The Cubs poured it on and put away the Astros Saturday night in Houston.
The Cubs scored right out of the gate, had a huge inning in the middle and then kept adding on late. The Cubs had one nice win in St. Louis earlier on this trip. This comes after a double digit game last weekend against the Mariners. So there haven’t been a ton of wins lately, but when they have won, they have showed signs of life. Even in some of the recent losses, there have been signs of the offense getting back into the groove.
Those signs of life are surely not even a little bit coincidental with the re-emergence of Kyle Tucker. I see a lot of gnashing of teeth about the Kyle Tucker trade. This reminds me a little of the José Quintana trade. Elite pieces take significant players in return. Tucker isn’t on a bloated contract, so it took a lot to get him.
Even some people who I think are brilliant and may even have some contacts within the organization have expressed frustration about not knowing what they were giving up in Cam Smith. It wasn’t long ago that I outlined what the Cubs have done with first round picks. If you don’t think they knew what they had in Smith, I’m not sure what you think they are doing. I’m sure the Astros insisted on him. I imagine there is a slight amount of surprise that Smith is doing what he’s doing this fast. Bear in mind, he’s in an offense-friendly park. But yeah, he’s doing great.
The only thing in the long run that makes that look terrible is if this organization doesn’t figure out a way to get Tucker extended. Unless the team somehow wins a World Series, that is. That suggests all in at the deadline. Doing everything to convince Tucker that in addition to the on field money, there are off field opportunities and that this is the kind of organization that can win over and over again.
Let’s keep looking at the keys we’ve been monitoring.
Starting Pitching: Good. Colin Rea allowed two runs over five. Five hits, no walks and a hit by pitch. Not the length you want, but it was a nice bounce back against a tough team in a tough park.
Relief Pitching: Good. One run over four is good performance. The Porter Hodge homer allowed in a low leverage situation isn’t ideal, but you do ask guys to pound the strike zone in that spot.
Homer Over-reliance: Four homers, seven runs driven in. Yeah, this was a whole lot about homers. They did rap out 15 hits and drew four walks. They had a pair of doubles and a triple. They stole three bases without being caught. This is a tricky one, because they did a ton of things that lead to runs. But then they’d hit a homer. This was a fantastic offensive effort.
Third Base Production. One hit, one walk in five plate appearances. A run and a stolen base. He struck out twice.
Dansby Swanson: Batted fifth. Two singles and a double. Drew a walk. One run driven in. He had a walk with two in scoring position in the first. An RBI-single late with a runner in scoring position. One for two with the bases empty.
Crushing Righty Starters: Seven hits, four walks, three homers and eight runs against starter Lance McCullers Jr. They are 38-22 versus righties. That’s a 102-win pace. Every team that legitimately thinks they are heading to the National League playoffs is going to look to add a lefty pitcher in some role.
Pitch Counts:
Cubs: 135, 33 BF
Astros: 160, 46 BF
Just a massive performance out of the Cubs offense. I told you in the preview that McCullers had gotten crushed at home this year and this one was no exception. Ryan Gusto went out and threw 65 pitches to save the rest of the Astros bullpen. Because of the heroic efforts of Gusto to cover the grenade, he’ll likely be off for days, but the rest of the Astro bullpen is surely available Sunday.
On the Cubs side, four relievers worked an inning each and none threw 20 pitches. After Chris Flexen did all of the work in relief Friday, the only pitcher maybe not available Sunday is Flexen. Even there, it’s not impossible that Flexen could come back on one day after Friday’s performance. One would expect not, but you never know.
Both teams should have a lot of weapons with which to duel on Sunday. The gauntlet comes to the end. The Cubs are now off the next two Mondays and then four days the following week for the All-Star break. Even after the break, they come out with six straight and then one off. Then six on and one off again. It keeps going. The next time the team plays more than six straight is August 12-21.
Earlier in the season when the games were more sporadic, Craig Counsell went after them more aggressively. Watch them get right back into that mode.
Three Stars:
This was the offense’s night. Kyle Tucker had four hits, one a double, one a homer, drove in three, scored four and stole a base. Have I ever mentioned the man can really fill a scorecard? Last 34 games: .341 BA, .434 OBP, 1.012 OPS. Beast mode. That’s a long time to play at an MVP level.
Dansby Swanson: Two singles, a double and a walk. Drove in a run.
Michael Busch: Single, homer, walk. Three runs batted in and a run scored.
Game 83, June 28: Cubs 12, Astros 3 (49-34)
Fangraphs
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
Superhero: Michael Busch (.226). 2-4, HR, BB, 3 RBI, R
Hero: Kyle Tucker (.156). 4-5, HR, 2B, 3 RBI, 4 R, SB
Sidekick: Ian Happ (.089). 1-6, RBI, R
THREE GOATS:
Billy Goat: Colin Rea (-.066). 5 IP, 20 BF, 5 H, 0 BB, 2 ER, 2 K, HBP (W 5-3)
Goat: Seiya Suzuki (-.024). 2-5, HR, 3B, 2 RBI, 2 R
Kid: Dansby Swanson (-.002). 3-4, 2B, BB, RBI
*In a lopsided game, the early plate appearances have outsized value. Happ (ground out -.022, ground out, -.010, RBI-single with two on and one out ,125). Suzuki (ground out with a runner on second and one out, -.030, popped out with one out, -.015, Triple bases empty, up five, .019). Swanson (walk with second and third and two outs, .014, ground out leading off, -.029, singled up six, .002).
WPA Play of the Game: Cam Smith homered with a runner on second and two outs in the third. Turned a one-run deficit to a one-run lead. (.231)
Cubs Play of the Game: Nico Hoerner’s solo homer in the fourth that gave the Cubs a 3-2 lead. (.135)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Poll
Who was the Cubs Player of the Game?
This poll is closed
2%
Someone else (leave your suggestion in the comments)
(4 votes)
174 votes total
Yesterday’s Winner: Chris Flexen received 98 of 162 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
Kyle Tucker +30
PCA +14.5
Shōta Imanaga +14
Matthew Boyd +12
Jameson Taillon/Miguel Amaya +11
Jon Berti -9
Julian Merryweather -15
Ben Brown -17
Seiya Suzuki -18
Dansby Swanson -22.33
Up Next: The third and final game of the weekend and season series between these two teams Sunday afternoon. Jameson Taillon (7-5, 4.47, 90⅔ IP) starts for the Cubs. After five straight winning starts, the Brewers and Cardinals beat up on him in his last two starts. He needs to bounce back. He beat Houston in a start last April, allowing two runs, one earned in 5⅔ innings. He wasn’t great, but was effective and won. Jameson is worse on the road (5.56) but better in day games (3.12).
31-year-old lefty Framber Valdez (8-4, 2.88, 103 IP) starts for the Astros. Originally signed as an international free agent out of the Domincan Republic, he’s been pitching for the Astros since 2018. He’s been a workhorse since 2022 when he first topped 30 starts and 200 innings. He’s 6-0 with a 2.11 ERA over his last seven starts. The one non-win was last time against the Phillies when he threw seven scoreless innings on four hits and four walks. He did not start against the Cubs last year. He’s been better at home (2.04).
This is a pretty rough matchup. Jamo needs a real big start.