The ceremonial first half of the season ended on Sunday and the All-Star break introduces the second half of the MLB season. Although there are only 66 games left, there is still plenty of time for the Padres and their competitors to stake a claim to the postseason.
With a 52-44 record, the Friars are in second place in the NL West. They sit five and half games behind the Dodgers and a half game in front of the Giants. They have a half game lead over those same Giants for the last Wild Card in the NL.
After doing a numbers assessment of the team after their first 96 games, it becomes apparent that the fast start in the first three weeks and the pitching strength has provided the Padres with the cushion they needed to stay afloat in the first half.
Offensive shortcomings
The Padres offense sits at 17th in average (.246), 23rd in OPS (.689), and 17th in OBP (.315) in baseball. Manny Machado leads most Padres offensive categories (HR, RBI, AVG, SLG, OPS). Fernando Tatis Jr. has the best OBP with .366. Tatis is one behind Machado with 16 home runs and Gavin Sheets is third with 14.
It seems obvious that those rankings aren’t what a playoff caliber team needs to maintain any playoff position. With a quick look it becomes obvious what the most pressing issues are with the Padres offense. Catching and left field stand out as the answer for most immediate upgrades needed. The DH position is also sorely lacking and actually has a worse ranking than left field.
The Padres catchers rank 27th in batting average (.195), and 29th in OPS (.561). The left field position sits at 19th in average (.231) and 27th in OPS (.614). The DH position is 28th in average (.207) and 29th in OPS (.573). Gavin Sheets has switched mostly between left field and DH for the Friars, and without his contributions these numbers would be markedly lower.
Considering these difficulties, it is remarkable that the team has maintained a winning record and held a spot that keeps them in playoff contention. Luckily, their offensive squad has mostly stayed healthy, Besides Jackson Merrill’s two stints on the IL, the majority of the offense has been intact. The prolonged slumps by Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts and offensive struggles by Merrill have stunted the offense and forced the rest of the team to try make up the difference.
Pitching history
The back end of the Padres bullpen, termed the Four Horseman by manager Mike Shildt, has combined for a 2.50 ERA for the season. Jason Adam, Adrian Morejon, Jeremiah Estrada and Robert Suarez have been dominant with few hiccups. They have usually held the opponents in close games and sent three (Adam, Morejon and Suarez) to the All-Star Game. It is the first time three relievers from one team has ever made a MLB All-Star Game.
Jason Adam has the lowest ERA (1.70) of all Padres relievers and ranks 6th in baseball for relievers with 40 innings pitched or more. Adrian Morejon is close behind with a 1.85 ERA in four less innings pitched.
The starters have had a roller coaster season so far. While Nick Pivetta (2.88 ERA) has the best starter performance in his 109.1 innings pitched, Dylan Cease has the worst ERA (4.88) in 103.1 innings pitched. Ryan Bergert has performed well in his small sample (2.84 ERA, 31.2 IP) and Michael King was leading the team when he went on the IL in May (2.59 ERA, 55.2 IP). Randy Vásquez has pitched like how a number four or five starter is expected to perform (3.80 ERA, 94.2 IP). Stephen Kolek and Kyle Hart have contributed starts but aren’t currently with the major league team.
Overall, the pitching staff ranks 6th in MLB with a 3.64 ERA. The starters sit at 14th (3.99 ERA) and the relievers 2nd (3.20 ERA).
When considering the status of the team, it is not difficult to envision better things ahead with some help at the bottom of the batting order and a bit more consistency from the starters. Yu Darvish has had two starts since returning from the IL and the most recent report on Michael King is hopeful for an August return. This should shore up the starting ranks and provide more second half depth.
General Manager A.J. Preller is on the clock. The trade deadline is July 31. A catcher, a left fielder/DH and a possible upgrade on the bench would seem likely before the end of the month. Mike Shildt has a reputation for managing second half teams. It was a definite advantage last season and we can keep our fingers crossed it will be for this one as well.