Here it is, the moment we’ve all been waiting for. The Milwaukee Brewers, who finally lost a game on Sunday after riding a 14-game win streak dating back to the start of August, sit eight games ahead of the Cubs entering a big five-game, four-day series in Wrigley against the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs have fallen on hard times in recent weeks, with a 7-8 record in August as they now sit at 70-53 on the season as the first seed among NL Wild Card squads, though the Padres are just one game back at 69-54.
The Brewers’ injured list currently features a few prominent pitchers (DL Hall, Logan Henderson, and Robert Gasser) and a few prominent position players (Jackson Chourio, Rhys Hoskins, and Jake Bauers). Of that group of six, Bauers and Gasser are likely the closest to returning, both having mid- to late-August expected return dates. Chourio could be back in a few weeks as he’s expected to begin a rehab assignment in late August, while Hoskins is targeting a September return. Hall, who was diagnosed with an oblique strain on Saturday, still has a TBD return, while Henderson may be done for the season with a flexor tendon strain.
For Chicago, pitchers Jameson Taillon, Michael Soroka, Eli Morgan, and Justin Steele are all out, while catcher Miguel Amaya is the lone position player on the IL. Taillon is tentatively expected to return this series as a starter for one of the games on Monday, while Steele is out for the season. Morgan and Soroka are both TBD with arm injuries, while Amaya suffered a left ankle strain last week, and it’s unclear how long he’ll take to recover.
Milwaukee’s offense is led by Christian Yelich and his .267/.345/.467 line, as he also leads the team with 25 homers and 86 RBIs to go with 71 runs scored and 15 steals. William Contreras has looked great in recent weeks, as he’s now hitting .263/.361/.401 with 13 homers, while Brice Turang, Sal Frelick, Andrew Vaughn, Isaac Collins, Joey Ortiz, Caleb Durbin, and Blake Perkins round out the regulars offensively. As a team, the Brewers are hitting .259/.332/.407 (.739 OPS ranks eighth) with 132 homers (tied for 18th), 638 runs scored (second), and 135 steals (second).
The Cubs’ offense is led by Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki, Michael Busch, Kyle Tucker, Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ, and Nico Hoerner. While some of those guys have struggled at times recently, the offense as a whole is still about as well-rounded as they come. Busch’s .842 OPS leads the team, while PCA and Suzuki are tied for the team lead with 27 homers each. Crow-Armstrong also leads the team with 30 steals, ahead of Tucker’s 25 and Hoerner’s 22. As a team, the Cubs are hitting .251/.321/.431 (.752 OPS ranks sixth) with 170 homers (seventh), 614 runs scored (seventh), and 131 steals (third).
The Brewers’ bullpen features closer Trevor Megill, with Abner Uribe, Nick Mears, Shelby Miller, Jared Koenig, and Grant Anderson typically the arms used to bridge the gap. Aaron Ashby and Tobias Myers are available as long-relief arms. As a staff, the Brewers have a 3.59 team ERA (third), including a 3.41 starter ERA (second) and a 3.85 reliever ERA (12th). They’ve struck out 1,069 batters (eighth) over 1,097 2/3 innings.
Chicago’s bullpen is led in appearances by Caleb Thielbar (44 1/3 innings, 2.23 ERA) and Brad Keller (54 1/3 innings, 2.48 ERA). Daniel Palencia leads the team in saves with 16 while sporting a 1.85 ERA over 43 2/3 innings. Ryan Brasier, Drew Pomeranz, Ben Brown, and deadline additions Andrew Kittredge and Taylor Rogers round out the ‘pen. As a staff, the Cubs have a 3.82 team ERA (ninth), including a 3.84 starter ERA (eighth) and a 3.81 reliever ERA (11th). They’ve struck out 934 batters (28th) over 1,091 2/3 innings.
Monday, August 18 @ 1:20 p.m. (Game 1): Freddy Peralta (2.90 ERA, 3.74 FIP) vs. TBD
Peralta continues to impress this year, as he’s now compiled 3.7 bWAR, tying his career-high mark set back in 2021. Through 25 starts, he leads the league with 14 wins as he’s turned in a 2.90 ERA, 3.74 FIP, and 148 strikeouts across 136 2/3 innings. His last two starts against the Braves and Pirates were strong, as he allowed just one run with 14 strikeouts across 11 innings in a pair of wins. However, his start before that came against these Cubs, as he allowed five runs on five hits and four walks over four innings in a loss. For his career, he’s made 21 appearances (16 starts) against Chicago, with an 8-3 record, 3.42 ERA, and 125 strikeouts across 92 innings.
The Cubs have yet to announce a starter for any of the five games in this series, so what I’m going to do is simply go by their recent rotational arms (with the exception of game two in the doubleheader; more on that below). That means rookie Cade Horton’s spot would come here. Horton, a former first-round pick, has been solid in his debut season, with a 3.07 ERA, 3.74 FIP, and 67 strikeouts across 85 innings over 16 appearances (15 starts). He’s been especially good since the All-Star break, with just one earned run across 28 1/3 innings (0.32 ERA) and 24 strikeouts over five starts, as opposing hitters are batting just .120/.198/.130 against him with only one extra-base hit (a double). This would mark his first career appearance against Milwaukee.
Monday, August 18 @ 7:05 p.m. (Game 2): TBD vs. TBD
The Brewers haven’t yet announced a starter for the second game of the doubleheader, but it seems like the consensus is that we’ll see Chad Patrick’s return to the majors as the 27th man on the roster. Patrick, who turned 27 on Thursday, was demoted simply because there was no longer a clear spot for him in the majors after the return of Brandon Woodruff. In 19 appearances (18 starts) with the Brewers, he turned in a 3.52 ERA, 3.56 FIP, and 95 strikeouts over 94 2/3 innings. In six starts since returning to Triple-A Nashville, he’s 1-3 with a 4.68 ERA and 33 strikeouts over 32 2/3 innings. He made one start against the Cubs this season, back in mid-June, when he went five innings with five strikeouts and four runs allowed in a loss.
If you read the above, this or game one of the doubleheader is looking like a return outing for Jameson Taillon, who hasn’t pitched since late June due to a calf injury. For the season, he’s 7-6 with a 4.44 ERA and 74 strikeouts over 95 1/3 innings. He’s made three rehab starts with the Triple-A Iowa Cubs, allowing eight runs over 13 innings (5.54 ERA) and 11 strikeouts. However, seven of those eight runs came in his first outing, as he’s allowed just one run over the last 10 innings. He’s made 20 career appearances (19 starts) against the Brewers in his career, with a 5-10 record, 3.43 ERA, and 95 strikeouts over 107 2/3 innings.
Tuesday, August 19 @ 7:05 p.m.: Brandon Woodruff (2.06 ERA, 3.62 FIP) vs. TBD
Big Woo has been nothing but stellar in seven starts since returning from his season-and-a-half injury absence. Across 39 1/3 efficient innings, he’s allowed just nine runs (seven homers) with 49 strikeouts. The Brewers have also won all nine of those games. In his last start against Pittsburgh, he went four innings in what was scheduled to be a shorter start, striking out four and allowing no runs on four hits and a pair of walks on 65 pitches. In 18 career appearances (16 starts) against the Cubs, Woodruff has a 2-2 record, 3.13 ERA, and 106 strikeouts over 86 1/3 innings.
Matthew Boyd has turned in a career-year with the Cubs, earning his first All-Star selection as he has a 2.46 ERA, 3.18 FIP, and 126 strikeouts over 142 2/3 innings. He’s taken the loss in three of his last four starts, however, allowing 10 runs over 24 innings (3.75 ERA) with 18 strikeouts against the Brewers, Orioles, Cardinals, and Blue Jays. In four career starts against Milwaukee (including the aforementioned loss), Boyd is 1-2 with a 9.68 ERA and 16 strikeouts over 17 2/3 innings.
Wednesday, August 20 @ 7:05 p.m.: Jacob Misiorowski (3.89 ERA, 3.29 FIP) vs. TBD
Misiorowski, 23, has had a solid rookie showing, with eight starts this season spanning 34 2/3 innings, as his stat line features a 3.89 ERA, 3.29 FIP, and 50 strikeouts. He struggled in his return from injury on Friday night, however, allowing five runs over just 1 1/3 innings as he gave up four hits and three walks with three strikeouts before Milwaukee’s offense picked him up to mount a comeback against the Reds. His only career appearance against the Cubs was the game in which he got injured, as he allowed three runs (two earned) with seven strikeouts over four innings at the end of July.
A former Brewer, Colin Rea is in his second stint with the Cubs, this time as a starter. Through 25 appearances (21 starts), he has a 3.99 ERA, 4.60 FIP, and 90 strikeouts over 121 2/3 innings, a very Colin Rea-esque stat line. He’s looked solid in his last three starts against the Orioles, Cardinals, and Pirates, allowing just four runs over 15 2/3 innings (2.30 ERA) with 15 strikeouts. In two career starts against Milwaukee (both while with the Cubs), Rea is 0-1 with an 8.59 ERA and two strikeouts over 7 1/3 innings.
Thursday, August 21 @ 1:20 p.m.: Quinn Priester (3.48 ERA, 4.32 FIP) vs. TBD
Priester continues to impress in his first year with the Brewers. Through 23 appearances (18 starts), Priester sports an 11-2 record, 3.48 ERA, 4.32 FIP, and 100 strikeouts over 124 innings. His last outing came against the Reds, when he went 5 1/3 innings with two runs allowed and five strikeouts. The Brewers have won each of the last 14 games he’s pitched in, dating all the way back to late May. In three career appearances (one start) against the Cubs, including two this season, Priester is 1-0 with a 7.31 ERA and nine strikeouts over 16 innings.
Shota Imanaga has made 18 starts for the Cubs this season wrapped around a hamstring injury that kept him out for over a month between May and June. While he hasn’t been quite as good as he was in his rookie season, he’s still turned in solid numbers, with a 3.06 ERA, 4.32 FIP, and 85 strikeouts across 103 innings. He went seven innings with one run allowed on three hits and a pair of walks while striking out six against the Pirates in his last start. He’s made three career starts against Milwaukee, with a 1-2 record, 7.20 ERA, and 13 strikeouts over 15 innings.
Monday, August 18 (Game 1): FanDuel Sports Wisconsin, MLB Network (out-of-market viewers), and MLB.TV (out-of-market viewers); listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network
Monday, August 18 (Game 2): FanDuel Sports Wisconsin and MLB.TV (out-of-market viewers); listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network
Tuesday, August 19: FanDuel Sports Wisconsin, FOX 6 in Milwaukee and other local over-the-air stations across Wisconsin (see more details here), and MLB.TV (out-of-market viewers); listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network
Wednesday, August 20: FanDuel Sports Wisconsin and MLB.TV (out-of-market viewers); listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network
Thursday, August 21: FanDuel Sports Wisconsin, MLB Network (out-of-market viewers), and MLB.TV (out-of-market viewers); listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network
This should be a fun series as the Cubs look to show they’re still contenders and the Brewers look to prove they aren’t pretenders (to be clear, I am not among those who believe they’re pretenders). I’ll take Milwaukee to win the series 3-2.