Y’all ever have those days where you look in the mirror and you go “Oof”? Now, I think you’re all beautiful people, and I especially think you’re above the dull comments of “Well that’s me every day ha ha ha.” We all have them though, or at least I hope we all do – how terrible to be alone in this ugliness otherwise. Those days when the way you envision and understand yourself to be is not at all reflected back to you. On those days, I shift straight to acceptance, not unlike when I was three weeks in to recovering from a concussion and convinced I was always just going to be a little stupider for the rest of my life. But inevitably I wake up on another day – sometimes the next day, sometimes days later – and once again recognize the person looking back at me. Order is restored.

The Mariners and the Orioles have both essentially been looking into the same mirror for the last 7-10 years, sometimes taking turns with the ugliness, other times both leaning in together. This season, while the Mariners have been thirst trapping their way through the second half, the Orioles are doing all they can to look anywhere but in that mirror. It’s certainly nowhere near as catastrophic as the Rockies, nor the dedicated slumping of the White Sox, but what is most haunting about the 2025 Orioles is how easy it is to imagine the Mariners in their place. Led by a man who seems to prioritize being the “smartest” person in any room or deal, both are smaller market teams who are beloved by their fanbases but often get lesser billing in baseball. In years past, both had rookie switch-hitting catchers poised for excellence, and a swath of young, talented players they were ushering up through their farm systems. We have neither the time nor the expertise to outline all the things that have led Baltimore to become a funhouse mirror distortion of a successful baseball team, but I can say with certainty that the decision to make them dress once a week in a Chee-do (Cheeto tuxedo, thank you very much) is not helping matters.

The Orioles have done all the things a bad baseball team is supposed to do. They fired their manager! They sold beloved veterans and well-performing bright spots at the deadline! They brought up (some) prospects! This does not make them a good baseball team now, though; merely a bad baseball team behaving with proper contrition. Whether these actions will actually allow them to be a better team in the future remains to be seen. As it stands right now, it’s hard to see them escaping the thicket of ennui that is the bottom half of the AL East.

Let’s put it this way: Yesterday, Camden Chat published an article titled “The Orioles offense has disappeared, making for a dismal August.” It’s currently the most-read piece on their site. It reminds readers that the O’s accumulated 12 hits over the course of their three-game series against the A’s, where they played in a minor league ballpark, and that they are employing Alex Jackson (yes, that Alex Jackson). The only baby-faced Baltimore boy who’s enjoying his season is Kyle Stowers, and he’s doing it while wearing a Miami uniform.

Dean Kremer introduced a splitter to his repertoire last year, giving him a solid weapon to keep left-handed batters at bay. His topline results didn’t dramatically improve, but he did manage to run his highest strikeout rate of his career last season. This year, his strikeout rate is down a few points, but his walk rate is now at a career low, which means his strikeout-to-walk ratio is the best its ever been. Thanks to a fly ball heavy batted ball profile, he allows a few too many home runs, but otherwise is a capable contact manager. The rest of Kremer’s profile is pretty hum drum. His stuff+ scores all hover around league average, his ERA estimators all hover around league average, and his actual ERA ranks 35th out of 57 qualified starters.

Way back in 2021, Trevor Rogers was the runner-up in the NL Rookie of the Year award voting. With 4.3 fWAR during his rookie campaign, it looked like he was going to be a mainstay in the Marlins rotation for years to come. He really struggled in his second full season and then lost nearly all of the 2023 season due to a biceps strain. The Marlins dumped him to the Orioles at the trade deadline last year but he made just four ugly starts for Baltimore before being demoted to Triple-A for the rest of the season. He continued to work out his issues in the minor leagues to start this year, but was recalled in late May and has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since making it back to the big leagues. He’s allowed more than two runs in just one of his 10 starts and very much looks like the pitcher who earned all those accolades five years ago.

From a previous series preview:

After a long and successful career in Japan, Tomoyuki Sugano made the jump from NPB to MLB this offseason. He’s quickly adapted to his new environment and has arguably been the Orioles best starter this year. That’s a bit of a problem because I’m sure Baltimore was expecting Sugano to be more of a back-end starter rather than their frontline ace. To his credit, he’s used his deep repertoire to keep batters off balance, even if he’s not necessarily dominating the competition. His strikeout rate is one of the lowest among qualified starters and he’s mostly surviving by inducing a ton of weak contact. It’s worked so far — his ERA is more than a full run below his FIP — but the sustainability of that kind of profile isn’t very strong.

Did you hear that the Mariners have the highest odds of any team in baseball to win the World Series? Yeah, nope, I didn’t hear that either. I actually can’t hear anything right now beyond a weird rushing sound. And the edges of my vision are getting kind of blurry. Did I get on a carousel and forget? Everything’s feeling kinda wei-