We have seen the interviews with Jose Alvarado these last few days. He was due back in Philadelphia to begin getting ready to return to the team from his self-inflicted exile and did so with the proper amount of contriteness. He knows that he messed up and owned up to it. We all make mistakes. Alvarado has made his and will have to deal with the consequences. I’m a forgiving man by nature, so I’ve already moved passed that portion of the season and focused on what will happen next.
When Alvarado returns on August 19th, likely after a few warmup outings in Lehigh Valley or whatever minor league post they decide to put him at, he’ll probably be somewhat close to raring to go. One has to imagine that he is desiring of getting back on the field as soon as possible to help the Phillies win and once he is able, he’ll barely be able to contain himself. But there are things that are going to be under the microscope whenever he does get the baseball.
For example, it’s fair to wonder what kind of velocity he’ll have. As noted by Matt Gelb of The Athletic, when he started his season, he was throwing harder than he did last year while also having dropped weight. Alvarado claims that this substance he was using that got him popped in the first place was to lose that weight, not increase his velocity.
“It was simply to lose weight,” Alvarado said in Spanish. “It wasn’t so I can increase my velocity.”
If the velocity that Alvarado had rediscovered this season shown up through the hard work put in in the offseason, one would have to assume that it will reappear, give or take a few appearances on the mound. Without that velocity, what kind of pitcher will Alvarado be? Most will assume that he will have that same newfound velocity, but until it shows up in a game (and in the strikezone), it’s safe to wonder.
Now, once Alvarado is on the mound, the question of usage arises. The team will want to lean on him and what he brings from the left side, but will they be doing that at the expense of the other left handed pitchers? Tanner Banks and Matt Strahm will be the ones holding down meaningful innings should the Phillies make it to the postseason, so preparing them for those situations by thrusting them into them during the season seems the best way of preparation….by why not use Alvarado the bulk of the time? There will be a fine line of overusage of the relievers heading into October that is danced on by the coaching staff, but there is a weapon they haven’t had all season that is suddenly at their disposal in Alvarado. It would make sense to use him as much as possible. One doesn’t want to come right out and say “pitch him until his arm falls off”, but I’m not not saying it.
If the team can thread the needle of using Alvarado while they have him as much as possible while at the same time making sure that they have their own pitchers prepared for the playoffs, that’s a win-win for everyone involved. Alvarado is pitching to convince the team to pick up his option for 2026, so even without the playoffs and all the possible glory that comes from that as a carrot to dangle in front of him, he is financially motivated to pitch well. Why not lean into that motivation?
Yet the temptation to overuse Alvarado is real. Should he come back in the same form (or close to it) as he was prior to his suspension, the team has suddenly added a very real weapon to their bullpen.
While that type of octane coming from the bullpen on a nightly basis during October would have been nice, it is not happening. It will be there in September, so maybe they should be using it, within reason.
What is happening is that Alvarado will be available for a month and a half for a team that, despite what we may want to believe, is still in a bareknuckle brawl for a playoff spot. Even with the rotation sitting atop the league as its best, an effective bullpen is going to be just as important to lockdown victories without the hassle. Adding Alvarado is not the same as trading for someone, but it’s about as close as it can be. If he’s back to his ways we have grown accustomed to, the Phillies are in a good position for September.
There just are some questions.