The St. Louis Cardinals continue to give us hope as the 2025 season continues it’s rollercoaster path for fans. Despite expecting this year to be a “transition”, the Cardinals keep teasing fans and the national media by hanging above the .500 mark, thanks to a couple impressive series wins over the Dodgers and Cubs but then failed to take advantage of a terrible Rockies team again.
Last week, I wrote about the best and worst stretches of the season, and yes, I should have named it “so far” because this team is more than capable of putting up comparable stretches both good and bad. We could have been witnessing another one of those positive runs that make us all believe that a Wild Card berth was within reach until the debacle with Colorado. They have to leapfrog two teams and their playoff chances are sitting at 5.5% according to FanGraphs. Because of this, it is more likely than not that the Cardinals will miss the playoffs for the third consecutive season and Chaim Bloom takes over to make his mark on the franchise in 2026 and beyond.
The trades that took place at the deadline did not look like moves a team that is close to competing would make, as they only received two prospects that have played above high-A ball. The guys they got back in their deals are lottery tickets with intriguing tools that the organization can be patient with in their development and may never become major league pieces. However, the trades needed to be done based on the outlook of this season and the expiring contracts. The Cardinals opted to not trade any of their controllable pieces despite constant (potentially inaccurate) talk about a 40-man roster crunch coming next year. Because of this, the Cardinals may actually be closer to their competitive window than John Mozeliak originally mentioned as he said the team was looking to build for multiple years down the road.
With some aggressive moves, the Cardinals could put themselves back in NL Central contention next season
Of course, there is a lot of unknowns when it comes to Chaim Bloom and how he plans to push the Cardinals back into baseball royalty after he worked to establish farm systems with the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox. With the Red Sox, he was tasked with trading away franchise cornerstone Mookie Betts and others to trim payroll and build through the draft. This was seen as a success as Bloom was able to bring in guys like Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, and Marcelo Mayer before coming over to the St. Louis organization. With the Cardinals, though, he may not have to make a Betts-like decision save for trying to find a suitor for the declining Nolan Arenado. This puts him in some unchartered territory that we have not quite seen him in during his front office career.
By not making any other moves at the deadline, the position player group will largely remain the same in 2026 but trade talks will likely pick up again around names like Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar, and Nolan Gorman while the team tries to find their way. Even if one or two of these guys were dealt, the offense may be similar next year unless the team opts to push JJ Wetherholt and a catcher (Jimmy Crooks) up to the big league roster along with bat-first option Blaze Jordan filling out the group. The team still has to find a solution at third base and that could be Wetherholt, who is starting to work out at the hot corner, or they could try to make a decision between the defensively-struggling Gorman or the versatile Thomas Saggese. This is of course assuming Arenado will not be with the team next year. The outfield will contain Victor Scott II, Alec Burleson, and Jordan Walker who, as a whole, have struggled this season but have each individually shown some areas of growth. The Cardinals will still likely be missing some right-handed pop and a quality versatile backup.
The pitching side is where the most questions remain, in my eyes. I don’t like to spend a lot of time looking at the bullpen because of the volatility of those options and how quality arms can be found late into Spring Training for a discounted rate a la Phil Maton. However, the young guys currently filling the roles have shown some reason for excitement, specifically Riley O’Brien and JoJo Romero, while Kyle Leahy has taken on a middle relief option and the Memphis Shuttle has provided some decent options for short stints. The rotation, though, is a group that may not have those major league options ready just yet. The team will have Matthew Liberatore and Andre Pallante pencilled in but Liberatore will have a workload concern for the end of this year and Pallante has been inconsistent at best. Beside them will be veteran Sonny Gray, who has been solid if unspectacular but may agree to look into waiving his no-trade clause this offseason. Michael McGreevy is finally getting his chance but I think fans are starting to realize he is not the frontline starter that they thought he would be after suffering through Erick Fedde’s starts, but he should still fill out as a quality rotation option.
Leahy has received some extended relief outings and could receive the opportunity to compete for the rotation openings next year. The team would likely love to hand him the role rather than shell out the big bucks for proven starting pitching. Even if that were the case, that is an underwhelming rotation surrounding by an offense that has plenty of question marks of their own. However, if the Cardinals wanted to compete and take advantage of another questionable NL Central, they could do just that. The Brewers Devil Magic has to be running its course as this Milwaukee team somehow has the best record in the majors. The Cubs have some big decisions around their outfield and refused to go all-in this season despite the questions around Kyle Tucker and their starting rotation. The Reds are seeing a Terry Francona bump and could threaten next season but the Pirates still remain years away.
I guess how you feel about the Cardinals’ potential of competing lies within your belief of the current core since it would be hard to believe a major shakeup to the current, inexpensive roster is coming. I believe there are pieces but it is still missing the “oomph” in the lineup and a stopper in the rotation. Willson Contreras currently leads the team with 16 homers, a number that would be third on the Brewers, tied for sixth on the Cubs, second on the Reds, and second on the Pirates. An issue with the Cardinals’ lack of power is that there also does not appear to be many homer-happy prospects knocking on the door (so long Luken Baker) and the team may be expecting guys like Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman to tap into their 30-homer potential.
If the Cardinals want to compete next year, they are going to have to trim some of the redundant fat around the roster and cash in on some big bats around the league. A lefty outfielder would likely have to be on the move, and right now, I believe that should be Lars Nootbaar and be okay with the risk of him popping off elsewhere. In the infield, someone would have to be shipped out and that could be Nolan Gorman and/or Thomas Saggese (plus Arenado) and that could create an everyday spot for JJ Wetherholt to get his own runway. Along with Noot and the infield, the catching depth needs to be figured out somehow. Deciding to sell high on a prospect could net some value back in return, but also deciding to move on from their current catching situation could clear the way for some movement behind the plate. No, this is not an extremely timely concern but it is also an opportunity to fill other roster needs now… If they want to compete.
Depending on how those theoretical moves would open up roster vacancies, the Cardinals could then opt to spend on a short-term contract of a plus-power hitter. With Noot, multiple infielders, and a catcher on the move, this could be a third baseman like Eugenio Suarez or Max Muncy which allows Brendan Donovan to keep a super utility role with Winn, Wetherholt (performance-dependent), and Contreras around the horn. Moving on from Nootbaar also makes the outfielder picture interesting, especially if Ivan Herrera can show he can handle it (if he is truly done catching) in the grass. Herrera and VSII could platoon in the outfield with Herrera spending most of his time as the DH but that leaves an opening for a centerfielder to play against lefties. Enter Luis Robert Jr. If they want to compete.
Pitching-wise, they may have to spend aggressively assuming they do not receive a game-changing arm in a trade. Shane Bieber has somehow never been a Cardinal, but he would be coming off a short year and may not be that ace if he decides to opt out of his deal. Dylan Cease has some of the most electric stuff of the upcoming free agent class, something that has been missing for far too long from the St. Louis pitching staff. Ranger Suarez and Framber Valdez are expensive options who will likely want a long-term deal, while Tyler Mahle or Michael King could be had on short-term, prove it deals. The reliever class also appears to be pretty deep along with Ryan Helsley saying he would be open to coming back to St. Louis in the offseason. My final take on pitching. I was going to write a story on this but could not figure out how I wanted to put it but, it is time for the Cardinals to get aggressive with their minor league pitchers. Too many of them are wasting their bullets at the minor league level and there have been more than a handful of Cardinal pitching prospects go down with year-ending injuries. I am pushing myself into the camp of promote the guys that are “close” and let them learn at the MLB level. If Quinn Mathews and Tink Hence are healthy next, it’s time to promote them and use them while they are healthy. Mathews has struggled with the MLB ball in Triple-A so why not just let him struggle with the MLB ball in the bigs? This is not a long-term strategy as command, velocity, and IQ all do need to be developed at the minor league level, but if they want compete… why not push these guys (or Liam Doyle??) and let them show you what they got.
Obviously, this means I am pretty comfortable with the young core, although I am not against seeing what value Donovan could get on the trade market either. There are a lot of hypotheticals in this case, and extremely farfetched ones at that, but in my eyes, the Cardinals rebuild will not be as long and painful as some of the division neighbors’ were/are. Without a need to tank for a draft pick and an uncertain NL Central, it would be a fun and welcomed surprise to see the Cardinals take advantage of a changing division rather than play to just above the competition. What a way Bloom could enter himself into the leadership role in St. Louis… If they want to compete.