The Mariners went 6-6 in their gauntlet of games sandwiching the All-Star break, a decent performance against some of the best teams in baseball. They’re now embarking on a critical road trip ahead of the trade deadline and have three straight series against division foes on the docket. Given the softness of the rest of the American League, and the rising play of the Angels and Rangers, these next 11 games feel a lot more important than they might appear on the surface. A 7-4 record feels like the minimum needed to feel good about the M’s position heading into the dog days of summer.
At a Glance
Mariners
Angels
Mariners
Angels
Game 1
Thursday, July 24 | 6:38 pm
RHP Logan Evans
LHP Yusei Kikuchi
45%
55%
Game 2
Friday, July 25 | 6:38 pm
RHP Bryan Woo
RHP José Soriano
48%
52%
Game 3
Saturday, July 26 | 6:38 pm
RHP George Kirby
LHP Tyler Anderson
57%
43%
Game 4
Sunday, July 27 | 1:07 pm
RHP Logan Gilbert
RHP Kyle Hendricks
60%
40%
*Game odds courtesy of FanGraphs
Team Overview
Overview
Angels
Mariners
Edge
Overview
Angels
Mariners
Edge
Batting (wRC+)
98 (10th in AL)
113 (2nd in AL)
Mariners
Fielding (OAA)
-29 (15th)
-18 (14th)
Mariners
Starting Pitching (FIP-)
108 (11th)
101 (8th)
Mariners
Bullpen (FIP-)
117 (15th)
105 (12th)
Mariners
The Angels have been hanging around on the fringe of the Wild Card race for a few months now. While they’ve clambered back to .500 on a number of occasions, they haven’t been able to cross that threshold. As recently as last weekend, they were a game under .500 and looked like a team that might be buying at the trade deadline — or at least not selling. Unfortunately, they were swept by the Mets earlier this week, which makes this series against the M’s and their next series against the Rangers extremely important for their trade deadline plans.
Angels Lineup
Player
Position
Bats
PA
K%
BB%
ISO
wRC+
Player
Position
Bats
PA
K%
BB%
ISO
wRC+
Zach Neto
SS
R
359
25.9%
5.3%
0.198
118
Nolan Schanuel
1B
L
422
11.8%
10.9%
0.124
115
Mike Trout
DH
R
329
28.0%
15.2%
0.230
124
Taylor Ward
LF
R
434
26.5%
9.9%
0.256
117
Jo Adell
CF
R
351
24.5%
6.8%
0.241
117
Yoán Moncada
3B
S
146
25.3%
11.6%
0.254
124
Jorge Soler
RF
R
315
29.8%
8.9%
0.172
89
Logan O’Hoppe
C
R
314
31.8%
4.5%
0.202
98
Luis Rengifo
2B
S
359
18.1%
5.3%
0.080
67
The lineup has been the one consistent strength for the Angels over the last few months. Since May, they’ve scored 4.7 runs per game and have a 105 wRC+ as a team, both above average marks in the American League. This uptick in production has coincided with the return of Zach Neto from his spring shoulder injury, the health of Mike Trout, and the breakout of Jo Adell. Along with the solid veteran production of Taylor Ward and a few steps forward from Nolan Schanuel, the Angels have a very potent top of the lineup. The bottom half isn’t as impressive, though the potential for damage is certainly there; both Jorge Soler and Logan O’Hoppe have struggled this season but both can put a ball into the seats on a moment’s notice.
Probable Pitchers
Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images
Game 1 Pitching Matchup
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Yusei Kikuchi
118
24.4%
10.3%
10.5%
39.7%
3.13
3.90
Logan Evans
54.1
17.0%
7.7%
13.4%
39.1%
3.81
4.88
LHP Yusei Kikuchi
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
35.3%
94.8
100
107
103
0.333
Changeup
12.6%
85.8
99
88
138
0.273
Curveball
14.0%
80.3
95
92
121
0.220
Slider
36.7%
87.5
91
71
88
0.401
After finding some success in Toronto and a second-half stint with the Astros last year, Yusei Kikuchi signed a three-year deal with the Angels to lead their rotation. He’s largely the same pitcher that he was when Seattle first brought him over from Japan with an overpowering fastball and a trio of solid secondary pitches. His fastball has lost about a tick of velocity from where it was last year and he’s now throwing his slider as his primary pitch. That has seemed to erase all the command gains he showed the past few years; his walk rate has increased by more than four points despite him running a career-high zone rate. The topline results are still impressive, however; his ERA is a touch above three with his FIP a touch below four.
Game 2 Pitching Matchup
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
José Soriano
120
20.0%
11.1%
9.4%
67.6%
3.83
3.42
Bryan Woo
120.2
24.3%
4.6%
11.3%
40.1%
2.91
3.53
RHP José Soriano
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
8.0%
97.7
81
117
50
0.391
Sinker
50.6%
97.1
100
121
103
0.355
Splitter
7.1%
92.0
112
101
83
0.257
Curveball
26.9%
85.2
73
135
113
0.251
Slider
7.4%
88.9
115
130
105
0.215
José Soriano is a really tricky pitcher to analyse. He throws harder than almost every other starting pitcher in the majors, has the highest groundball rate of any starter in baseball, and features three pitches with whiff rates north of 30%. Yet, he’s focused on generating weak contact with his sinker rather than racking up strikeouts with his breaking balls, so his strikeout rate is only 20.0% and his mediocre command prevents him from really excelling. That means he’s often working in and out of trouble but doesn’t have the approach to avoid allowing some damage when there’s traffic on the bases.
Game 3 Pitching Matchup
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Tyler Anderson
107.2
18.1%
9.3%
10.7%
30.8%
4.43
4.98
George Kirby
60
24.0%
5.3%
14.0%
45.0%
4.65
3.66
LHP Tyler Anderson
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
37.8%
89.1
93
74
94
0.381
Sinker
3.7%
88.4
86
Cutter
20.7%
84.1
94
70
86
0.309
Changeup
33.9%
78.6
103
133
104
0.300
Slider
3.6%
80.7
103
From a previous series preview:
Way back in 2022, Tyler Anderson enjoyed a late-career breakout with the Dodgers thanks to a revamped changeup. That pitch has continued to hold the foundation of his repertoire in the three years since but his overall results have flagged since joining the Angels. The two other ingredients of his breakout — a 4.8% walk rate and a 6.4% home run rate — have both ballooned in Anaheim, which has led to an ERA and FIP both above four. At this point in his career, he’s a known entity: try to avoid his changeup, crush his four-seamer, and let him get himself into trouble.
Game 4 Pitching Matchup
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Kyle Hendricks
100.2
15.6%
5.8%
11.4%
37.7%
4.92
4.82
Logan Gilbert
67.1
36.3%
5.6%
15.0%
40.5%
3.07
2.68
RHP Kyle Hendricks
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
15.7%
86.6
72
101
134
0.315
Sinker
37.5%
86.2
86
76
108
0.314
Changeup
37.9%
79.3
83
67
130
0.285
Curveball
9.0%
71.9
77
49
45
0.584
From a previous series preview:
For some reason, the Angels chose to sign Kyle Hendricks to a one-year deal this offseason. Something about a veteran presence and eating a bunch of innings while the Angels continue to develop some of their young pitching prospects. Things have gone about as well as could be expected for the 35-year-old soft tosser. He relies on command and guile to try and deceive opposing batters but his pitches have degraded in quality so much that it doesn’t really matter.
The Big Picture:
AL West Standings
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Recent Form
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Recent Form
Astros
60-42
0.588
—
L-W-W-W-W
Mariners
54-48
0.529
6.0
W-L-L-W-L
Rangers
53-50
0.515
7.5
W-L-W-W-W
Angels
49-53
0.480
11.0
L-W-L-L-L
Athletics
42-62
0.404
19.0
W-L-L-L-L
AL Wild Card Standings
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Recent Form
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Recent Form
Yankees
56-46
0.549
+2.0
W-W-L-W-L
Mariners
54-48
0.529
—
W-L-L-W-L
Red Sox
55-49
0.529
—
L-W-L-L-W
Rays
53-50
0.515
1.5
W-L-L-W-L
Rangers
53-50
0.515
1.5
W-L-W-W-W
Guardians
51-50
0.505
2.5
L-W-W-W-W
The Astros swept their series in Arizona which was bad for Seattle’s division hopes but good if you think the M’s and D-Backs are a good fit as trade partners in the next week. Houston returns home to host the Athletics for four games this weekend. The A’s were just swept by the Rangers earlier this week and Texas is now tied with the Rays in the Wild Card standings. The Rangers host the Braves this weekend. Over in the AL East, the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays all lost their series earlier this week. This weekend, New York hosts the Phillies, Boston hosts the Dodgers, and Tampa Bay travels to Cincinnati.