The Miami Marlins (56-57) face the Atlanta Braves (47-66) in the opener of a 5-game set Thursday. First pitch from Truist Park in Atlanta is set for 7:15 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Marlins vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Marlins lead 3-2
The Marlins salvaged a game in the 3-game set with the Houston Astros with a 6-4 win Wednesday. 2B Xavier Edwards went 4-for-5 as a catalyst atop the lineup. He’s hitting .323 over the last 30 days with 18 runs scored. The Fish have won 6 of 8. They technically still have a shot at the playoffs as they’re 6 games out of a Wild Card spot.
The Braves suffered a 3-game sweep to the Milwaukee Brewers, capped off by a 5-4 defeat Wednesday. RHP Spencer Strider allowed 5 ER on 11 H in 4 2/3 IP as his struggles continue. They recently lost OF Ronald Acuna Jr. to a calf strain and are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
Marlins at Braves projected starters
RHP Eury Perez vs. RHP Carlos Carrasco
Perez (4-3, 2.70 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 0.94 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 over 50 innings.
Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 5 K in 2-0 win over New York Yankees SaturdayJune 21 vs. Atlanta: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 6 K
Carrasco (2-2, 5.68 ERA) makes his eighth start (10th appearance). He has a 1.53 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 through 38 innings with the Yankees and Braves.
Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 12-11 win over Cincinnati Reds last ThursdayLast 5 starts vs. Miami: 2-2, 4.50 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 19 K in 26 IP
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Marlins at Braves odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:05 p.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML): Marlins -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Braves +100 (bet $100 to win $100)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins -1.5 (+135) | Braves +1.5 (-165)Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)Marlins at Braves picks and predictionsPrediction
Braves 4, Marlins 3
How often do you see Atlanta as the underdog at home against Miami? For the price, I’m taking the BRAVES (+100). Carrasco held the Reds to 3 ER with 5 K’s at Great American Ball Park in his last start. Perez hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER in his last 7 starts, but the Braves should outlast him and pull through late.
I do like the Braves’ price at -165 to keep it within a run, but we’re taking the value on the ML. Double up if you want, but I’ll PASS.
It’s slated to be 80 degrees with a 6-mph breeze blowing left-to-right. I like the way both starters have thrown lately. The Over is just 1-7-2 in the last 10 meetings.
Give me the UNDER 8 (-110).
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