ANAHEIM, Calif. — Trying to find solutions for the Arizona Diamondbacks this season has kept manager Torey Lovullo up at night, he said on Sunday.
Flashes of brilliant play have failed to sustain a reliable light, and now that the “first half” (really, 97 games) is over, decisions on what direction to take this roster are due in the next couple weeks.
The D-backs are 47-50, trailing the third NL Wild Card spot by 5.5 games as they enter the All-Star break. They snapped a three-game losing streak on Sunday at the Los Angeles Angels to avoid falling to a season-worst five games under .500.
The Diamondbacks have four teams to jump, and their playoff odds sat between 6-11% after Sunday, according to projections from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference and Baseball Prospectus.
It is also high season for trade rumors, which the Diamondbacks are not deaf to. The deadline is July 31.
“Out of my control,” third baseman Eugenio Suarez, a subject of trade speculation, said. “Like right now, I’m happy here and I want to help my team win games and see what happens at the end. It’s not a big deal for me. I wanna play for this team and want to do my best to help the team win and make the playoffs.”
“It’s a real thing,” Lovullo added. “I’ve been on both sides of it, and it’s that time of the year where social media creates an incredible wave of information. These kids are on it. They see it. There’s speculation and that’s really all it is right now. But I feel for the players that are in this clubhouse that don’t want to leave.”
Some of the reasons for Arizona’s shortcomings are obvious. Injuries have put this pitching staff in a tough spot, especially with the bullpen. Losing A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez to season-ending surgeries while recently placing Ryan Thompson, Shelby Miller and Jalen Beeks on the injured list is absurd. The bullpen ERA is 4.94.
Losing ace Corbin Burnes to Tommy John surgery has been a significant blow for a starting rotation that had been trending upwards entering this final series in Anaheim but has gone through ups and downs all year with a 4.47 ERA.
Since the year 2000, there have been five teams (excluding 2020) with a 4.65 team ERA that made the postseason and none since the 2007 Phillies, per Stathead. It is simply too hard to overcome the amount of runs scored against this team.
“I don’t think anybody’s gonna sit here and say we’re in the position that we thought we would be at this point of the year,” starter Merrill Kelly said. “I never like to use the injuries as an excuse because everybody still has to do their job. … But obviously losing the guys we did early, especially in the bullpen, it hurts. Not ideal with the situation we’re in, but we gotta shake it off and regroup.”
Other reasons are tougher to explain.
The D-backs have been an upper-echelon defensive team leading up to this season, and yet they entered Sunday 13th in outs above average and 27th in defensive runs saved this season.
Why Zac Gallen has struggled to this degree is another, considering he’s provided some of the team’s best individual starts but has a gnarly 5.40 ERA. Ryne Nelson and Kelly have been stalwarts, while there’s been inconsistency from Brandon Pfaadt and Eduardo Rodriguez. Not having reliability from the top of the rotation is a hindrance to playing downhill baseball.
The D-backs are 30-18 when they score first and 17-32 when they don’t.
Overall, the Diamondbacks are 4-6 in their last 10 games, 8-12 in their last 20 and 14-16 in their last 30, an encapsulation of their inability to take flight this season.
“I think some tough losses, but the guys are battling,” Nelson said on Friday. “ I’m sure there’s a handful of games where if one or two things go differently, we’re looking at this a little bit differently.”
That’s certainly the case. The D-backs are 11-19 in one-run games and 3-7 in extra innings, both bottom five records in such games in MLB this year. They have an oddly expansive collection of “how did that happen?” losses, which includes blowing a 6-0 lead to Pittsburgh, losing when Suarez hit four home runs against Atlanta, blowing an 11-6 lead to Colorado, blowing a 7-3 lead to Miami and falling after scoring 10 runs in an inning in Chicago.
Despite all of that, Lovullo laid out the case that the Diamondbacks have a quality run in them:
“Our starting pitching has gotten on a really nice roll,” Lovullo said. “We’re averaging over five runs offensively. I’ve seen our defense in spurts improve. Starting pitching and defense keeps you in games. I think we’re a very engaged team. They play hard, they’re focused. There’s a lot of really good qualities to this team and that’s what has me scratching my head at night. Why are we not winning games?
“Of course, the bullpen has taken on injuries, but still they can go out and get outs in big moments, but we haven’t put together all facets of the game and I feel like when we do, we can get on a really nice run.”
“Will they run out of time?” is the question.
The Diamondbacks have to consider what path sets them up for 2026 and 2027. This team has too many cornerstone pieces under contract to “rebuild,” but they can retool for next year and beyond.
Suarez, Josh Naylor, Randal Grichuk, Gallen and Kelly are among their players who will — or in Grichuk’s case can — hit free agency after this season, which has created buzz around the league. It is expected to be a seller’s market, and adding that talent pool to the trade block can change the dynamic of the deadline.
At the same time, the club invested heavily into this group and wants to give it every opportunity to prove this path is worth staying on, which is becoming tougher and tougher to do.
Lovullo said he avoids trade rumors, as the focus is on the 26 players in the clubhouse.
There are 12 games to play before the deadline.
What message can be sent in such a short time?
“It is a hard time right now,” Suarez said. “We’ve been dealing with a lot of injuries, but I still believe in our team, still believe in in what we can do. (The front office) knows how hard we’ve been playing. They know how good we are. They just have to believe in us.”
