The Detroit Tigers (55-34) and the Cleveland Guardians (40-46) play the middle contest of a 3-game series at Progressive Field Saturday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Tigers vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Guardians lead 3-2

The Tigers edged the Guardians 2-1 in the series opener Friday in a well-pitched ball game. 3B Jose Ramirez got the home team on the board with a solo homer in the first inning and finished 2-for-4 with a run and an RBI. However, Tigers OF Wenceel Perez leveled the game 1-1 with a solo homer in the top of the third, followed by a solo homer by IF Zach McKinstry in the top of the fourth. That accounted for all of the scoring in the game.

Detroit snapped a modest 2-game losing streak and is now 4-2 over its last 6 games, including a 3-2 mark in its past 5 on the road. The Under ended a 3-game run to the Over, too.

Cleveland’s offensive struggles continue, with the club scoring 2 runs or fewer in 6 of its last 8 games — a stretch in which the Under has hit 6 times. The Guardians have also been shut out 4 times since June 26.

Tigers at Guardians projected starters

RHP Casey Mize vs. LHP Logan Allen

Mize (8-2, 2.86 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 through 78 2/3 innings.

Last start: Win, 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER (1 HR), 1 BB, 5 K in 10-5 home victory vs. Minnesota Twins last Saturday (June 28)2025 road stats: 3-2, 3.59 ERA (42 2/3 IP, 17 ER), 1.38 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 7 HR in 8 starts2025 vs. Guardians: 1 home start (May 24), no-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER (2 R), 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 7-5 setback in 10 inningsCareer vs. Guardians: 0-1, 4.15 ERA (8 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 1.39 WHIP, 8 H, 4 BB, 7 K in 2 starts

Allen (5-6, 4.27 ERA) makes his 16th start (17th appearance). He has a 1.49 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 through 78 innings.

Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H (1 HR), 2 BB, 6 K in 7-0 home defeat vs. St. Louis Cardinals last Sunday2025 home stats: 3-4, 4.31 ERA (39 2/3 IP, 19 ER), 1.36 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, 5 HR in 7 starts (8 appearances)2025 vs. Tigers: 1 road start (May 25), loss, 3 2/3 IP, 4 ER (5 R), 6 H, 1 HR, 4 BB, 2 K in 5-0 setbackCareer vs. Tigers: 0-2, 9.75 ERA (12 IP, 13 ER), 2.08 WHIP, 17 H, 8 BB, 9 K in 3 starts

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Tigers at Guardians odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:38 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Tigers -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Guardians +115 (bet $100 to win $115)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Tigers -1.5 (+120) | Guardians +1.5 (-145)Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)Tigers at Guardians picks and predictionsPrediction

Tigers 6, Guardians 2

The TIGERS (-135) are a strong play on the road against the skidding Guardians, and the pitching scales are heavily tipped in Detroit’s favor.

Mize has been a very good, All-Star caliber pitcher this season, while Allen has been mediocre. The southpaw has really struggled against the Tigers in his brief encounters, too. In addition, Cleveland’s offense hasn’t been able to pull out of a nosedive, scoring 2 or fewer runs in 6 of the past 8 games.

TIGERS -1.5 (+120) is a very good play in this middle game. The Guardians just haven’t been able to cobble much offense together lately, and that’s not expected to change against Mize. On the flip side, Detroit should get much less resistance from the left-hander Allen, who has never been able to get a decent footing when facing the Tigers in 3 career outings.

UNDER 8 (-105) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play and take it easy.

The Tigers should be able to generate a bit more offense than they did in the opener, but the Guardians have cashed low in 13 of their last 17 games and have scored 2 runs or fewer in 6 of their past 8 — including 4 shutout losses. It’s hard to trust the Over in games involving Cleveland right now, so go low.

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