHP Bowden Francis
RHP Logan Evans
46%
54%
Game 3
Sunday, May 11 | 1:10 pm
RHP José Ureña
RHP Bryce Miller
39%
61%
*Game odds courtesy of FanGraphs
Team Overview
Overview
Blue Jays
Mariners
Edge
Overview
Blue Jays
Mariners
Edge
Batting (wRC+)
94 (11th in AL)
124 (2nd in AL)
Mariners
Fielding (OAA)
3 (5th)
-5 (12th)
Blue Jays
Starting Pitching (FIP-)
120 (13th)
87 (2nd)
Mariners
Bullpen (FIP-)
93 (10th)
107 (12th)
Blue Jays
The Blue Jays had a really strong start to the season until they played the Mariners a few weeks ago. Including that series in Toronto, the Jays have gone 6-12 since these two ballclubs last met. That slide has dropped them from the top of the AL East back into the muddy middle of the standings. Nothing has really gone right for them either. There was some hope that bounce back seasons from Bo Bichette and George Springer would help power their offense, but the non-superstars in their lineup just haven’t carried their weight, leaving Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bichette, and Springer to carry the entire load. The pitching staff might be in a more dire position. They’re suffering from a critical lack of depth to cover for some key injuries in their starting rotation, and their healthy pitchers just aren’t pitching all that well either. Thanks to the softness of the AL standings, Toronto still has an opportunity to improve their position, but they need to turn their situation around pretty quickly.
Blue Jays Lineup
Player
Position
Bats
PA
K%
BB%
ISO
wRC+
Player
Position
Bats
PA
K%
BB%
ISO
wRC+
Bo Bichette
SS
R
171
16.4%
4.7%
0.088
94
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1B
R
162
19.1%
12.3%
0.137
133
Anthony Santander
DH
S
160
22.5%
10.0%
0.140
76
George Springer
RF
R
128
25.8%
16.4%
0.212
165
Daulton Varsho
CF
L
26
42.3%
11.5%
0.455
184
Alejandro Kirk
C
R
118
12.7%
3.4%
0.080
77
Addison Barger
3B
L
45
17.8%
6.7%
0.073
43
Nathan Lukes
LF
L
61
14.8%
11.5%
0.100
116
Andrés Giménez
2B
L
143
18.2%
7.0%
0.109
68
I mentioned some of the challenges the lineup has faced above, but it bears repeating: Since that last series against the M’s, just four Blue Jays batters have had a wRC+ above league average, Guerrero Jr, Springer, Nathan Lukes (in 11 games), and Daulton Varsho (in 7 games after being activated off the IL on April 29). Varsho’s return from his spring shoulder injury has been a particular boon as he’s solidified their outfield defense while also hitting well. The big problem has been the new guys, Anthony Santander and Andrés Giménez. Toronto was counting on both of them to provide a boost to the lineup, but they’ve been a pretty significant drag instead.
Probable Pitchers
Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
Game 1 Pitching Matchup
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Kevin Gausman
40
24.3%
7.9%
7.7%
32.0%
3.83
3.44
Luis Castillo
38 1/3
18.2%
9.7%
6.4%
47.5%
3.29
3.87
RHP Kevin Gausman
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
56.8%
94.4
106
99
61
0.329
Splitter
31.9%
86.7
95
93
110
0.248
Slider
11.2%
83.7
99
After two fantastic seasons to start his time in Toronto, Kevin Gausman’s performance took a turn for the worse last year. His average fastball velocity dipped by nearly a full mile per hour and his entire repertoire felt the negative knock-on effects. Opposing batters simply stopped chasing his splitter out of the zone because they could sit on his suddenly hittable fastball. The velocity on his heater has rebounded a bit this year, but his strikeout-to-walk ratio hasn’t really improved all that much. He’s generating a lot more weak contact rather than getting swings and misses but it really seems like age has caught up to him these past two years. Make no mistake, he’s still a very good pitcher, but maybe not a frontline ace like he was at his peak.
Game 2 Pitching Matchup
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Bowden Francis
35
16.8%
6.7%
22.9%
35.1%
5.66
6.78
Logan Evans
10
17.4%
10.9%
8.3%
37.5%
7.20
4.29
RHP Bowden Francis
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
56.7%
92.4
96
59
124
0.370
Splitter
24.0%
81.9
91
109
140
0.482
Curveball
14.4%
73.2
91
Slider
3.8%
81.9
From a previous series preview:
It took a while for Bowden Francis to find his breakthrough moment, but it finally happened over the final two months of the season last year. From August on, he was nearly unhittable, producing a 1.53 ERA while striking out 56 in 59 innings. He was never a highly regarded prospect and had only had experience as a long reliever in the big leagues up to that point. The key to unlocking that two-month hot streak was a new splitter that he picked up from his teammates during the offseason. As you’d expect, he seriously outperformed his peripherals during those nine starts, but the contact management the split provided him and the command of his repertoire give him a better outlook than he had when he started the season.
None of the gains Francis featured late last year have carried over into this season. He isn’t striking anyone out and batters are crushing the ball when they put his pitches in play. His best start of the season was his last outing against the Mariners, a six-inning, one-run affair where he struck out five.
Game 3 Pitching Matchup
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
José Ureña
7 1/3
14.3%
5.7%
20.0%
25.0%
8.59
7.86
Bryce Miller
34 2/3
21.5%
12.8%
5.1%
34.4%
4.15
3.73
Thanks to a few key injuries and no starting pitching depth whatsoever, the Blue Jays scraped José Ureña off the scrap heap after he was released by the Mets after one disastrous outing in New York (though he did earn a save in that three-inning appearance). Ureña might be familiar because he acted as a spot starter and long reliever for the Rangers last year, though he’s pitched for six different organizations over the last four years so Toronto shouldn’t get too comfortable with him.
The Big Picture:
AL West Standings
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Recent Form
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Recent Form
Mariners
22-14
0.611
—
W-L-L-W-W
Athletics
20-18
0.526
3.0
L-W-W-L-L
Astros
18-18
0.500
4.0
W-L-L-L-W
Rangers
18-20
0.474
5.0
L-W-W-L-L
Angels
15-21
0.417
7.0
W-L-W-W-L
After having a series stolen away from them by Seattle, the Athletics face a pretty tough slate of opponents over the next few weeks; they’re hosting the Yankees this weekend and then travel to face the Dodgers and Giants next week. The Astros lost their series in Milwaukee earlier this week and return home to face the Reds this weekend. And the Rangers’ fall down the standings continued with a series loss in Boston and now they’ll head to Detroit to face the best team in the AL over the weekend.