Diamondbacks are keeping away from extremes.

One extreme is zero odds of reaching the playoffs. In the last two series, the Diamondbacks moved away from zero odds. Starting with the game against the Rockies on 8 August, their odds of reaching the playoffs increased from 0.8% to 1.5%.

Another extreme is the odds in the lottery for the first draft pick in 2026 (the three bottom teams evenly share the best odds, but some other teams are in the lottery). In the last two series, the Diamondbacks moved away from the possibility of getting the first pick. Starting with the game against the Rockies on 8 August, their odds of getting top pick in the lottery fell from 6.1% to 1.4%.

The following table shows trends and daily changes (Data from FanGraphs and Tankathon).

Overall, in the last two series the Diamondbacks have become more solidly in the middle of the pack.

The Rockies pitching could make the Diamondbacks batters look like All-Stars.

“Obviously, we projected the Rockies to allow more runs (and a higher wOBA) than any other team. They play home games in Denver, after all, and didn’t have good pitchers to begin with. But they’ve fallen short of those expectations by an enormous margin. With the wOBA they’re allowing – in aggregate – they’re turning the entire opposing team into a lineup of Bryce Harpers or Manny Machados. It’s grim out there, in other words.” — Ben Clemens

While it is grim for Rockies fans, it’s joyous for Diamondbacks fans. After this season’s trade deadline, the Diamondbacks fans are ready for some joy.

Who will win this 4-game series?

Winning a 4-game series is difficult. The Diamondbacks can do it for the following reasons:

Positive momentum replaced negative momentum. Starting from before the sweep of the Rockies (8-10 August), the Diamondbacks’ chances of reaching the playoffs has greatly increased, albeit at a low level.The Diamondbacks offense is awake. Recently, their runs per game increased significantly.The Rockies pitching. Strange as it sounds, they are underperforming their very low expectation of worst pitching in the Majors.

What to look for each day.

Eduardo Rodriguez. In his latest start, he allowed 5 earned runs in 5.1 innings.

Bradley Blalock. In his latest start, he allowed 5 earned runs in 4.2 innings.

These two starters played against each other on 9 August; the Diamondbacks won.

This matchup of starting pitchers is a slight edge to the Diamondbacks.

Brandon Pfaadt. In his latest start, he allowed 3 earned runs in 5 innings.

Tanner Gordon. In his latest start, he allowed 10 earned runs in 4.2 innings.

These two starters played against each other on 10 August; the Diamondbacks won.

This matchup of starting pitchers is advantage Diamondbacks.

Ryne Nelson. In his latest start, he allowed 5 earned runs in 5.1 innings.

Chase Dollander. In his latest start, he allowed 1 earned run in 5 innings against the Cardinals.

This matchup of starting pitchers is advantage Rockies.

Replacement for Anthony DeSclafani, who is on the injured list with right thumb inflamation. Although he was a starter as recently as 2023, this season was was a long reliever who became a starter out of necessity. In his latest start (his fourth start of the season), he allowed 2 earned runs in 3 innings. That start was typical in terms of innings and ERA.

Casey Kelly. He played in Korea from 2019 to 2023. This season in Reno, he started 14 games with an ERA of 5.82. He avoided hard contact in his start on 29 July: SLG was .263 and Hard Hits were 29.4%.

Kyle Freeland. In his latest start, he allowed zero earned runs in 7.1 innings against the Cardinals. His 68 game score was his second highest of the season.

This matchup of starting pitchers is advantage Rockies.