It would be unfair to say that Andrew Painter is late.
The Phillies’ No. 1 prospect, one of the top pitching prospects in the sport and Dave Dombrowski’s lone untouchable at the past three trade deadlines, is not yet in the Majors. Ahead of the 2023 season, it was anticipated he would be with the big league club at some point that season at the tender age of 19. Of course, after injuring his elbow that spring and enduring Tommy John surgery and the subsequent rehab, Painter’s Major League arrival was touted once again this spring.
Dombrowski and Rob Thomson never came out an guaranteed anything, but indicated the now-21-year-old right-hander’s arrival would sometime around the All Star Break.
After all, in 22 starts and 103.2 innings across three levels, topping out at AA Reading, Painter put up a 1.56 ERA in ‘22, amassing a remarkable 155 strikeouts and just 25 walks. He posted a 2.54 ERA in five AA starts that season, featuring an upper 90s fastball and impeccable command of all his pitches.
While Painter remains an elite prospect at 22 years old, his fast track to the big leagues has hit some speed bumps.
On Tuesday night for Lehigh Valley, Painter continued a recent string of unimpressive performances in which his fastball command was not what it needs to be. Just 47 of his 90 pitches were for strikes.
Painter’s final line would have looked much different had Justin Crawford not misplayed a fly ball that flew over his head and cost him two runs, but it’s also fair to say that Painter has been inconsistent during his time in AAA. In 15 starts, he has a 5.00 ERA, with 71 strikeouts, 29 walks and a 1.417 WHIP in 72.0 innings.
Understandably, the Phillies have not called him up yet. Nor should they. But there are important caveats to bear in mind.
No one should be surprised nor concerned by Painter’s season thus far. He is still just 22. Prior to his first outing with Clearwater on April 4, he had not pitched in a minor league game for two years. He is still working his way back from Tommy John and has never been asked to go as deeply into games, nor has he been asked to pitch every fifth day as consistently as he has this season.
It should not be surprising that Painter hasn’t had pin-point command, given the layoff and his lack of minor league innings over the last two ears. His stuff remains elite, but he’s facing older hitters for the first time in his career.
It was perhaps unfair for Phils’ brass to raise the expectations that he would be in the big leagues this season, given all those caveats, but here’s the good news. While it would be great to see him in a Phillies uniform contributing during the heat of a pennant race, they don’t need him right now.
Aaron Nola will be returning within the next week and Taijuan Walker has done an admirable job as the No. 5/6 starter. The rest of the rotation has been outstanding, on the whole, so there is no need to force anything.
Allow Painter to work through his post-TJ surgery in the minors. Don’t force him into a bullpen role in the big leagues. Allow him to build up his innings, work through his command issues, and focus on getting him into the rotation for 2026.
It would have been nice to see him on the big league roster this season, but it is best for all concerned to allow him to finish the minor league season with the Pigs, and if they decide to make him a late September call-up, that’s fine, too.
The Phillies are not forcing the issue, nor should they. Time, for once, is on their side.