As the San Francisco Giants continue their assault on optimism and conclude their decade-long project to render themselves irrelevant, there’s a hierarchy in opponents you’d like to see them face and the Tampa Bay Rays are not one of those teams.

What I’d like to see is the Giants play a team they have a chance against. They had that teeny-tiny-silly 4-2 blip against the Mets (who are collapsing at nearly the same hilarious rate the Giants did) and Pirates that gave too many people a false sense that the team was still in the playoff chase, but for others it simply demonstrated signs of life. The Giants have worked really, really hard to make it clear to their fans that they are either quite dead or really, really don’t care how bad they look, and the Rays are one of those teams are happy to take advantage.

No, these aren’t the juggernaut Rays, but they’re not quite slouches on the same level as the Pirates. Not long ago, the Tampa Bay Rays were the envy of the sport. Every ownership group wanted ruthless efficiency that netted the most wins for the lowest price. Of course, there was always a bit more to it than that — drafting, developing, and having a strong presence on the international stage — but the Rays, by virtue of competing against the Yankees and Red Sox on a regular basis, came off as a “sustainable” model to copy — or at least namecheck in an interview.

That’s probably still the case, but the bloom has come off the rose to a large degree. After six straight winning seasons, the Rays look like they’ll have their second consecutive losing season. They have managed to develop one breakout star in 21-year old Junior Caminero (127 OPS+), but their pitching — which had been the underpinning of their 6-season run of success — has been decidedly middle of the pack. Literally 15th by ERA (3.90) and fWAR (11.5). Still, at this year’s deadline, they decided to buy and sell, sending away former Giant Zack Littell, but adding Adrian Houser to the mix. They also got Minnesota’s Griffin Jax to bolster their ‘pen.

They’re a creative franchise, and I think that’s why they remain a model. We’ll see if that off-field imagination translates to on-field spontaneity against the Giants. The Rays are 21-16 in interleague play this season (the Giants? 21-21).

For the Giants, this weekend is setup to be the nail in the coffin for optimism about the franchise and Bob Melvin’s tenure. You know, if it goes really bad. The Giants have been swept out of so many series at Oracle Park lately it’s worth wondering if fans are paying to see only one team on a given night, and not the team they bought all that merchandise for; it’s dire times in San Francisco.

Landen Roupp will be making his return from the IL, and that’s probably the only thing fans have to look forward to this weekend — unless you’re a true sicko who’s hoping that Justin Verlander’s start is his final one for the Giants. Logan Webb’s season has started to spin out and Heliot Ramos hasn’t homered in 31 games (142 PA). He has a .592 OPS during that stretch and the Giants have gone 11-20. Meanwhile, Rafael Devers has 449 career plate appearances against the Rays thanks to playing for the Red Sox, but has just a .690 OPS against.

Tampa Bay has won 5 out of 7 series between the two franchises including three in a row. The Giants are on an historic stretch of futility at home. The Rays may not sweep. This trip to San Francisco is the end of a very long road trip (12 games, 4 cities) and a stretch where they’ve played 19 of 22 on the road. They’re 5-11 on the road during this road run, but their two series wins have come in Anaheim and Sacramento, while their losses have been against the Reds, Yankees, and Mariners. So, solid against bad teams and not so much against good teams. I think we know where the Giants fall.

Who: Tampa Bay Rays vs. San Francisco Giants
Where: Oracle Park | San Francisco, California
When: Friday at 7:15pm PT, Saturday at 6:05pm PT, Sunday at 1:05pm PT
National broadcasts: MLB Network simulcasts for out of market viewers (Friday & Sunday)

Projected starters
Friday: Joe Boyle (RHP 1-2, 3.82 ERA) vs. Landen Roupp (RHP 7-6, 3.11 ERA)
Saturday: Adrian Houser (RHP 6-4, 2.84 ERA) vs. Justin Verlander (RHP 1-9, 4.53 ERA)
Sunday: Ryan Pepiot (RHP 8-9, 3.86 ERA) vs. Logan Webb (RHP 10-9, 3.34 ERA)

Rays: 59-63, 4th in AL East; 5.5 GB Wild Card, 12.0 GB ALE

Giants: 59-62, 4th in NLW; 5.0 GB Wild Card, 10.0 GB NLW

Let’s see if I still have reverse jinx powers:

The Giants will win this series and look good doing so.