Aiva Arquette earned his money on Sunday, but it is the upcoming gut check that will cement his legacy.

Today’s pride of Kalaepohaku was taken seventh in Major League Baseball’s First-Year Player Draft by the Miami Marlins. It is the highest draft choice a position player from our little island nation has produced and quite an honor. Other than the big monetary bonus — last year’s selection at that spot signed for nearly $7 million — it is the only guarantee he gets. His future now moves to the bus rides in the minor leagues, where baseball careers are really determined.

Moneyball darling Billy Beane became famous in part for calling the playoffs a crapshoot while turning the draft into a science, but the reverse is probably more true, as only nine of his 38 first-round picks made it to Oakland and four of his seven first-rounders in the 2002 draft never made an impact on the big club.

That’s not to pick on Beane — he was among the best. Nobody ever nails the draft, the closest might have been the immortal Tony Reagins with the Angels in 2009, when he lucked into Randal Grichuk and Mike Trout with the 24th and 25th picks and followed it up with Tyler Skaggs, Garrett Richards and Patrick Corbin. But that was a long time and many failures ago.

Sid Fernandez, Hawaii’s greatest MLB pitcher, lasted to the third round as a prepster out of Kaiser in 1981. Four of the lefties taken ahead of him, two of them high schoolers, never amounted to anything. The top lefty pitcher in the draft, Daryl Boston, became an outfielder. Fernandez became the sixth-best pitcher and third-best lefty from his class behind Mark Langston and Frank Viola. All Sid Fernandez did since suiting up for the Rookie League Lethbridge (Alberta, Canada) Dodgers was make it to the bigs and fashion the third- lowest hits per inning in MLB history behind only Nolan Ryan and Sandy Koufax.

Other Big League Braddahs to make the draft a sham were Shane Victorino in the sixth round in 1999, Isiah Kiner-Falefa in the fourth round in 2013. Victorino became the second best outfielder in his draft class behind No. 2 overall pick Carl Crawford, Kiner-Falefa is the second-best shortstop in his class behind Seattle’s J.P. Crawford.

Don’t miss out on what’s happening!

On the other side of the spectrum, MLB general managers thought Punahou’s Justin Wayne was better than Adam Wainwright in 2000, Waiakea phenom Kodi Medeiros went one pick ahead of Trea Turner in 2014 and ‘Iolani fireballer Dave Masters went 12 spots ahead of Randy Johnson in 1985. Hawaii’s Mike Campbell was selected a pick in front of Pete Incaviglia in 1985 and one selection after the Pirates took Barry Bonds, the Buccos benefiting from the White Sox believing that high school catcher Kurt Brown had more potential than the future home run king. Brown took six years to reach Triple-A and never got his cup of coffee. It is a common refrain in drafts of all sports.

This year’s draft was another strange deal, with the guy I figured was the best high school shortstop slipping to fourth and a pitcher who surrendered a home run to Kamana Nahaku at Les Murakami Stadium just four months ago going second overall. The Golden Spikes Award winner as best college player, Maui’s Wehiwa Aloy, went behind 15 other college players.

I fall on the side of the Golden Spikes voters on that one, but we shall see. It wouldn’t surprise me if Bruin Agbayani of Saint Louis develops into the best player in the class despite waiting for his phone call after the first three rounds. His father passed 132 outfielders in his draft class on his journey through the bushes after being selected in the 30th round of the 1993 draft, so his climb will seem easy.

The draft doesn’t really matter, it’s the work you put in once you get onto the field that counts. I was selfishly a little relieved that the Pittsburgh Pirates passed on Arquette because I know that they have serious problems developing position players by trying to turn everyone into a utility man, but the Marlins are not much better. Miami has not had a first round pick reach the bigs since 2020 and have two shortstops in their system — Starlyn Caba and Andrew Salas — who are younger than the 21-year-old Arquette but apparently can’t hit.

So we will see how high he climbs on Sjarif Goldstein’s weekly baseball report. Let’s hope it is a short trip.

———

Reach Jerry Campany at jcampany@staradvertiser.com.