Hey, quick question for ya… why isn’t Nolan Jones a good baseball player?
I was pretty excited when the Guardians acquired Jones for Tyler Freeman shortly before the season. Not because I disliked Tyler Freeman (I was supportive of Freeman getting the second base job to begin 2025), but because it made sense to me to acquire a left-handed hitting right fielder who had put up a 137 wRC+ in 2023 but had a rough 2024 with back issues and some health concerns for a newborn baby. Jones reliably walked and had reliable ISO’s around .250 in the minors, so I figured there would be a reliable offensive production from getting on base and hitting the occasional home run that could help offset more strikeouts than you’d ideally want.
Now, I recognize a .215/.309/.302 slashline and a 76 wRC+ from a guy who has played a lot of centerfield. That’s Myles Straw, folks. But, somehow, it’s not. Those are Nolan Jones’ numbers with the 2025 Cleveland Guardians.
Yet, despite those awful stats, Jones is still carrying a .325 xwOBA, a 47.4% hard-hit rate and an average exit velocity of 91.3. The only player with a better average exit velocity on the Guardians this year is Johnathan Rodriguez and we all know how good he i… ok, so maybe we know that just hitting the ball hard isn’t enough. That might be the first clue in unraveling this mystery.
Jones doesn’t pull many fly balls with pull rates under 36% and fly ball rates under 37%, so he’s generally not maximizing the carry when he does hit a ball hard. But, I’m not sure this explains everything… his groundball rate is still only 41%, and he isn’t necessarily whiffing too much (10% swinging strike rate) nor is his in-zone contact rate particularly notable (85%). He’s been getting slightly unlucky with only a .298 BABIP and 2 fewer home runs than his expected home run total of 5. But, would we be feeling THAT much better about Jones if he had two more home runs than he currently does? Probably not.
The BIG change from 2023’s breakout season for Jones is primarily his barrel rate; he’s gone from 94th percentile in 2023, to about 35th percentile in 2024-2025. When he hits the ball hard, he does so without getting the barrel of the bat involved. He is SIXTEEN runs below average on pitches he sees in the heart of the plate. He is missing doing damage on the few pitches that he could actually do the most damage on.
Is it because he can’t catch up to the heat? Well… again, no. He is among the top three-four hitters on the Guardians in every expected weighted on base value on fastballs over 95 mph, in every category you can think of. So, basically, the Guardians have a hitter who is hitting the ball hard with regularity with nothing to show for it. He doesn’t pull fly balls well enough, he doesn’t get to pitches over the heart of the plate enough, but I still see no reason for things to be as DIRE as they are right now for Jones.
One of the only things I can see that seems dramatically different for Jones on Baseball Savant is that he’s moved his intercept point for the baseballs about three inches closer to the pitcher than in 2023. So, here’s a working theory for you… Jones needs to adjust his stance to make contact with the ball a little later after it is thrown to try to allow the barrel of his bat more time to get through the zone. You can see that he’s been TRYING to do this as his position in the batter’s box and space between his legs in the box have shifted from his 2024 numbers to close to his 2023 numbers this season. And, yet, these changes still haven’t resulted in more barrels. Trying to find that ideal spot is still his best bet, though, in my humble view.
Jones is just such an odd case because I cannot see anything in particular that makes sense of him being almost FIFTY percentage points lower in weighted on-base average than his xwOBA (.277 to .325). This remains one of the great mysteries of the 2025 Guardians’ season, along with “why would you risk multi-million dollar earning potential on micro prop-bets?” and “Is Matt Festa really Bryan Shaw’s essence reincarnated in Paul Sewald’s pitch mix?”
Yesterday, I was upset that Stephen Vogt gave Jones a start over CJ Kayfus. But, after looking at the data, I think it makes sense for Jones to continue to get occasional starts in center and right field vs. right-handed pitchers. Maybe after 2025, it’ll be time to move on from Jones, but I think the numbers indicate this is a player who should eventually figure out how to be a valuable hitter. The process is painful for Jones and for Guardians fans, but I think the right path is still to trust that process for the time being, hoping hitting coaches Grant Fink and Junior Betances can help Jones fix his inability to get the barrel of the bat on the ball.