Meet the 2025 Astros. They look a lot like the 2024 Astros, a team that won their division before taking a sudden tumble in the AL Wild Card Series at the hands of Detroit. This season, at 68-53 (.562), the Astros are looking to top that. They’re first in the AL West, albeit just one game up on a surging Seattle, who is 9-2 in August (at least before they ran into the buzzsaw that is the 2025 Orioles, that is. Heh. Heh.).

As for Houston, despite several noteworthy moves at the Trade Deadline (a Carlos Correa reunion, trading for Ramón Urías, and obtaining lefty OF Jesús Sánchez), they’ve been a little cool since the All-Star break, with a sub-.500 win percentage in July and a 6-6 record in August.

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Injuries have hurt, especially the rotation: starters Ronel Blanco, JP France, Luis García, Hayden Wesneski, and Lance McCullers are all out with injury, and closer Josh Hader just hit the shelf, too. Basically, after Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown, who are both having career years at the top of the rotation, there’s been a lot of uncertainty. Unfortunately for the Orioles, it’s Framber Valdez that they’re facing tonight.

Valdez has finished in the Top 11 of the Cy Young Award voting four times in the last five years, and he’s still posting career-best numbers in WAR, at 4.4 with a large part of the season left to go. The right-hander is 11-5 with a 2.97 ERA in 23 starts, including two complete games. He’s struck out 145 hitters in 145.2 innings, and is allowing a league-fewest 0.5 home runs per game. On the other hand, Valdez has allowed 10 runs (nine earned) in 11.2 innings since August began, and the Orioles have a .270 batting average against him in the past.

We are at the other side of the pitching spectrum when it comes to Brandon Young, who over ten starts in his young career is 0-6 with a 6.70 ERA. Young took a loss against the Athletics last Saturday, allowing six runs on six hits, two of them home runs, over three innings. Young says he knows he has to be better, but I’m not sure the stuff has much room for growth. Hold onto your Stetsons tonight.

Orioles lineup

1. Jackson Holliday 2B
2. Jordan Westburg 3B
3. Gunnar Henderson SS
4. Adley Rutschman C
5. Ryan Mountcastle DH
6. Coby Mayo 1B
7. Jeremiah Jackson RF
8. Dylan Carlson LF
9. Daniel Johnson CF

Astros lineup

1. José Altuve DH
2. Carlos Correa 3B
3. Jesús Sánchez LF
4. Christian Walker 1B
5. Yainer Díaz C
6. Ramón Urías 2B
7. Taylor Trammell CF
8. Mauricio Dubón SS
9. Cam Smith RF