The New York Mets (53-39) visit the Baltimore Orioles (40-50) Thursday for a doubleheader — the second and third games of a 3-game series. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards for Thursday’s Game 1 is set for 12:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Mets vs. Orioles odds for the opener and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 1-0

Wednesday’s game was postponed due to rain, setting up Thursday’s split-admission doubleheader.

The Mets opened the series with a 7-6 win in 10 innings Tuesday, cashing as -117 favorites with the Over (10) coming through. New York scored 4 runs in the top of the eighth to tie it — thanks to 2-run homers by SS Francisco Lindor (1-for-4, 2 runs, 2 RBIs) and 1B Pete Alonso (2-for-4, 1 run, 2 RBIs). RF Juan Soto (3-for-5, 1 run, 1 RBI) knocked in the winning run with an RBI single in the top of the 10th. The victory was the Mets’ fifth in their last six games, but they’re just 5-5 over the last 10 contests.

The Orioles had a 3-game win streak snapped with Tuesday’s loss. 2B Jackson Holliday (2-for-4, 2 runs), 1B Ryan O’Hearn (1-for-4, 1 run) and RF Ramon Laureano (1-for-4) each finished with 2 RBIs. Baltimore recently completed an impressive 3-game road sweep of the Atlanta Braves last weekend. The Orioles are 5-3 in their last 8 games.

Mets at Orioles projected starters

LHP David Peterson vs. RHP Charlie Morton

Peterson (6-4, 3.18 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 through 102 innings.

Last start: Win, 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER (2 R), 5 H, 3 BB, 4 K in 3-2 win vs. Milwaukee Brewers Thursday2025 away splits: 1-4, 4.44 ERA (46 2/3 IP, 23 ER), 1.41 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 in 8 startsCareer vs. Orioles: 1-1, 3.24 ERA (16 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.44 WHIP, 17 H, 7 BB, 14 K in 4 games (3 starts), last facing them in 20242024 vs. Orioles: 1 home start (Aug. 19), no-decision, 7 IP, 2 ER (3 R), 6 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 4-3 walk-off win in 9th

Morton (5-7, 5.47 ERA) makes his 14th start (20th appearance). He has a 1.55 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 through 77 1/3 innings.

Last start: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 3-2 victory at Braves Friday2025 home splits: 3-3, 5.12 ERA (45 2/3 IP, 26 ER), 1.47 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 in 11 games (7 starts)Career vs. Mets: 7-7, 3.85 ERA (133 1/3 IP, 57 ER), 1.28 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 in 25 games (24 starts), last facing them in 20242024 vs. Mets: 1-1, 5.87 ERA (15 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.37 WHIP, 14 H, 7 BB, 13 K in 3 starts

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Mets at Orioles odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:44 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Mets -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Orioles +115 (bet $100 to win $115)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (-125) | Orioles +1.5 (+150)Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)Mets at Orioles picks and predictionsPrediction

Mets 6, Orioles 4

BET METS (-140).

The Orioles are the sixth-worst team in the majors at home, posting a 19-23 record. Baltimore is 3-8 in Morton’s 11 home appearances this season as well. It is just 2-4 in its last 6 home games.

The Mets will have one of their aces on the mound in Peterson, giving them a strong advantage. They are surging offensively as well, scoring 29 runs over their previous 4 performances.

Considering the trends, BACK METS (-140).

PASS.

Three of the Mets’ last 5 games resulted in one-run margins. Laying 1½ runs isn’t worth the risk compared to the Mets’ ML value. The Orioles are too risky to take here, especially considering the difference in starting pitching and the -150 price of getting a run and a half.

BET OVER 9 (-120).

Both teams are trending toward the Over. The Orioles are 4-3 O/U in their last 7 performances and have scored 17 runs over their last 3 games. They have given up at least 6 runs in 5 of their last 7 contests as well.

The Mets have gone Over in 4 straight games, allowing a total of 23 runs in those while scoring 29. New York is 9-1 O/U in its last 10 games, too.

BACK OVER 9 (-120).

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