Coming into the 2025 season, the Twins were the odds-on favorite to win the division. Since then… Look, it’s been a weird start to the season. Remember just a couple of weeks ago, when it appeared the season was all but over for the good guys? On April 27, yours truly wrote a piece detailing how statistically unlikely it would be for the Twins to make the playoffs. Well, it appears I may have been hasty, historical precedents aside. Since then, the Twins have reversed their fortunes. Winning eight games in a row will do that, as will nearly an entire pitching staff showing dominance, and hitters remembering how to hit. In fact, according to FanGraphs, the Twins now have a 49.6% chance to make the postseason, and are (almost) right back to where they started.
For those of you who have tuned out at home due to frustrations with ownership or early-season travails, now just might be a good time to tune back in. There’s some fun baseball happening on a nearly nightly basis. Dating back 30 days to April 13, the Twins have gone on a 14-2 run at home. Generally, they look like a fairly complete team once again, capable of being relevant in September—and maybe beyond.
Every team will go through rough patches and others that drive fan elation. The Twins are no exception. They aren’t as good as they have looked over their last couple weeks, and they are almost certainly better than they looked for the first couple weeks of the season (or during their September swoon last season). You know what, though? They are proving worth watching on a nightly basis. Baseball is a game of averages, adjustments, and more than a fair bit of luck. Anything is possible, and the fun is in the journey.
Can the positive trend of the past few weeks continue, and what should fans expect the rest of the way? Let’s look at a few positives that can inform the future.
Expected Wins and Losses
Despite an impressive stretch of play, relative to teams projected to make the playoffs headed into the season, the Twins have struggled to gain ground. Unfortunately, the other three AL Central teams who are trying to win have all gone on torrid runs of their own. Over the past 10 games, despite going 8-2, the Twins kept pace with the Royals, gained just a single game over the Tigers, and picked up two over the Guardians. But, here’s the good news.
By expected results from runs scored and allowed, the Twins should be 23-18 headed into Tuesday’s road opener against the Orioles. That’s the fifth-best expected win-loss rate in the American League, and it’s better than the Royals and Guardians, both of whom have gotten a bit lucky so far. Cleveland even has a negative run differential, despite being six games over .500.
As it stands, comparing the Twins to the rest of the Central, the Twins have the best pitching by fWAR, and only the Tigers are getting more hitter fWAR than the Twins. While past results aren’t necessarily predictive of future performance, this is still a great sign.
Pitching Staff
Speaking of pitching, this is an easy place to celebrate success. After a rocky first turn through the rotation, the Twins’ starting staff has been lights out. Dating back to April 2, among all American League teams, the Twins pitching staff ranks: first in fWAR (6.9), first in FIP (3.25), third in ERA (2.93), third in strikeouts per nine innings (9.3). They have the best walk rate (2.3) and the lowest WHIP (1.11).
Folks, that’s officially elite. Headed into the season, national publications had the Twins among the league leaders in both starting and relief pitching, and despite fans turning this into a punchline on this site and social media, it turns out the prognosticators were correct. The pitching has been a real strength, and there’s no reason to suspect it will implode anytime soon.
Pablo López, Bailey Ober, and Joe Ryan have been a formidable three-headed monster, Chris Paddack has put up a sub-3.00 ERA (although secondary results haven’t been as pretty) and Simeon Woods Richardson has been just fine as a fifth starter. For relievers, Jhoan Duran and Danny Coulombe have been nails, Justin Topa and Louis Varland has been solid, and Brock Stewart and Griffin Jax almost certainly won’t pitch as poorly as they have so far this season.
Hitters
This aspect of the Twins has been (and may continue to be) enigmatic. Similar to the pitching staff, Twins hitters (aside from Harrison Bader and Ty France) began their season ice-cold. Dating back to that same April 2 cutoff we looked at for the pitching staff, though, the hitters have been decidedly average. Which, for those of you paying attention headed into the season, that’s also where national publications had the hitters performing. More recently, looking at just the past month, the Twins have no fewer than six hitters with an .800 OPS or better.
Matt Wallner will be back before too long, and it’s probably fair to assume he will pick up where he left off: mashing baseballs. Byron Buxton has looked like a guy who will receive MVP votes this season. Harrison Bader looks like an All-Star, offensively and defensively. Carlos Correa has shown signs of heating up after the worst start of his professional career. Luke Keaschall looked like he belonged, prior to his injury. Plus, the Twins just got Royce Lewis back—a slugger who, when he’s right, is capable of carrying the team for a week or two at a time. While the results have been inconsistent, the talent level is high, and should be trending up.
Depth
Beyond the guys getting it done with the big-league club, depth is still an exciting part of what fans can look forward to later in the year. On the pitching side, Zebby Matthews and David Festa continue to wait their turn for a chance, whether it’s injury or performance that creates it. Andrew Morris and Travis Adams are behind them should things get truly desperate, or should a swingman or long reliever be needed on the big-league roster.
For hitters, Carson McCusker keeps making opposing pitching pay by crushing longballs and making hard contact to all fields. Keaschall will be back at some point, and we saw what he makes possible on the base paths and at the plate. And, Emmanuel Rodriguez hasn’t shown great results so far this season at Saint Paul, but he’s shown his hitting prowess at each level, so it’s likely a matter of him getting time to find his stroke. He’s been heating up a bit, and could be a realistic option in the second half, assuming health.
Compared to the other AL Central contenders, the Twins have enviable, high-end depth that should help them weather the injuries that will inevitably befall the team. Their pitching should continue to lead the league, and the hitting should be better than they started. This combination of factors, especially assuming continued solid play, should give fans a reason to keep watching all throughout the summer. It’s only a coin-flip that they’ll reach October—but we’d all gladly have flipped that coin not long ago.