Bryan Armetta offers up a preview, prediction and pick for Wednesday’s game between the Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees.
The slumping Yankees broke out in a big way on Tuesday, earning a dominant 10-3 victory. It was a letdown performance for the Mariners, who saw their ace Logan Gilbert get lit up in the Bronx. Still, Seattle is firmly in playoff contention at 48-43; this group is capable of bouncing back. Can Cal Raleigh and company do damage tonight against Aaron Judge and New York? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Wednesday’s battle between the Mariners and Yankees.
The Yankees are favorites (-156) over the Mariners, with the over/under set at 9.5 runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s matchup.
Mariners vs. Yankees prediction, preview
While these two lineups aren’t lacking in star power, the same can’t be said for tonight’s pitchers. Taking the hill for Seattle is Logan Evans, making just his ninth start of the season. The rookie has impressed so far, notching a 2.96 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over 45.2 innings of work. However, a 4.62 FIP suggests that the righty is due for some negative regression. In addition, Evans has a 3.68 ERA away from the pitcher-friendly confines of T-Mobile Park. Wednesday’s game at Yankee Stadium offers a dramatically different run-scoring environment.
Facing Judge and this New York lineup is no easy task. Granted, the Pinstripes have dropped seven of their last ten contests. Those losses were due more to lackluster pitching than hitting; the team scored 6.2 runs per game during that stretch. Besides power, where this group excels is at working the count. Yankees batters are averaging a league-best 3.96 walks per game. Granted, much of that has to do with #99. The two-time MVP is so intimidating, to the point where managers are willing to put him on base regardless of the situation. It’ll be up to the team’s other stars, such as Jazz Chisholm, Cody Bellinger, and Giancarlo Stanton, to come through. Fortunately for New York, those three batters went a combined 6-for-11 yesterday. Evans, not much of a strikeout artist, will need to control the zone on Wednesday.
Still, it’s not as though the Yankees are sending out an ace tonight. Making his first career start will be Cam Schlittler, called up from Triple-A Scranton this morning. The right-hander, ranked as New York’s #10 prospect per MLB.com, received this promotion as a result of Clarke Schmidt’s Tommy John surgery. Still, this organization has had success with homegrown arms in recent years. Schlittler’s minor league numbers are nothing to sneeze at, either. Through 76.2 innings at Double-A and Triple-A, the 24-year-old has recorded a 2.82 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 99 strikeouts.
The Mariners may be perceived as a pitching-first squad, but they can rake as well. When playing on the road, Seattle is averaging the league’s seventh-most runs per game (4.98). It all starts with Raleigh, baseball’s home run leader (36). The catcher has a real claim as the second-best slugger on Earth, putting up a whopping 1.029 OPS. Other standouts include Randy Arozarena (130 wRC+) and JP Crawford (128 wRC+). Still, it’s worth noting that the M’s are only 18th in batting average against right-handed pitchers (.247). They’ll need to improve on that tonight to take down the Bronx Bombers.
Mariners vs. Yankees pick, best bet
Neither of these inexperienced arms deserve much faith from bettors. However, Schlittler’s swing-and-miss stuff (11.6 K/9) might play better than Evans’ more contact-oriented approach. The Yankees, while flawed, are better than what they’ve shown for most of July. Securing a series win tonight would ease plenty of concerns for New York.