Amid yearlong slump, the Rangers’ struggles with runners in scoring position stand out

SAN DIEGO — The impotence and ineffectiveness of the Texas Rangers lineup has been discussed and diagnosed ad nauseum. The list of issues is by no means small. The solution — or solutions — is certainly not limited to one singular aspect.

That doesn’t disqualify the following question.

Has the team’s inability to capitalize with runners in scoring position been the single largest individual detractor of offensive success this season?

“Well, yeah,” Rangers manager Bruce Bochy said. “Any team that’s not winning games probably can look at that.”

Rangers

The Rangers, who’ve been one of baseball’s worst in situations with runners at second and third base this season, have undoubtedly looked at it enough. The struggles shined uncomfortably bright during a nine-game stretch that preceded Saturday’s matchup against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park in which the Rangers have lost four of the five extra inning games that they’ve played.

Second baseman Marcus Semien, shortstop Corey Seager and right fielder Adolis García hit a combined 4 for 14 in extra innings — in which the frame begins with a runner on second base — since a June 24 win against the Baltimore Orioles in extra innings.

The rest of the lineup has hit a combined 0 for 24 in that same span. The Rangers were 0 for 3 in the 10th inning of Friday’s 3-2 loss and failed to move ghost runner Josh Smith to third base.

“It’s kind of been the story of this year so far,” super utility man Josh Smith said. “Can’t get that guy in.”

The Rangers’ .645 OPS with runners in scoring position this season is the third-worst in baseball, ahead of only the Kansas City Royals and the Chicago White Sox, as is their weighted runs created metric (70) and weighted on base average (.279). Their .542 OPS in high-leverage situations, according to FanGraphs, is also the third-worst mark in baseball.

Only four hitters — Semien (.874), outfielder Sam Haggerty (.778), outfielder Evan Carter (.747) and outfielder Wyatt Langford (.744) — are better than league average with runners at second and third base.

“You don’t want to overcomplicate it,” Haggerty said of the desired mindset at the plate with a runner at second or third base. “You don’t want to make it more than it needs to be.”

Fair, but, it’s not an insignificant deal. Six of last year’s postseason eligible teams ranked within the top 10 leaguewide in OPS with runners in scoring position and only two teams outside the top 15 qualified for the playoffs. The New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers, whom met in the World Series, ranked fourth and sixth respectively.

The Rangers ranked seventh two years ago when they won a championship. Even last year’s team — which took a significant step back offensively on the whole from the season prior — still had the eighth-best OPS with runners in scoring position.

What’s changed this year?

“The biggest difference I’ve seen is the strikeouts and expanding,” Bochy said. “We didn’t do that as much last year. Now, sure, credit goes to these arms we’re seeing, you’ve got to look at who we’re facing. But, still, we did a better job of putting the ball in play. That’s gotten away from us.”

The Rangers’ 23.7% strikeout rate with runners in scoring position is the fifth-highest in baseball and a tick greater than their 22% strikeout rate in all offensive scenarios.

The root of the problem lies in the team’s inability to lay off pitches outside of the strike zone. They’ve swung at 32.7% of pitches outside of the strike zone with runners in scoring position, which, coincidentally, is the exact same percentage as their overall chase rate in any scenario.

That’s an issue, and it exemplifies the team’s incapacity to make the proper adjustments at the plate. Last season, for example, the Rangers swung at 31.4% of pitches outside of the strike zone in all situations. But, with runners in scoring position, their chase rate dropped by several percentage points to 29.1%. That would rank second-best in baseball regardless of the situation this season.

“It could be confidence, it could be a flaw in the mechanics,” Bochy said. “It could be trying to drive the ball too much. We’ve got to get back to meet the ball, play pepper, whatever you want to say. That’s kind of where we’re trying to get back to.”

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