Record: 57-62. Pace: 78-84. Change on 2024: -9.

I didn’t exactly have great expectations going into this one, considering how well Nathan Eovaldi had pitched of late. As noted in the GDT intro, he had won his last six outings, and been almost untouchable over that time. But the D-backs got to him in the early innings, in a way no team this year had managed. Over his first nineteen starts combined, Eovaldi had allowed only five home-runs. So, of course, three of the first twelve Diamondbacks to come to the plate, Tyler Locklear, Corbin Carroll and Geraldo Perdomo all went yard off the Rangers’ ace. Arizona had a 5-0 lead, and looked set to win their fourth in a row.

That lead persisted for a while, and Blaze Alexander got in on the fun, with Arizona’s fourth home-run of the night. In the middle of the sixth inning, the D-backs were 6-1 up. But, probably inevitably, and certainly as we have seen far too often this season, things went pear-shaped for the Diamondbacks’ pitching staff. Ryne Nelson had looked very good through five innings, but demonstrated why he is still a work in progress in the sixth. The Rangers scored four times off Nelson, to make it a one-run game. The Arizona bullpen held somewhat steady, but Andrew Hoffman allowed a lead-off home-run in the ninth to the land mammal known as Rowdy Tellez, tying things up. Arizona had their usual extra-inning futility, and the Manfred Man scored for Texas in the tenth.

I guess, in the end, the final result was probably the one I expected three hours and change ago. But to see the team flush away a game where they had a 95.8 percent chance of victory at one point, is certainly… less than whelming. I’d rather have had a crisp 1-0 loss with Eovaldi shutting us out, and an extra hour to go about my televisual business on a Monday night. But I’m not through the various stages of grief with regard to the 2025 season, and am out the other side. There are positives to be taken away from this, not least the strong performance of Nelson – through the first five innings, anyway.

The Rangers are a team who have been vulnerable to the four-seam fastball this year, and that was obviously the game-plan from Nelson, right from the off. After a 10-pitch at-bat to open the bottom of the first, he settled in nicely, and even proved capable of amping things up when necessary. He touched 98.8 mph on his way to a strikeout of former Diamondbacks Joc Pederson in the first, and leaned heavily on the four-seamer all night. At one point, the Rangers broadcast showed a graphic that Nelson had thrown it 83% of the time. That’s not typical starter behavior, with Eovaldi’s four-pitch mix more like the sort of thing you would expect to see. But it was working, so why change it?

Of course, it was only working until it wasn’t. In that sixth innings, it was notable that Nelson’s velocity was down a few ticks. The three hits Ryne allowed to open the inning came off pitches at 94.4, 95.5 and 94.7 mph. He was also going through the order for the third time, and coming in to tonight’s start, his OPS there was .719, compared to .491 the second time through. Did Torey Lovullo leave him in there a batter too long? Possibly. But I’m not sure I would have a lot of confidence in any of the mid-game options at that point. This feels like one of those “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” games for the manager.

I mean, it is worth pointing out that every reliever we used tonight, in a game with a one-run margin at most, was a rookie. We began with Juan Burgos (5.1 MLB innings), went to Kyle Backhus (16.1 IP), then Andrew Hoffmann (7.1 IP) and finished off with crafty veteran Andrew Saalfrank (23.2 IP). Yes, the final result might not have been what we wanted. But this is the kind of experience which should prove invaluable to them going forward. They will be better pitchers in 2026 and beyond for it, when the results might be of rather more significance. So, while I am disappointed with the outcome, I understand the process, and am fine with it. I’d rather see us lose with rookies than the likes of Kendall Graveman.

Other positives are on the offensive side, where Arizona did better than any other team against Eovaldi. Locklear hit his second home-run of the year to get Arizona in the board on the first, and added a bloop single later. Corbin Carroll reached a new career high with his 26th home-run in the second, and Geraldo Perdomo has now doubled his previous career high, hitting his twelfth homer later in the same inning. All three men had multi-hit games, as did Alek Thomas and Jake McCarthy, and are going to be part of the Diamondbacks for the long term going forward. Maybe Alexander as well, who has certainly taken to third-base, and is making it less of a rush for the team to get Jordan Lawlar promoted.

But somehow, Arizona scored six runs on one hit with RISP. They went 1-for-10 in that situation, continuing their regular struggles in that situation. That’s likely as much a factor in the loss as the pitching, as they once again failed to score the ghost runner in extra innings, dooming the pitchers to fail. They have brought the Manfred Man home just one in their last five chances, that being the sacrifice fly in the 1-0 win over the Pirates. All told, they are hitting .167 (9-for-54) in extra innings this year.

Click here for details, at Fangraphs.com

Trafalgar: Kyle Backhus, +11.2%

Battle of Jutland: Andrew Hoffmann, -29.4%

Battle of Lagos: Gurriel, -18.8%; Nelson, -13.5%; Del Castillo, -10.0%

Despite the loss, it was still a pleasant Gameday Thread, and thanks to all who contributed to an enjoyable and thoughtful discussion. Comment of the night to kilnborn, for another bit of good news.

Same two teams tomorrow at the same, slightly early time, and it’s Disco Nite at the old ballpark, with Anthony DiSclafani starting for the Diamondbacks.