Let’s not let the sour taste of Sunday’s loss to the Astros ruin the good vibes from the two victories last weekend. A series win over Houston is a great way to start the second half. The deficit in the division is now a very manageable four games and the M’s still hold a 1.5 game lead over the Rays in the Wild Card race. With the trade deadline looming, the pressure is on to maintain their place in the playoff picture in time for reinforcement to arrive in a few weeks.
At a Glance
Brewers
Mariners
Brewers
Mariners
Game 1
Monday, July 21 | 6:40 pm
RHP Brandon Woodruff
RHP George Kirby
43%
57%
Game 2
Tuesday, July 22 | 6:40 pm
RHP Jacob Misiorowski
RHP Logan Gilbert
38%
62%
Game 3
Wednesday, July 23 | 12:40 pm
RHP Quinn Priester
RHP Luis Castillo
45%
55%
*Game odds courtesy of FanGraphs
Team Overview
Overview
Brewers
Mariners
Edge
Overview
Brewers
Mariners
Edge
Batting (wRC+)
101 (7th in NL)
114 (2nd in AL)
Mariners
Fielding (OAA)
23 (2nd)
-19 (14th)
Brewers
Starting Pitching (FIP-)
99 (6th)
103 (8th)
Brewers
Bullpen (FIP-)
94 (4th)
106 (13th)
Brewers
The Brewers are the hottest team in baseball right now. They entered the All-Star break riding a seven-game win streak and swept the Dodgers last weekend to extend their streak to 10. That sweep gave them six wins against Los Angeles in the last two weeks and brought them into a tie atop the NL Central. They’ve been the best team in the majors since the middle of May and their success has largely been driven by their pitching staff; since May 15, they have the lowest team ERA in the NL and the lowest team FIP in baseball. A patchwork rotation has been bolstered by the debut of Jacob Misiorowski, the return of Brandon Woodruff, and the quiet breakouts of Quinn Priester and Chad Patrick. Hey, the M’s will face three of those four starters in this series!
Brewers Lineup
Player
Position
Bats
PA
K%
BB%
ISO
wRC+
Player
Position
Bats
PA
K%
BB%
ISO
wRC+
Brice Turang
2B
L
402
21.1%
10.0%
0.090
104
William Contreras
C
R
405
18.8%
13.8%
0.101
99
Jackson Chourio
RF
R
438
20.5%
4.1%
0.190
108
Christian Yelich
DH
L
395
26.6%
9.4%
0.193
121
Andrew Vaughn
1B
R
223
20.6%
5.8%
0.149
69
Isaac Collins
LF
S
242
23.6%
12.8%
0.137
124
Caleb Durbin
3B
R
285
9.1%
7.0%
0.118
111
Blake Perkins (MiLB)
CF
S
56
30.4%
21.4%
0.091
127
Joey Ortiz
SS
R
331
15.7%
6.0%
0.102
66
The Brewers offense runs through two guys: Jackson Chourio and Christian Yelich. The former is the young phenom who is a foundational piece of the Brewers future and the latter is the superstar they’ve built their recent success around. What’s different about this year is that they’re getting plenty of production from guys up and down their lineup. Those role players aren’t as well known as Chourio or Yelich, but the sum of their contributions has elevated the entire team. The most surprising recent contributor has been Andrew Vaughn. He’s collected hits in seven of the eight games he’s played in a Brewers uniform and driven in 12 runs. He announced his arrival with a massive home run off Yoshinobu Yamamoto in his first Brewers at-bat, and already has two key game-tying ninth-inning hits on his ledger.
Probable Pitchers
Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
Game 1 Pitching Matchup
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Brandon Woodruff
10.1
47.4%
0.0%
42.9%
35.0%
2.61
3.38
George Kirby
54
25.2%
5.4%
15.1%
43.0%
4.50
3.77
RHP Brandon Woodruff
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
41.2%
95.8
118
141
93
0.238
Sinker
21.8%
94.9
100
88
121
0.316
Changeup
19.7%
85.8
106
124
152
0.178
Curveball
7.6%
82.9
95
Slider
9.8%
86.8
100
85
47
0.351
Pitch data from 2023
Brandon Woodruff finally made his return to the majors a few weeks ago after missing more than a year and half with a major shoulder injury. His road to recovery wasn’t easy — an ankle injury and an elbow contusion delayed his rehab twice this spring — but he finally made it back. And he’s been excellent in his two big league starts; he’s struck out 18 in 10.1 innings and has allowed just three runs, all off solo home runs. His fastball velocity is sitting three miles per hour lower than where it was two years ago which is a little worrying. He’s got a pretty deep repertoire but his previous success had always been tied to his elite heater. We’ll see how successful he can be without his best weapon operating at peak effectiveness.
Game 2 Pitching Matchup
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Jacob Misiorowski
25.2
33.7%
11.2%
17.4%
38.9%
2.81
3.83
Logan Gilbert
61
35.3%
6.0%
16.7%
41.3%
3.39
2.96
RHP Jacob Misiorowski
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
53.5%
99.3
127
125
110
0.246
Changeup
4.7%
92.2
Curveball
13.1%
87.4
133
Slider
28.7%
94.4
118
67
57
0.332
Jacob Misiorowski is the latest pitching phenom to burst onto the scene. Spitting triple-digit fastballs with ease, he’s very quickly ascended the minor league ladder and made his big league debut a few weeks ago. His evolution into a premier pitching prospect has come very quickly; he was only sitting in the low 90s as a draftee and he’s only gotten his command figured out in the last few months. With so much emphasis on his heater, the development of his secondary pitches has lagged a bit behind. Like everything else in his repertoire, his slider/cutter is extremely hard and a miniscule number of pitchers have ever thrown a curveball as hard as his. The problem has been the lack of feel for those two breaking balls, and compounded with a very raw changeup, has led to questions about his ability to work through the lineup multiple times. The raw stuff is undeniable, but now he’ll have to figure out how to actually pitch like a big leaguer.
Game 3 Pitching Matchup
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Quinn Priester
94.2
20.4%
8.2%
14.5%
57.8%
3.33
3.96
Luis Castillo
115
21.0%
7.5%
8.8%
41.2%
3.21
3.72
RHP Quinn Priester
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Sinker
42.8%
93.8
103
99
88
0.330
Cutter
17.7%
92.3
85
84
123
0.341
Changeup
2.1%
88.5
Curveball
8.8%
80.6
104
124
122
0.185
Slider
28.5%
85.9
97
101
121
0.267
Quinn Priester made a couple of top 100 prospect lists while he was a prospect in the Pirates organization. A mediocre fastball held him back from reaching his ceiling and Pittsburgh dealt him to the Red Sox last summer in a post-hype prospect swap involving former first-round pick Nick Yorke. He revamped his pitch mix in Boston and was acquired by Milwaukee right as the regular season was starting up. It took a while for him to figure out that new pitch arsenal — his walk rate was an untenable 14.2% through his first seven appearances this year — but he’s settled in as a solid backend starter for the Brewers. His best pitch as a prospect was his curveball, but that breaking ball has taken a bit of a back seat to a new slider and cutter. And because he’s ditched his four-seam fastball in favor of a sinker, his groundball rate has shot up these past two seasons.
The Big Picture:
AL West Standings
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Recent Form
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Recent Form
Astros
57-42
0.576
—
W-L-L-L-W
Mariners
53-46
0.535
4.0
W-W-W-W-L
Rangers
50-50
0.500
7.5
L-W-W-W-L
Angels
49-50
0.495
8.0
W-L-L-L-W
Athletics
42-59
0.416
16.0
W-W-L-W-L
AL Wild Card Standings
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Recent Form
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Recent Form
Yankees
55-44
0.556
+2.0
L-L-L-W-W
Mariners
53-45
0.535
—
W-W-W-W-L
Red Sox
54-47
0.535
—
W-W-L-L-W
Rays
52-48
0.520
1.5
L-L-W-W-L
Rangers
50-50
0.500
3.5
L-W-W-W-L
Fresh off their series loss, the Astros will head to Arizona this week. The Rangers managed to win their series against the Tigers last weekend to claw back to .500; they’ll host the Athletics this week. In the Wild Card race, New York and Tampa Bay both won series last weekend; the Yankees have a huge series against the Blue Jays on tap this week while the Rays host the White Sox. Boston couldn’t keep up with the Cubs last weekend and will head to Philadelphia this week.