Just when you thought the Yankees would convert their come-from-behind victory over the Astros into some momentum for the series finale, the offense laid an egg getting no-hit through the first five innings by a starter with a 5.97 ERA en route to a 7-1 loss. They sit just a half-game ahead of the Guardians for the final Wild Card, but there’s no time to sit around feeling sorry for themselves with the Twins rolling into town for a three-game set. Minnesota may have held a deadline fire sale trading away the likes of Jhoan Duran, Carlos Correa, Griffin Jax, Willi Castro and Ty France, but the Yankees cannot fall into the trap of taking it easy against an ostensibly inferior team that has won five of its last seven, buoyed by breakout performances from rookie Luke Keaschall.

Here’s a look at the probable starting pitching matchups.

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Monday: Will Warren vs. Zebby Matthews (7:05 pm ET)

After a nightmare start to open July giving up eight runs in four innings to the Blue Jays, Will Warren has rebounded to hold opponents to two or fewer runs in five of his last six starts, pitching to a 2.87 ERA over that span. He gets into trouble when he nibbles rather than trust that his stuff can play up in the strike zone. He’ll get to two strikes without much resistance but then will spray a couple non-competitive fastballs as he tries to pick off the edges, allowing the hitter back into the count and resulting in walks and inefficient outings. All the same, he has been a stabilizing presence at the back of the rotation, leading all rookies in strikeouts (133) and fWAR (2.0). In 24 starts, Warren is 6-5 with a 4.44 ERA (92 ERA+) and 3.61 FIP in 115.2 innings.

Warren will face off against fellow 2024 débutante Zebby Matthews, drafted out of West Carolina University in the eighth round of the 2022 MLB Draft. Just looking at Matthews’ bloated 5.17 ERA would be misleading — among all pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched, Matthews has the fifth-largest gap between ERA and FIP at almost two-and-a-half runs. He has actually pitched at an elite level since getting bumped into the rotation in the wake of Pablo López’s injury with a 22.9-percent strikeout-minus-walk ratio and 0.94 home runs allowed per nine. The 25-year-old righty leads with a four-seamer that averages 97 mph, while his main strikeout weapon is a devastating slider with a 43.5-percent whiff rate, .187 wOBA against, and the fourth-highest strikeout rate (50.9-percent) of any slider in MLB. In eight starts, Matthews is 3-3 with a 5.17 ERA (83 ERA+), 2.74 FIP, and 48 strikeouts in 38.1 innings.

Tuesday: Carlos Rodón vs. TBD (7:05 pm ET)

Some slight regression from Carlos Rodón has been one of the many culprits for the Yankees’ broad pitching woes. After pitching to a 2.95 ERA through the end of June, Rodón has a 4.64 ERA in six games since the start of July. Six home runs and 19 walks in the span of 33 innings will do that to you. That being said, he is among the least of the Yankees’ concerns on the pitching side, helped by a slider that is fully back to its best and and reintroduced sinker that has helped neutralize lefties. In 24 starts, Rodón is 11-7 with a 3.35 ERA (121 ERA+), 3.89 FIP, and 159 strikeouts in 139.2 innings.

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The Twins have not named a starter for the middle game having dealt away Chris Paddack at the deadline and placed David Festa and Simeon Woods-Richardson on the IL with a shoulder injury and illness, respectively. Reliever Cole Sands is an option as an opener having started three bullpen games already while long man Thomas Hatch could give length having thrown 56 pitches in a win on Wednesday. There’s also a chance they could call up either of the two pitchers they acquired at the deadline and then optioned to Triple-A, both Taj Bradley and Mick Abel possessing top prospect pedigrees and having experienced success at the major league level.

Wednesday: Cam Schlittler vs. Joe Ryan (7:05 pm ET)

Last time out was Cam Schlittler’s best start from a command standpoint with just one walk, and most impressive from a mental strength standpoint, pitching four scoreless after giving up the two-run homer to Jose Altuve in the first inning. His high octane fastball will always give him a floor of effectiveness, the next big step in developing into a major league stalwart is finding a reliable secondary pitch. The issue isn’t so much with shape as it is command — Schlittler struggles mightily to land slider, sweeper, or curveball anywhere below the belt. You’re just going to get punished in the majors if all of your breakers are left up — the principal reason he has surrendered six home runs in five starts. In those five starts, Schlittler is 1-2 with a 4.38 ERA (94 ERA+), 5.90 FIP, and 24 strikeouts in 24.2 innings.

The Red Sox were reportedly on the one yard line of acquiring Joe Ryan just minutes before the deadline, but the two sides could not complete the deal. Now, the Yankees have to face one of the best pitchers in baseball in the series finale, Ryan placing in the top-15 of qualified starters in ERA, FIP, K-BB%, and fWAR. His four-seamer has been the best pitch in baseball according to Statcast’s Run Value metric, clocking in at 25 runs better than average thanks to a 29.3-percent strikeout rate and .180 batting average against. He is precise with his command of the pitch to the edges, which allows the above-average movement of his sweeper and splitter to play up even more. In 23 appearances (22 starts), Ryan is 11-5 with a 2.79 ERA (153 ERA+), 3.19 FIP, and 146 strikeouts in 132.1 innings.