Bryan Armetta offers up a preview, prediction and pick for Saturday’s game between the Philadelphia Phillies and the San Diego Padres.
A showdown between National League heavyweights is on tap for Saturday in SoCal. The visiting Phillies enter tonight atop the NL East at 54-40. They’ll hope to keep the good times rolling against a Padres squad battling it out in the loaded NL West. Which of these two contenders will come out on top in this potential playoff preview? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Saturday’s matchup between the Phillies and the Padres.
The Phillies are favorites (-168) over the Padres, with the over/under 7.5 set at runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s contest.
Phillies vs. Padres prediction, preview
In a league filled with standout arms, Zack Wheeler might be the most consistent. Since 2021, the three-time All-Star has posted an ERA of 2.85 while tossing more innings than every pitcher other than Logan Webb. That level of production and durability is rare nowadays, placing the 35-year-old in an elite group of aces. This season, the veteran has notched a 2.17 ERA while leading the league in WHIP (0.85) and strikeouts (148). That’s bad news for a Padres squad that’s scored 141 runs since June 1st, the fifth-lowest mark in baseball.
Granted, it’s fair to say that San Diego has underperformed its collective talent. After all, this group of hitters includes eight former (or current) All-Stars. However, several big names have underperformed, including Jackson Merrill (103 wRC+), Xander Bogaerts (102 wRC+) and Luis Arraez (102 wRC+). Unsurprisingly, the Padres own baseball’s seventh-lowest OPS against right-handed pitching this season (.696). When Wheeler faced the Friars in June, he tossed eight scoreless innings while striking out ten batters.
The key to San Diego’s success tonight will likely come down to starter Yu Darvish. An elbow injury kept the veteran out of action for most of the first half. Fortunately, he was able to make his return on Monday against the Diamondbacks (3.2 IP, 2 ER). While it wasn’t a spectacular debut, the righty should be more comfortable on the mound tonight. It helps that Darvish has logged a 2.13 ERA over eight career appearances vs. the Phillies. On the road, Philadelphia is averaging the 12th-fewest runs per game in baseball (4.10). In addition, the Fightins have scored three runs or less in four of their previous five outings.
Phillies vs. Padres pick, best bet
Best Bet: Phillies vs. Padres total runs UNDER 7.5 (-119)
The Phillies are the more talented team with an edge on the mound. However, at -168 on the money line, there’s more value to be had elsewhere. The bet that makes the most sense is the under. Philadelphia has scored four runs or less in over 55% of their contests this season. San Diego’s hitting struggles will likely continue against Wheeler. Keeping all of that in mind, it’s difficult to envision much scoring at Petco Park tonight.