Hello and welcome to Pitcher List’s latest series: Using PLA to Evaluate Pitchers! Every week, I will examine various pitchers and break them down using PLA. There will be various themes and topics each week, which will range from topics such as waiver wire picks, to buy or sell, to awards races, to lefties/righties only, etc. I hope to mix it up as much as possible to keep you all on your toes.

Now, you might be asking, what is PLA?

PLA is an ERA estimator that was created in tandem with Pitch Level Value, which we refer to as PLV. PLV is essentially an all-encompassing stat that measures individual pitches and rates them on a 0-10 scale. The elements that factor into PLV include velocity, movement, release point, location, count, and handedness of the batter. We have an excellent primer on this by the one and only Nick Pollack that you can find right here! PLA takes this 0-10 score and translates it to an estimated ERA, which makes it easier to understand and more useful for those looking for help with their fantasy teams.

It’s important to note that PLA isn’t necessarily a catch-all estimator, just as xERA, FIP, SIERA, and pCRA aren’t either. These stats ultimately still measure outcomes, which are largely dependent on how a player is executing that day. ERA estimators are not crystal balls; however, they can provide some insight if taken with a grain of salt. For the purpose of this series, we are going to use PLA as the main factor to evaluate pitchers (hence the series title), but again, no stat is perfect, especially in the complex world of pitching.

Also, stay tuned for other PLV evaluation article series, such as one that will look at individual pitches and another that will use Process+ to evaluate hitters!

Today, we’re mixing it up and looking at relievers! I wanted to hold off on this for a while because it takes a set threshold of pitches for PLA to stabilize; however, as we are around the halfway point in the season, we now are getting a better sense of how players are doing.

Today’s pitchers are the top 5 closers for this season, per Rick Graham’s incredible top 40 closers list. Check this list out weekly, as it’s the best insight online into the world of fantasy baseball relievers.

 

Josh Hader – 2.99 PLA

 

While he’s had some pretty ugly blowups along the way, it’s pretty impressive to see that Josh Hader has been an elite closer for so long.

Last year was a bit messy, as after signing his huge deal with the Astros, he put up good numbers but not those that you’d expect out of one of the highest-paid closers in the game. This year, however, is a different story, as he is slicing and dicing through lineups like it’s nobody’s business.

Hader’s stuff is pretty simple. He throws an elite, top-of-the-line two-seamer that comes in at a flat attack angle at the top of the zone. It also comes with elite vertical movement and a solid velocity/extension profile, which leads to PLV grading it out better than almost every other fastball in the game. He pairs this with a slider, which has a nearly 29% whiff rate. PLV is notably lower on this pitch, despite its effectiveness, which you have to assume is partially due to the erratic nature of the pitch at times. Lastly, Hader has a changeup, which he deploys to righties occasionally, and PLV does not like this pitch at all. Luckily, he rarely uses it, so we don’t see it getting destroyed like some other poorly graded pitches.

Hader has been the best closer in baseball this year, and PLA agrees, especially when you consider the fact that the stat has not been as kind to some of the other top closers with similar results.

 

Edwin Diaz – 4.04 PLA

 

Everything looks normal in Edwin Diaz’s ERA estimator charts… Except for the PLA.

Diaz has been dominant again this year, looking like the guy who got the largest reliever contract ever a few offseasons ago. This is a great sight for Mets fans, as they need every player all in if they want to succeed in bringing home the division and the World Series this year.

Diaz has only thrown two pitch types this year, the four-seamer and the slider. It’s the standard combination for top-tier relievers, which Diaz certainly has proven himself to be. Both of these pitches ultimately grade out around average, though, with the four-seamer being the better of the two. Diaz’s four-seamer excels in three major categories: velocity, extension and HAVAA. His fastball comes in at a flat angle, which, when at the top of the zone, is near impossible to hit. The slider has gotten plenty of swings and misses over the years, but PLV grades it out slightly below average.

The issue for Diaz is location. Like plenty of relievers, his stuff is great, but he doesn’t locate it with pinpoint precision, or sometimes even with any precision at all. Again, though, plenty of relievers rely on stuff way more than command, which inflates their PLAs, which you will see with some of the other pitchers on this list as well.

 

Andrés Muñoz – 4.48 PLA

 

Forget what I said about Josh Hader at the end there, it’s Andrés Muñoz who has been the best reliever this year, per almost all the stats except PLA.

Why is this? Well, while the Mariners’ closer is awesome, he does have some of the same issues that the previous two pitchers we talked about have. The first is his slider command. The pitch is incredible, as he uses it almost half the time and gets tons of whiffs with it, but he is incredibly susceptible to non-competitive pitches. This is a trend with relievers in general, though, as despite often having lower FIP/xFIP/SIERA numbers than starters, their PLAs are inflated again due to the lower percentage of quality pitches.

Munoz’s four-seamer is a great pitch, as it has even better velocity than Diaz and the flat attack angle of that fastball as well. The sinker is also a solid weapon, though PLV rates it as below average. Similarly to Hader, Munoz has a changeup he occasionally brings out, but it doesn’t grade out well per PLV; in fact, it grades out incredibly poorly.

There’s little doubt that Munoz has proven himself to be one of the best arms in the game, with his incredible stuff that generates tons of swings and misses. By PLA, though, he grades out as more of an average pitcher, though it’s hard to buy into that fully.