With the first half of the season officially in the rear view mirror, it’s time to forge ahead on what should be an entertaining final two and a half months of Phillies baseball as the team attempts to reach the postseason for the fourth season in a row.

Only one other Phillies era has had at least four straight seasons of reaching the playoffs, the 2007-11 gang, winners of five straight division titles. At 14 games over .500 and holding a half-game lead over the Mets in the NL East, the Phils are in a good position to join that group with a fourth shot at a world championship in the Bryce Harper era.

A number of things went right for the Phillies in the first half, most notably a starting rotation that is the best in baseball. Even without Aaron Nola for most of the season, the team has been carried by Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez and Jesus Luzardo. Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner have been terrific all season, leading an inconsistent offense full of names we all know but don’t entirely trust.

The bullpen… well… let’s just hope help is on the way.

With that in mind, here are 10 predictions on what I think will happen in the second half.

1) The Phillies go middle-of-the-road at the Trade Deadline, get a big-time reliever and a platoon right-handed bat

I’ve heard Dave Dombrowski say with his own lips that the team is focused on acquiring one high leverage reliever this month and that he remains doubtful he will add another bat or a second bullpen piece. However, reporting by Matt Gelb in the Athletic last week indicated Dombrowski is more willing now than in previous summers to make certain high-end prospects available in trades.

While I don’t think Dombrowski will be as inactive as he was in 2023, I also don’t think there is going to be a “big splash.” I hope I’m wrong, but my prediction is the team adds a true late-inning reliever and a right-handed platoon bat at the deadline, much like they did a season ago with Carlos Estevez and Austin Hays.

Let’s call it, “The Dombo Special.”

Getting a true closer would make everyone feel much better about the ‘pen, especially once Jose Alvarado returns for the rest of the regular season next month, but I don’t anticipate Dombrowski giving up what’s necessary to obtain a difference-making bat that, in fairness, doesn’t seem to be obviously available.

2) The Phillies DFA Max Kepler

There’s no sugarcoating Max Kepler’s numbers. He’s hitting .210, with a .307 OBP, .371 slugging percentage and a wRC+ of 90 that is actually a shade worse than last year’s awful number (93). Somehow, he’s been worth 0.3 fWAR, although Baseball Reference has his WAR at -0.1.

Kepler’s only saving grace is he’s run into a few homers, one of only five Phillies (Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, Turner and Harper) in double figures (10). Rob Thomson benched him against Nick Pivetta last Sunday, a right-hander, a clear indication Kepler is not even guaranteed to start even against a pitcher that is his platoon strength.

Meanwhile, Justin Crawford continues to pile up the hits in Lehigh Valley, batting .331/.407/.432 with 18 doubles and three triples in 339 PAs. He hits a ton of grounders and I’m not convinced he’s the answer or that he won’t be traded at the deadline. If he’s not dealt, he’ll be on the big league roster in August. Either way, Kepler does not last the season in Philadelphia.

3) The Phillies outfield will finish the season with a negative WAR

Using bWAR, the Phillies’ outfielders have a combined -3.9 WAR, tied with the Chicago White Sox for third-lowest in baseball. Only the Rockies (-5.6) and Royals (-6.4) are worse. Astonishingly, Johan Rojas (0.3) has the highest bWAR of any Phillie outfielder, with Otto Kemp (0.2) the only other player in positive territory.

Even with the addition of Crawford and/or another bat at the deadline, it’s hard to see how the Phillies get their outfielders over the hump.

4) Kyle Schwarber clears the 50 HR mark

Schwarber’s 2025 season has been a model of consistency.

April: .936 OPS, 9 HRs, 23 RBIs
May: 1.047 OPS, 10 HRs, 20 RBIs
June: .756 OPS, 6 HRs, 14 RBIs
July .970 OPS, 5 HRs, 12 RBIs (so far)

Yes, June was a bit down, but he still managed an OPS over .750 and hit some big dingers. He lefts lefties as well as/better than righties, so there’s no real way to get him out. With 30 HRs at the All Star Break, he’s on pace to hit 50, on the nose.

I say he joins Ryan Howard (58) as the only players in franchise history to hit 50+ bombs in a season.

5) Bryce Harper has a .900+ OPS

After his breakout game against the Giants in which he homered and piled up three doubles, the first time in his career he had four extra-base hits in one game, there is hope we will see the “superstar” version of Bryce more frequently in the second half.

It is most needed. While his .825 OPS is among the highest on the team and certainly a good number, the Phillies need Harper to be more than just “good.” His .825 OPS is 83 points below his career .907 average. Harper is capable of hitting those heights again, although it’s been a while. His last month with a .900+ OPS was September of last year, and the last time he had a half-season of .900+ OPS was the first half of 2024.

Perhaps this is a hope as much as a prediction, but I believe Harper will have a .900+ OPS in the second half.

6) Trea Turner leads the league in hits

With a league-best 112 hits, Trea Turner is on pace for 189. No Phillie since Jimmy Rollins in 2007 has had a 200-hit season, and it’s unlikely Turner will become the next. But given how consistent Turner has been this year, I’m predicting he will lead the National League in hits by the end of this year.

7) Andrew Painter never joins the big league rotation

Like the Phillies, I am still high on Painter. He has all the stuff to become a big league rotation ace, and his numbers in AAA are reflective of a pitcher who hadn’t appeared in a professional game in 15 months and is recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Still, Dombrowski and the front office have said from the beginning of the season they planned on Painter being on the big league roster this year, with the timeline most discussed being right around now. But Painter’s adjustment to AAA has not gone as smoothly as anticipated.

In 12 starts (55.2 IP) he has a 5.01 ERA, with 50 strikeouts and 20 walks. He’s given up 11 HRs and his fastball is getting whacked around quite a bit. Frankly, he doesn’t look ready. Having just turned 22 years old, that’s OK. There is no need to rush him, at least not yet.

Unless there’s a dramatic improvement over his next few starts, the Phillies should have Painter focus on building up his arm strength, learning how to pitch to AAA hitters, and go into the off-season with the idea he’ll start 2026 in the big league rotation.

8) Mick Abel is traded

Abel’s brief run with the Phillies this year was instructive. He clearly has a great fastball/curveball combo, but his lack of command and reluctance to throw a third pitch limited his ability to get through big league hitters. However, it’s likely he showed teams enough during his call-up and with his outstanding performance in AAA this year that he’d be worth acquiring at the deadline.

I think it’s a virtual lock Abel is moved in a trade for a reliever as a secondary piece.

9) Bryson Stott is benched for Edmundo Sosa

I’ve been pretty hard on Bryson Stott on social media this week, but it’s only so that we stop trying to talk ourselves into Stott being a star player when he’s shown us over the course of four seasons that he’s a below league-average offensive player.

Since 2022, there have been 148 players to accumulate at least 1,500 plate appearances. During that time, Stott’s wRC+ of 89 ranks 136th and 19th among 20 second basemen over that stretch. He can’t hit big league fastballs. He just can’t.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Stott is involved in a trade this month, and the Phillies would be well within their rights to send him down to the minors to work on his hitting. Right now, Stott is the glove-only utility player. I don’t believe Edmundo Sosa is a long-term everyday player either, but he’s the better option right now.

10) Phillies win NL East, finish 3rd in NL, must play wild card round

Right now, the Phillies have the third-best record in the National League, behind the Dodgers and Cubs. I think the Phils will outlast the Mets and win the NL East, but I believe Chicago and Los Angeles are stronger clubs and will finish with a better record than the Phils, leaving them to face the No. 3 wild card team in the opening round of the postseason, much like they did when they spanked the Marlins in two quick games in Philadelphia.

History will repeat itself this year.

Make sure to check out the latest Hittin’ Season podcast, where John discusses his predictions more in-depth, plus a recap of Kyle Schwarber’s power display in the All Star Swing-Off, and lots more!

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