Updated Red Sox playoff odds after comeback vs. Rays extends win streak originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

The Boston Red Sox extended their win streak to seven games Thursday night with a comeback victory over the Tampa Bay Rays at Fenway Park, and with a 50-45 record, they’re now five games over .500 for the first time all season.

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The Red Sox trailed 3-1 going into the seventh inning and scored three runs. Veteran closer Aroldis Chapman came in for the ninth inning and earned his 16th save of the season to secure a 4-3 victory.

The Red Sox are tied with the Toronto Blue Jays and Houston Astros for the best record in baseball since June 7 at 20-10.

It’s not only one thing driving the Red Sox’ success. They lead the major leagues in runs scored with 172 since June 7, and they also have the best ERA (3.52) during that span. Top prospect Roman Anthony has a seven-game hit streak and the starting rotation is getting more consistently good starts from guys like Lucas Giolito and Brayan Bello.

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Perhaps the most impressive aspect of this streak is the Red Sox are doing it without one of their best players in Alex Bregman. The star third baseman hasn’t played since May 23 due to a quad injury, but he’s expected to return in this series against the Rays.

While this win streak has increased the optimism surrounding the Red Sox and their potential for the rest of the season, making the playoffs is still going to be a tough challenge.

The Red Sox entered Friday with a one-game lead over the Seattle Mariners for the third and final wild card playoff spot in the American League.

But according to FanGraphs’ model, the Red Sox still have a less than 50-50 chance to reach the postseason for the first time since 2021.

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Why just a 41.3 percent chance to clinch a playoff berth?

Well, the Red Sox have the toughest remaining schedule of any team, with their opponents having a .519 combined win percentage this season, per Tankathon.

The Red Sox have benefited from an easy schedule the last couple weeks that included back-to-back series vs. the Washington Nationals and Colorado Rockies.

Boston’s schedule gets a lot tougher as the July 31 trade deadline approaches. The Red Sox have three more games in their current series versus the Rays, and they also have to play the Chicago Cubs, Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers and Houston Astros through Aug. 3.

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This 18-game stretch could easily determine the fate of this Red Sox team as far as its chances of making the playoffs.

One thing the front office can do to bolster the Red Sox’ chances of staying in the playoff race is being buyers at the trade deadline. Adding another impact starting pitcher would be a huge upgrade for the Red Sox.