Bryan Armetta offers up a preview, prediction and pick for Friday’s game between the Philadelphia Phillies and the San Diego Padres.

Two National League contenders are set for a showdown in SoCal. The Phillies enter Friday atop the NL East at 54-39. However, they’ll have their work cut out for them this weekend against the 50-43 Padres. Can Philadelphia maintain their divisional lead, or will San Diego keep pace in the loaded NL West? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s matchup between the Phillies and Padres.

The Phillies are favorites (-167) over the, with the over/under set at eight runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s contest.

Phillies vs. Padres prediction, preview

While both offenses taking the field possess plenty of star power, it’s safe to say that neither has lived up to expectations. The Phillies are averaging the ninth-most runs per game in baseball (4.62). That’s nothing to sneeze at, but a decrease compared to their output during the past three seasons. On the road, Philadelphia plummets all the way down to 18th in scoring. Just three hitters have recorded a wRC+ above 110: Kyle Schwarber (158), Bryce Harper (129) and Trea Turner (118).

As inconsistent as the Phillies have been at the plate, tonight’s matchup looks promising. San Diego will send rookie Ryan Bergert to the mound, making his ninth appearance of 2025. Granted, the righty has notched a stellar 2.67 ERA and 1.15 WHIP during those outings. Still, he’s rarely asked to pitch more than a handful of innings. Five Philadelphia hitters are slugging above .500 against four-seam fastballs, which Bergert has thrown on 49% of his pitches. The 25-year-old is making his first start since June 24th, having spent time on the IL due to a forearm contusion.

For the visitors, it’ll be former All-Star Ranger Suarez on the bump. Despite missing time due to a lower back soreness, the veteran has been phenomenal this season. In 11 starts made since May 10th, the southpaw owns an MLB-best 1.23 ERA to go with 67 strikeouts. That bodes well going into this meeting with a rudderless Padres lineup. Over the past month, San Diego has scored the fourth-fewest runs in baseball (96). In that time, the Friars own the league’s 11th-lowest OPS against left-handed pitching (.700).

Phillies vs. Padres pick, best bet

Best Bet: Phillies -1.5 (+103)

In spite of Bergert’s unexpected success, there is a real pitching disparity on the mound tonight. To make matters worse for the Padres, this lineup has scored more than four runs only once in its last 11 games. Expect a comfortable win for the visiting Phillies on Friday.