A good comp for Houston is Wake’s SS/CF/3B from last year also drafted in rd 1 (10th), Seaver King. King was arguably a better hitter, in that he hit for more power and struck out less, though his walk rate for college was low. Houston hit for more average, driven by a monster BABIP.
Currently, King is hitting .244/.292/.342 in 366 PAs (A+ and AA). Houston almost certainly will start at low A and should, as a first round pick, destroy that league (like Culpepper and unlike DeBarge). For the record, King’s slash was .295/.367/.385 with 14% K-rate at low A last year, a very mediocre result given his status and age over level (+0.4 yrs). Culpepper’s sss slash was .297/.366/.541 with a 5% K-rate in a tougher park/league for hitters. At Ft. Myers, to make us feel somewhat confident the Twins didn’t totally blow this pick, Houston should put up a good slash (BABIP dependent, though) and strike out less than 10% of the time, the latter being more important. Class A is beneath a first round pick and I’m guessing the only reason these guys are sent there is to get their feet wet under the eyes of the organization.
King was a bad pick, one likely driven by the Nationals not accounting for how Wake’s park affected his stats and perhaps overvaluing his small college stats. When I analyzed him in December he felt more like a 2nd rd pick, so going 10th screamed reach. The Twins to a slightly lesser extent have that issue, too, plus they picked a non-power guy in Marek Houston who strikes out more often (15.4% at Wake vs King’s 12.0%). It’s difficult to see how this is going to work out for the Twins, though it’s possible it can. To me the obvious pick here was HS SS Kayson Cunningham, who went quickly to Arizona afterwards. The Twins seem to be in search of another Keaschall but still don’t understand what made him a good pick two years ago.