With the enlargement of the bases and recent rule changes limiting the times a pitcher can throw to first base, the stolen base is making a comeback in baseball after metrics took base-stealing out of vogue. In 2022, there were a total of 2,486 stolen bases in Major League Baseball. After the rule changes, that number ballooned to 3,617 in 2024, an almost 50-percent increase.
The Dodgers, who trend at the top of baseball in both hitting and pitching statistics every year, have not particularly emphasized the stolen base as a strategy. In 2023, the Dodgers ranked 19th in baseball in stolen bases, in 2024, tenth, and so far this year, they are 23rd. However, as an apparent response to these rule changes, the Dodgers have renewed their emphasis on speed in the players they are bringing into their system, while also allowing them to run wild on the bases in the minor leagues.
When analyzing the speed freaks in the Dodgers’ system, a few key points need to be considered. Total stolen bases need to be kept in context in relation to total attempts. A player who steals 40 bases in 60 attempts should be ranked lower as a stolen base threat than someone who steals 30 bases in 36 attempts. Additionally, stolen bases in the lower minor leagues are less predictive than stolen bases in the upper minor or major leagues. The lower the minor league level, the less skilled the pitchers and catchers are at preventing stolen bases.
That said, let’s look at the numbers of the players that have stolen 20 bases or more in the Dodgers system this season, ranked by success rate:
Hyeseong Kim: 21 steals, 0 caught stealing, 100-percent success rate (MLB & Triple-A)
Jaron Elkins: 43 stolen bases, 4 caught stealing, 91.5 percent (Low-A)
Esteury Ruiz: 39 stolen bases, 6 caught stealing, 86.7 percent (Triple-A)
Josue De Paula: 25 stolen bases, 4 caught stealing, 86.2 percent (High-A)
Jose Meza: 22 stolen bases, 4 caught stealing, 84.6 percent (Low-A)
Kole Myers: 20 stolen bases, 4 caught stealing, 83.3 percent (High-A, Double-A)
Elijah Hainline: 22 stolen bases, 5 caught stealing, 81.5 percent (Low-A, Triple-A)
Kendall George: 34 stolen bases, 9 caught stealing, 79.1 percent (High-A)
Taylor Young: 20 stolen bases, 6 caught stealing, 76.9 percent (Double-A)
Eduardo Quintero: 33 stolen bases, 11 caught stealing, 75 percent (Low-A)
For context, Tommy Edman is presently ranked seventh in the live-ball era in stolen base percentage at 86.5 percent (with an 80-steal minimum). Byron Buxton is the all-time leader in stolen base percentage at 90 percent. Those numbers are almost entirely under the old rules. With the new rules, the major league stolen base success rate increased from 75.4 percent in 2022 to 76.7 percent this season.
Based on this year’s performance (and recognizing half a season is a small sample size), four of these players have elite success rates. The 26-year-old Esteury Ruiz should be no surprise. He has already led the American League in stolen bases, with 67 in 2023 (83.7-percent success rate). Kim, who hasn’t been caught yet in 21 attempts, came to the team with the reputation of an elite baserunner. Jaron Elkins has been a stolen base machine down in Rancho Cucamonga, and leads the organization in total steals while only being caught four times. Josue De Paula, who is not a speedster but seems to have good natural baseball instincts, has had a very impressive 86.2-percent success rate on 29 attempts.
There are two highly rated minor league prospects who have reputations as speedsters, but have not had success in the stolen base department this year. Mike Sirota, given a 60 scouting score for run (MLB Pipeline), has been caught five times in nine attempts, and Zyhir Hope, given a 55 scouting score for run, has been caught six times in 17 attempts.