I am beginning to feel like Charlie Brown and the football, with regard to the Diamondbacks bullpen. Every year, I come into spring training with a new sense of vigor and optimism. Surely this year, our relievers won’t such. Surely things will be different this season! Surely they can’t be as terrible as they were last year? But, by mid-August, I inevitably find myself cowering behind the sofa as whatever it is, comes shambling out of the bullpen to blow another late-inning lead for the D-backs.
This year, the D-backs’ bullpen ERA is 4.93, more than half a run higher than last season. That’s ahead only of the Athletics, Rockies and Nationals. The other metrics are hardly any better. FIP: 25th. xFIP: 24th. fWAR: 27th, and 0.2 wins below replacement. In terms of Win Probability, at -327%, the D-backs are dead last in the majors, mostly because no team in the majors has had fewer Shutdowns (relief appearances where Win Probability improves by 6% or more). Certainly, injuries have taken their toll. But we have been raising the red flag about Mike Hazen’s inability to build a… look, I’d settle for mediocre bullpen, for years. So if you’re genuinely surprised by where we are, why don’t you line up to take a punt at this football?
Of the eight men who were in the Arizona bullpen on Opening Day, there’s only one still there: Jalen Beeks, and even he had a spell on the IL earlier. Here’s where we started, and what we have now.
Graveman is the only other name currently in the bullpen, whom you would have expect to see there in spring training, and his 6.32 ERA over seventeen appearances has been thoroughly unimpressive. The remainder are rookies like Kyle Backhus, Andrew Hoffman and Andrew Saalfrank, or dumpster diving veterans John Curtiss, Casey Kelly and Jake Woodford, whose major-league careers combined have been below replacement level by bWAR. Beeks and Graveman will be free-agents at the end of the year: technically, Graveman has a team option for 2026, but at $5 million, there’s no question the team will pay the $100K buyout instead. So the question is: who the heck will be in Arizona’s relief corps next year?
Let’s presume, for now, that the rookies will return. Small sample size, but Backhus, Hoffmann and Woodford have been decent, with a combined ERA of 2.96 – and a couple of bad Backhus outings represent the majority of that. They’re young, cheap and controllable, so would imagine they’ll have a spot, unless something better shows up to take their place. Let’s see what we have on the 40-man roster.
40-man roster (IL department)
We’ll begin with the slew of pitchers on either the 15-day or 60-day injured lists. What are their statuses, with regard to the 2026 campaign?
Kevin Ginkel: The unseemly haste with which Ginkel was thrown onto the 60-day IL does not bode well for his sprained shoulder. The fact Kevin is going for a second opinion on it from a surgeon isn’t good either, though Torey Lovullo said, “I don’t think much will change as far as that diagnosis. It’s gonna be a conservative recovery for him.” But he will need to prove he’s healthy first, before any consideration.Justin Martinez: Initially, it was hoped that Martinez would just need his elbow ligament braced, which offers a shorter rehab time. But once the surgeon went in at the end of June, he needed to go full Tommy John and replace it. If he returns at all, it’s not going to be for more than a token appearance or two in the final month.Christian Montes De Oca: Initially placed on the IL with elbow inflammation, turns out this may be the knock-on effect of an issue elsewhere. For he ended up having surgery on his lower back. “ It’s something that’s been lingering, something that’s been bothering him… since spring training” Lovullo said. It’s possible he might return by the end of the season, but we’ve heard nothing since.A.J. Puk. Unlike Martinez, Puk was able to get away with just the ligament brace procedure, which means a slightly shorter recovery process. However, you’re still looking at a full twelve months. He went under the knife on June 20th, so certainly won’t be ready for Opening Day. Also worth noting that, for both he and Martinez, it’s their second elbow procedure, making recovery more uncertain.Ryan Thompson: Went on the IL July 6th, with a scapular strain in his shoulder. Since then, there’s be no updates, but I imagine he should be fine by spring. The fact he’s still on the 15-day IL is a hopeful sign he could return this year. He’ll be in his final year of arbitration, and likely cost about the same as this year ($2.96m). The only one of the five I feel confident in penciling into the Opening Day 2026 bullpen.
40-man roster (Healthy department)
Then, there are those whose arms have not, as yet fallen off, but are currently sitting in the minors. On that list, I’ll not cover Jeff Brigham, since the 33-year-old will likely be allowed to walk. Starters like Bryce Jarvis are also omitted. But here are the other bullpen candidates:
Juan Burgos: Part of the return from Seattle for Eugenio Suarez, Burgos got a cup of coffee with the Mariners this year. The 25-year old is certainly a candidate to make the bullpen next year, and it helps that his control has steadily improved as he made his way through the minors. Across all levels, he has a 41:13 K:BB in 41 innings of work.Yilber Diaz: Speaking of control… Remember when Diaz made four starts as a 23-year-old in July 2024, with a 4.05 ERA? Well, he’s now grinding away as a reliever down in Double-A, with a severe case of the yips. Diaz has walked 70 batters in 48.1 innings, a huge factor in his 11.36 ERA. Last month, he faced 39 batters and walked more than half of them (20). May be a lost cause.Brandyn Garcia: We’ve already seen Garcia in a couple of outings for Arizona – one went well, and one did not. He is another ex-Mariner, coming to Arizona in the Josh Naylor trade. But he’s another example of the kind of almost-ready arms Mike Hazen was looking for at the deadline. Being a left-hander might help his case, and hitting 98 mph doesn’t hurt either.Drey Jameson: Random weirdness. Jameson has pitched in three MLB games this year. All of them went extra-innings. But again, it’s a long way from how Drey exploded onto the scene, with seven shutout innings in his 2022 debut. It’s been an ugly year for Jameson, with a 7.11 ERA for Reno. Though not officially on the IL, he hasn’t pitched since June, after experiencing elbow tightness on a rehab assignment in the ACL.Juan Morillo: Morillo had his chance, appearing 31 times for the D-backs before the All-Star break. The overall results were fairly mid, with a 4.94 ERA, although his FIP was more than a run better (3.88). Up until his last outing, against the Angels, the numbers were much closer. The experience could be helpful, and there is a reason he was selected in April, although arrivals since may have pushed him down the depth chart.Kyle Nelson: After his last outing – three strikes in fifteen pitches – you’ll be forgiven for swiping left on Nelson. His excellent 2022 campaign (2.19 ERA in 37 innings) seems a long way off, and his progress was derailed by injury last year. As this week showed, it seems like Kyle’s career is going in a different direction from his brother by another mother, Ryne. Well down the depth chart now, I’m afraid.
There is still a very long way to go before Opening Day 2026, but the above does seem to indicate that Hazen will have almost entirely to rebuild the relief arms for 2026. Ryan Thompson might be the only survivor from this year’s Opening Day bullpen. I strongly suspect there will be veteran arms added this winter, because I doubt anyone wants to see us go into the season with a corps of Thompson and a bunch of largely untested rookies. So I’ve little doubt things will change dramatically over the coming months. The remaining games may well be an audition of sorts, to see who has what it takes to retire major-league hitters.
But if Opening Day were tomorrow, here’s who I’d say would be in the Arizona bullpen.
Kyle BackhusJuan BurgosBrandon GarciaAndrew HoffmanChristian Montes De OcaJuan MorilloAndrew SaalfrankRyan Thompson