Last week, I dropped my top 150 hitters for the rest of the season. By all accounts, it went over pretty well. Together, we saw a number of players come in ranked higher than our preferences, and some were ranked lower than our eyeballs tell us. Formulas and predictions are rarely perfect, but it does give us a good set of data to discuss. You all came with some great thoughts, and it was fun to compare notes.
This week is dedicated to pitchers. I went back into the kitchen to mix up a new blend to consider both starters and relievers together. The goal is to normalize them in a way that is both insightful and useful. I realize many of us play in season-long leagues that don’t have natural break points, but even still, it’s good to take small bites from the apple. For pitchers, I’m ranking them in anticipated “Points per Week” to allow me to stratify them in a meaningful way. I’d prefer “Points per IP” but that artificially isolates SPs and RPs, so I decided to pass.
Once again, my main ingredients are player statistics generated through Sunday and our very own Razzball projections. Both are available on the Razzball site at the hyperlinks provided.
Because it’s so important to everything we do here in Points leagues, don’t forget the scoring. I’m still using the NFBC RazzSlam scoring as illustrated below. Be sure to adjust or compensate anything you read here to be in line with your own formats.
Now that we’ve got the basics laid out, let’s get right to the numbers:
Rank
Name
Team
Avg/Wk
1
Zack Wheeler
PHI
16.95
2
Tarik Skubal
DET
16.61
3
Cole Ragans
KC
15.69
4
Paul Skenes
PIT
15.54
5
Hunter Brown
HOU
15.10
6
Logan Webb
SF
14.88
7
Joe Ryan
MIN
14.77
8
Josh Hader
HOU
14.71
9
Max Fried
NYY
14.52
10
Pablo Lopez
MIN
14.50
11
Framber Valdez
HOU
14.41
12
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
LAD
14.29
13
Carlos Rodon
NYY
14.15
14
Edwin Diaz
NYM
14.27
15
Dylan Cease
SD
14.29
16
Garrett Crochet
BOS
14.03
17
Freddy Peralta
MIL
13.99
18
Andres Munoz
SEA
13.84
19
Chris Sale
ATL
13.96
20
Logan Gilbert
SEA
13.88
21
Nathan Eovaldi
TEX
13.69
22
Aaron Nola
PHI
13.74
23
Michael King
SD
13.54
24
Sonny Gray
STL
13.38
25
Corbin Burnes
ARI
13.43
26
Robert Suarez
SD
13.14
27
Raisel Iglesias
ATL
13.31
28
Cristopher Sanchez
PHI
13.07
29
Bailey Ober
MIN
13.09
30
MacKenzie Gore
WSH
12.90
31
Luis Castillo
SEA
13.00
32
Spencer Schwellenbach
ATL
12.87
33
Mason Miller
ATH
12.77
34
Kevin Gausman
TOR
12.67
35
Seth Lugo
KC
12.64
36
Hunter Greene
CIN
12.41
37
Jesus Luzardo
PHI
12.47
38
Nick Pivetta
SD
12.34
39
Robbie Ray
SF
12.36
40
Tanner Bibee
CLE
12.44
41
Ryan Helsley
STL
12.44
42
Felix Bautista
BAL
12.40
43
Brandon Pfaadt
ARI
12.27
44
Bryce Miller
SEA
12.40
45
Zac Gallen
ARI
12.31
46
Chris Bassitt
TOR
12.15
47
Emmanuel Clase
CLE
12.16
48
Bryan Woo
SEA
12.09
49
Jose Berrios
TOR
12.09
50
Yusei Kikuchi
LAA
11.88
51
Kodai Senga
NYM
11.73
52
Jeff Hoffman
TOR
11.63
53
Jack Flaherty
DET
11.72
54
Michael Wacha
KC
11.61
55
Ronel Blanco
HOU
11.67
56
Kyle Finnegan
WSH
11.50
57
Brady Singer
CIN
11.51
58
Tanner Scott
LAD
11.42
59
Taj Bradley
TB
11.42
60
JP Sears
ATH
11.33
61
Spencer Strider
ATL
11.56
62
Reese Olson
DET
11.23
63
Jhoan Duran
MIN
11.09
64
George Kirby
SEA
11.29
65
David Peterson
NYM
11.09
66
Jacob deGrom
TEX
10.94
67
Luis Severino
ATH
10.96
68
Ryan Pepiot
TB
10.97
69
Nick Lodolo
CIN
10.88
70
Merrill Kelly
ARI
10.79
71
Shota Imanaga
CHC
10.76
72
Ryan Walker
SF
10.81
73
Bowden Francis
TOR
10.78
74
Trevor Megill
MIL
10.76
75
Zach Eflin
BAL
10.74
76
Erick Fedde
STL
10.58
77
Tyler Anderson
LAA
10.53
78
Ranger Suarez
PHI
10.70
79
Jameson Taillon
CHC
10.55
80
Andrew Abbott
CIN
10.54
81
Clay Holmes
NYM
10.22
82
Mitch Keller
PIT
10.32
83
Tanner Houck
BOS
10.33
84
Jose Soriano
LAA
10.20
85
Jake Irvin
WSH
10.15
86
Roki Sasaki
LAD
10.15
87
Gavin Williams
CLE
10.08
88
Shane Baz
TB
10.01
89
Pete Fairbanks
TB
9.89
90
Jeffrey Springs
ATH
9.97
91
Tyler Glasnow
LAD
10.02
92
Kenley Jansen
LAA
9.92
93
Brayan Bello
BOS
9.92
94
Sandy Alcantara
MIA
9.89
95
Aroldis Chapman
BOS
9.69
96
Dean Kremer
BAL
9.69
97
Tylor Megill
NYM
9.56
98
Clarke Schmidt
NYY
9.59
99
Devin Williams
NYY
9.49
100
Emilio Pagan
CIN
9.25
101
Carlos Estevez
KC
9.12
102
Blake Snell
LAD
9.36
103
Drew Rasmussen
TB
9.20
104
Andrew Heaney
PIT
9.15
105
Miles Mikolas
STL
9.19
106
Ben Brown
CHC
9.05
107
Tyler Mahle
TEX
8.71
108
Justin Verlander
SF
8.83
109
Spencer Arrighetti
HOU
8.84
110
Tomoyuki Sugano
BAL
8.52
111
Max Meyer
MIA
8.55
112
Casey Mize
DET
8.46
113
Yu Darvish
SD
8.69
114
Matthew Boyd
CHC
8.45
115
Kris Bubic
KC
8.33
116
Mitchell Parker
WSH
8.40
117
Brandon Woodruff
MIL
8.55
118
Camilo Doval
SF
8.32
119
Kutter Crawford
BOS
8.50
120
Andre Pallante
STL
8.33
121
Nick Martinez
CIN
8.28
122
Zack Littell
TB
8.23
123
Grant Holmes
ATL
8.14
124
Jose Quintana
MIL
8.10
125
Jose Alvarado
PHI
7.97
126
Ben Lively
CLE
8.02
127
Will Vest
DET
8.00
128
Luke Weaver
NYY
7.96
129
Colin Rea
CHC
7.88
130
Jordan Hicks
SF
7.93
131
Kyle Freeland
COL
7.99
132
Ryan Feltner
COL
7.89
133
Sean Manaea
NYM
7.93
134
Luis Gil
NYY
7.92
135
Shohei Ohtani
LAD
7.92
136
Simeon Woods Richardson
MIN
7.80
137
Eduardo Rodriguez
ARI
7.71
138
Nestor Cortes
MIL
7.79
139
Justin Martinez
ARI
7.68
140
Ryan Pressly
CHC
7.69
141
Jonathan Cannon
CHW
7.60
142
Luke Jackson
TEX
7.56
143
David Bednar
PIT
7.61
144
Walker Buehler
BOS
7.43
145
Michael Lorenzen
KC
7.39
146
Griffin Canning
NYM
7.34
147
Joey Cantillo
CLE
7.29
148
Dustin May
LAD
7.22
149
Cade Smith
CLE
7.22
150
AJ Smith-Shawver
ATL
7.17
So, how does this look? I’ll get to my critique in a minute. Be sure to tell me your thoughts below. You know I like the analytics and looking into numbers but to tell the truth, I enjoy our interactions in the comments below even more. Let’s hear it.
How’d You Rank So High?
Here are some pitchers I feel come in too high in the rankings.
Josh Hader (Astros) – This isn’t specifically a concern about Josh Hader, rather a cautionary minute about RPs in general. I love targeting RPs, not just closers, in Points league because they tend to provide a nice base of points each week to counter the occasional blowup we RARELY see from SPs. However, you really need to evaluate and adjust this strategy to your league scoring to understand the full effect. There will be some of you that can benefit greatly from using RPs and others who it will hurt. As long as you know which camp you belong, the more likely you’ll have fewer mistakes. That is the name of the game here!
Carlos Rodon (Yankees) – Let’s be fair and admit Carlos Rodon (#13) has been VERY good so far. Let’s also be fair and admit he hasn’t always been consistently this good for long stretches. So, to think that he’ll just continue at this pace is not realistic. Case in point, his fastball is down a touch, his Swing K% is down a touch, and his HR/FB% is up a touch. So why has he been so good? The main thing I see is his GB% and GB/FB rate is amongst his career best. Once those GBs turn into FBs, along with the summer weather, we’ll be longing for the good ol’ days of April.
Bailey Ober (Twins) – Ober ranks at #29 rest of season despite career lows in K/9, Swing K%, and fastball speed. He’s also seeing career highs in categories like LD% and LOB%. The tea leaves are talking here.
Luis Castillo (Mariners) – Similarly, Castillo comes in at #31 despite a career low in the same three categories (K/9, Swing K%, and fastball speed). Uh oh!
Yusei Kikuchi (Angels) – After 8 starts and 42.1 IP, Kikuchi (#50) is pitching to a career-best 3.83 ERA. That’s 0.70 below his career number. I really don’t see anything in his analytics that suggests he’ll keep up this level of production.
Why You Ranked So Low?
Here are some pitchers I feel may be on the rise.
Sandy Alcantara (Marlins) – Clearly the results haven’t been there yet for Alcantara (#94) but the fastball is still north of 97 mph, and he’s spinning the ball at almost 2300 rpms. Every contending club must be calling the Marlins in hopes of securing his services, and you should be too. The mess we’ve seen so far may be solved simply with a change of scenery. Let him out of jail!
Clarke Schmidt (Yankees) – Clarke Schmidt coming in at #98 feels low to me. He’s only 20.2 IPs into his season and is clearly not dialed in yet, as depicted by his 11% BB%. However, his Fastball speed is solid and now over 12.2 Swinging K%. Time will tell, but it feels like better days are on the horizon.
Brandon Woodruff (Brewers) – Brandon Woodruff (#117) leads the list of SPs due to make their ’25 debut here soon. Woodruff is well into his rehab program and is built up to 80+ pitches as he looks to make the move back to the Brewers this weekend. Let’s not forget, the last time we saw Woodruff he was tossing the pill in line with some of his career best. He’s worth a shot.
Walker Buehler (Red Sox) – It’s been a minute since Walker Buehler (#144) has been an elite SP. Will he ever get back to it? Maybe not, but there are some signs of better days, such as a 20%+ K% and 45%+ GB%. I don’t think you need to make him your #1 priority but if you can buy low here, it may be worth the price.
Charlie Morton (Orioles) – You won’t find Charlie Morton in the list above. He comes in at #165. So why do I include him in this list after such a dreadful start? Well, the O’s just announced they are shifting him to the bullpen. We’ve seen this dance before…long-time starter moves to the pen when it appears he’s started his last game. Next thing we know his fastball speed picks up, his repertoire of pitches equals more Ks and begins throwing in more high-leverage spots or even returns to starts. Either way, there’s potential value here for Points leagues. All I’m saying is, just keep an eye on this situation.
There you go, my inaugural top 150 pitchers (plus one) for the rest of the Points league season. Let me know what you think.
By the way, you may have noticed there’s no “Where We’re Going” segment this week. I warned you last week that the baby birds need to learn to fly on their own. If you’re still not flapping those wings enough, go HERE for help.
As always, you can find me on Twitter/X (@Derek_Favret) and on BlueSky (@dfavret.bsky.social).
Until next time, my friends!