It was one of the most mystifying moves made at the trade deadline: Brock Stewart to the Dodgers for a 28-year-old outfielder named James Outman. Unlike a majority of players acquired by Minnesota at the deadline, Outman was not anything resembling a prospect or youthful building block. He’s what we would call a “post-hype” player — he initially exploded onto the scene, bursting with promise, but has since faded into obscurity.

Two years ago, Outman finished third in the NL Rookie of the Year voting, and appeared to be embedding himself as a cornerstone in the Los Angeles outfield. It speaks volumes that by the time LA traded him, he was serving in a minimally-used bench role, and when the Twins acquired him, they sent him to Triple-A despite his nearly 800 plate appearances in the majors. 

Outman did what you hoped he would do: he went to the minors and hit. Following an 0-for-12 start with the Saints he went on a nine-game hitting streak with six extra-base hits (three homers). Now we’ll get a look at Outman in the big leagues, as the Twins announced on Saturday that he’s been recalled to replace Alan Roden, down with a sprained UCL in his thumb.

Roden came over in the other candidate for most mystifying move at the deadline: trading local legend Louis Varland and his many years of team control to the Blue Jays. In a small sample of 40 plate appearances Roden was doing little to impress, with a .463 OPS and zero walks. So the bar is low for Outman, who unfortunately offers no guarantees of improving upon that production.

From Top to Bottom: James Outman’s Rise and Fall in Los Angeles
Outman’s rise to the majors was a rapid and impressive climb: drafted by the Dodgers in the seventh round in 2018, the outfielder steadily developed his power-speed profile in the minors before breaking out in 2022 with a strong showing at Double-A and Triple-A. That earned him a midseason call-up, where he homered in his first big-league at-bat.

In 2023, Outman was a regular for the 100-win Dodgers. He slashed .248/.353/.437 with 23 homers, 16 steals and 68 walks. Unspectacular but very solid production. He finished third behind Corbin Carroll and Kodai Senga in Rookie of the Year voting. 

In what will sound like a very familiar story to Twins fans, who watched Edouard Julien receive ROTY votes that year on the AL side, Outman was handed the reins following a strong rookie campaign — and completely flopped. He was the Dodgers starting center fielder to open 2024, but slashed .147/.250/.266 through 36 games and was demoted to Triple-A. Since then it’s been nothing but extremely poor performance and diminishing opportunity for Outman. In 200 MLB plate appearances across 2024 and 2025, he has a 45 OPS+ and a negative-0.7 fWAR.

This made him an odd return in a 1-for-1 trade for Stewart, who was finally healthy and dealing out of the Twins bullpen. I suspected at the time that this value swap said more about the state of Stewart’s medicals than Outman being viewed as some untapped asset, and sure enough, Stewart is already on the injured list in LA with shoulder inflammation. 

Still, I don’t doubt that the Twins saw things in Outman they felt they could build on. And if they can turn him into any kind of useful piece, that would be a win, because while they’re overloaded with lefty-swinging outfielders they are far from overloaded with guys who can play a decent center field. 

The Twins indicated that they assigned Outman to Triple-A initially to help him find his timing after playing sparingly for the Dodgers. The small sample of performance would seem to suggest that worked, as the 28-year-old started slow and rapidly improved. But was that two-week stretch enough to truly find his swing in a way that will translate to the majors? We’re about to find out.

The Key to Unlocking Outman’s Upside
For better or worse, Outman is going to swing and miss at a level that’ll make Matt Wallner blush. Even at his best, Outman had one of the highest whiff rates and strikeout rates in baseball. Making contact with regularity is not something he is going to do well, under any circumstance. But if we look at his Statcast profile from 2023, we do find a few things he was doing very well, and Minnesota’s front office would surely like to tap back into those strengths.

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Discipline is the glaring capability that has vanished from Outman’s skill set since 2023. Back then, laying off the junk and drawing walks at a steady clip was a key part of his success, enabling his standout bat speed and barrel rate to carry him despite limited contact. It’s a big part of what currently makes Wallner great. Now it’ll become the most important thing to watch with Outman. 

We know he’s going to strike out a lot. Can he put forth competitive at-bats, draw the occasional walk, and let his raw power do the work? It’s not something the Twins have specialized in; they currently have the sixth-worst team BB-rate in the majors, and were seventh-worst last year.

Welcome the the Post-Hype Desert
While Outman offers some intrigue, it feels hard to have any confidence that the Twins are going to turn around his wayward performance. As I alluded earlier, the post-hype player in his mid-to-late 20s is an all-too-common prototype around here, and in fact, those players are arguably at the crux of this team’s downfall. Minnesota planned around Julien, and José Miranda, and Trevor Larnach, and many others over the course of the past few seasons only to see regression spiral uncontrollably, time and again. Can they get Outman on track and help him find what he lost as a hitter? I wish that this team’s track record gave any reason to believe it. 

Soon enough, we’ll learn whether the Twins can finally flip the script on their hitter development woes. Outman is up, and his Minnesota debut could arrive as soon as Saturday night.