Every time your bullpen falters late and costs you a game, it is unfortunate. This one feels a little more unfortunate. Obviously, you hate to ever yield the Cardinals even an inch. But more so, this weekend has been Michael Busch’s explosion weekend. Four homers in two days. Seven hits. Six runs driven in. Four runs scored. There are some really great players who never do that over two consecutive games in their career. A couple of homers against lefties. What a weekend for the Cubs first baseman.
A 5-3 lead wasn’t any kind of gimme. But it was easy to feel that with that lead heading to the eighth and then turning the ball over to Brad Keller to be followed by Daniel Palencia, you are in really good shape. But it just wasn’t to be. Keller allowed two runs in a March outing, five runs (four earned) in an April appearance, nothing in May, one run in June. and this outing today. I was amused to read on social media that Keller has been struggling. I realize he allowed two runners on July 2, one on July 1, one on June 29. But holy cow, 28 outings since April 22 when he had his other nightmare outing. Over those 28 innings, three runs, two earned. 30⅓ innings, two earned runs. If he was a guy you were worried about, quit your fandom.
I hate to be that way, but the guy has been absolute nails. It’s been hard to pick one guy out of the group of relievers as a key guy. But I certainly wouldn’t have said you were wrong if he was your guy. It happens. Tomorrow’s going to come and when Keller’s tomorrow comes, I’m going to assume he’ll be lights out again.
Key Storylines:
Starting Pitching: Using this for Chris Flexen who was the “bulk” guy in this one and may, at least temporarily, slide into the rotation. Chris recorded 11 outs out of 15 batters faced. Four hits, one run, two strikeouts. The one run was a solo homer. Good outing. Gave the Cubs a chance to win.
Relief Pitching: Hat tip to the Cardinals, they scored off of Drew Pomeranz, who hadn’t allowed an earned run this year, Flexen (who still has an ERA under 1.00) and Keller, who was under 2.00. Three of the most effective relievers in baseball this year all allowed runs. It is at least a little wild to me that as good as this team is, when they do allow bullpen runs they generally lose.
Homer Over Reliance: Two homers, both solo shots. Six runs scored. Nine total hits, three doubles. They drew six walks. Stole two bases. Just the kind of game that scores a bunch of runs and six isn’t bad. Some manufacturing was done.
Third Base Production: No hits in three plate appearances. But one steal.
Dansby Swanson: Batted fifth. One hit in five at bats. Strikeout with bases loaded and two outs. Single bases empty. Ground out bases empty. Strikeout leading off inning. Fly out leading off inning. Can’t pin it on one guy, but strikeout with the bases loaded and one out is crippling.
Opposing Starter: Lefty. They managed four hits, four walks and two runs off of him. PCA walk and Busch homer and double off the lefty are enormous moments. Steven Matz is lefty. One hit and two walks among eight batters. JoJo Romero is lefty. One hit and one unearned run in five batters. Seiya Suzuki with the key hit, nothing new there. It’ll get lost in the mist, but there are some good things here.
Pitch Counts:
Cardinals: 171, 43 BF
Cubs: 168, 40 BF
The offenses won the day. Both teams made the other team’s pitching staff work very hard. 171 is right at 19 pitches per inning. 168 is an eyelash under. So on both sides, the teams made each other work really hard to get through innings.
For the Cardinals, Matz threw 31 pitches. He’s the only Cardinal that feels unlikely to be available Sunday. The rest of these guys didn’t throw in a blowout the day before and were under 20 pitches. For the Cubs, even if they wanted him, Flexen would be unavailable. Pomeranz threw 25. He probably could, but it seems unlikely we’ll see him. But Jordan Wicks almost certainly has to be available. Keller is almost definitely unavailable. So I think just six relievers available for the Cubs and at least seven for the Cardinals.
Three Stars:
Busch is the offensive star. Homer, double, single, two runs, RBI.
Flexen, one out shy of four innings, one run allowed. Kept the Cubs in the game long enough for the offense to get going.
Carson Kelly. Homer, double, two runs, RBI.
Game 89, July 5: Cardinals 8, Cubs 6 (53-36)
Fangraphs
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
Superhero: Michael Busch (.413). 3-5, HR, 2B, RBI, 2R
*10th best WPA game score of the year by a Cub.
Hero: Nico Hoerner (.202). 1-3, BB, RBI, R
Sidekick: Ryan Pressly (.094). IP, 3 BF, H, K
THREE GOATS:
Billy Goat: Brad Keller (-.794). IP, 8 BF, 5 H, 0 BB, 5 ER, K (L 3-1)
*2nd worst WPA game score of the year by a Cub.
Goat: Matt Shaw (-.191). 0-3, SB
Kid: Dansby Swanson (-.142). 1-5
WPA Player of the Game: Nolan Gorman batted with runners on first and second and one out, the Cardinals down one. He singled. A run scored and tied the game. (.309)
*Cubs Play of the Game: Nico Hoerner batted with runners on second and third in the sixth, the Cubs down one. He singled and tied the game. (.123)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Poll
Who was the Cubs Player of the Game?
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Someone else (leave your suggestion in the comments)
(0 votes)
0 votes total
Yesterday’s Winner: Michael Busch received 227 out of 292 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
Kyle Tucker +26
Matthew Boyd +15
PCA 14.5
Shōta Imanaga +13
Jameson Taillon/Miguel Amaya +11
Matt Shaw -10.33
Julian Merryweather -15
Ben Brown -17
Seiya Suzuki -19
Dansby Swanson -25.33
Up Next: The third and final game of this series Sunday evening on ESPN (a reminder of the unusual 5:10 p.m. CT start time). Matthew Boyd (8-3, 2.65, 98⅔ IP) has been the most effective of the starters and he’ll look to keep that going. He’s won his last two starts, including a very good one against Cleveland and a dominant one against the Cardinals in St. Louis. He’s 4-1 with a 1.66 over his last seven. The most innings he’s thrown since 2019 and he’s getting better. Hats off. He’s 7-0 at Wrigley, accounting for all of his wins except that one in St. Louis. But he’s been good everywhere and in pretty much every situation.
Erick Fedde (3-8, 4.56, 92⅔ IP). Those numbers aren’t bad. He’s 0-5 with a 5.86 ERA over his last seven. Among those is two starts ago when the Cubs scored seven runs off him in 3⅔ innings. He followed that up allowing seven runs in five at Pittsburgh. He’s been better on the road (3.86) than home (5.65). But also better during the day (3.93) than at night (5.40).
One bad inning happens. You don’t get to erase it. No excuses. Also, save for that one inning, the Cubs have dominated these first two games. Without the eighth inning, the Cubs win 5-3 on the back of an 11-3 win. This has all of the looks of two teams moving in different directions. But also, that one inning happened. Let’s take the momentum back, win the series and leave the Cardinals battered on their way out.